Historian: In the Drindian Empire, censuses were conducted annually to determine the population of each village. Village census records for the last half of the 1600s are remarkably complete. This very completeness makes one point stand out: In five different years, villages overwhelmingly reported significant population declines. Tellingly, each of those five years immediately followed an increase in a certain Drindian tax. This tax, which was assessed on villages, was computed by the central government using the annual census figures. Obviously, whenever the tax went up, villages had an especially powerful economic incentive to minimize the number of people they recorded, and concealing the size of a village’s population from government census takers would have been easy. Therefore, the reported declines probably did not happen.
In the historian’s argument, the two portions in boldface play which of the following roles?The historian’s main conclusion is that the reported population declines probably did not really happen. The first boldface explains why the pattern in the records is noticeable and usable: the records are very complete. The second boldface gives the key reason villages had an incentive to underreport their populations.
So the first gives context for the evidence, and the second directly supports the conclusion.
A. The first provides evidence to support the main conclusion of the historian’s argument; the second presents that conclusion.
This is incorrect. The second boldface is not the conclusion. The conclusion is that the reported declines probably did not happen.
B. The first is a claim which the historian seeks to evaluate; the second presents evidence in order to call that claim into question.
This is incorrect. The historian does not evaluate or question the completeness of the records.
C. The first is a consideration that is advanced to counter evidence that weighs against the historian’s conclusion; the second provides evidence to support that conclusion.
This is partly wrong. The second supports the conclusion, but the first is not used to counter evidence against the historian’s conclusion. It mainly sets up the reliability and completeness of the record pattern.
D. The first provides a context for certain evidence that supports the position that the historian seeks to establish; the second provides evidence to support the main conclusion of the argument.
This is correct. The first explains why the reported pattern can be seen clearly in the records. The second helps explain why the reported declines were likely false: villages had a
financial incentive to underreport population.
E. The first provides a context for certain evidence that supports the position that the historian seeks to establish; the second is the main conclusion of the argument.
This is incorrect. The first part is right, but the second boldface is not the main conclusion.
Answer: (D)