Bunuel
School Board Member: A recent study of high school students in our district found that those who participate in the district's after-school chess program scored significantly higher on the State-mandated Essential Skills in Mathematics (ESM) exam than those who do not. District-wide improvements in average ESM scores are vital to retain public support for the district and to increase the competitiveness of our graduates in the job market. Therefore, the district should mandate participation in the chess program for all high school students.
Which of the following arguments exhibits a flaw similar to the flaw in the reasoning above?
(A)
Financial Regulator: Any bank in our country that handles international wire transfers on behalf of their clients must comply with regulations mandating strict data encryption protocols. Meridian National Bank does not currently have the technical ability to encrypt customer data during wire transfers. Therefore, Meridian National Bank cannot legally provide international wire transfers to their customers.
(B)
Tech Journalist: Industry surveys indicate that tech startups that secure venture capital funding within their first year have significantly higher survival rates than startups that do not secure funding in their first year. High survival rates are vital to maintaining a robust innovation sector and driving job growth. Therefore, any tech startup that secures venture capital funding in its first year is very likely to survive.
(C)
Agricultural Advisor: A recent agricultural study found no evidence of crop failure among organic farms that utilized a new predatory wasp species for pest control. Eliminating crop failure is vital to stabilizing food prices and ensuring national food security. Therefore, commercial farming operations can completely eliminate the risk of crop failure by adopting this pest control method.
(D)
Physician: National health data indicates that adults who run in at least one marathon per year have significantly lower rates of heart disease than those who do not. Reducing heart disease is vital because it is a leading cause of death, and its treatment places a massive burden on the healthcare system. Therefore, the government should require all citizens to annually participate in a marathon.
(E)
Vice Principal: At our school, students who want to enroll in calculus must first take pre-calculus, because the principles taught in pre-calculus help prepare students for the more advanced topics taught in calculus. Therefore, any student who has not taken pre-calculus, here or elsewhere, will not be permitted to enroll in calculus.
Manhattan Prep Official ExplanationStep 1: Identify the QuestionThe phrase
exhibits a flaw indicates that this is a
Find the Flaw question. However, the additional language
similar to the flaw in the reasoning above indicates that this an unusual form of this question type, requiring an answer that imitates the flawed reasoning in the original argument, rather than describing that flaw.
Step 2: Deconstruct the ArgumentThe School Board Member notes that there is a correlation between participation in the district’s after-school chess program and scores on a math exam. The argument concludes that, in order to boost math scores, all students should participate in the chess program.
MAP
students in chess program = higher math scores
higher math scores = important
© mandate that all students participate in chess program
Step 3: Pause and State the GoalOn a standard
Find the Flaw question, the goal is to find an answer that describes a logical fallacy made by the argument. This question poses an additional challenge: the correct answer will present a new argument that commits the same flaw, but in a different context.
Here, the argument observes a correlation between chess program participation and math scores, then concludes that mandating chess for all students will improve scores. This assumes that the correlation is causal in a particular direction: studying chess results in improvements in math scores. However, it is possible that students who are already strong in math are simply more likely to join a chess program. The correct answer will present an argument that commits the same logical fallacy: observing a correlation between an activity and a resulting positive outcome in a self-selected group, and concluding that mandating that activity for everyone will produce the same positive outcome.
Step 4: Work from Wrong to Right(A) This argument is not flawed. Formally, the argument states that if a bank does X they must comply with regulation Y. Meridian cannot follow regulation Y. Therefore, Meridian is not allowed to do X. This is a logically sound argument.
(B) This argument is flawed, but not in the same way as the original argument. The evidence establishes only a relative claim: startups that receive venture capital funding have higher survival rates than those that do not. The conclusion improperly converts that into an absolute claim that any startup receiving early funding is very likely to survive. While this argument also relies on a correlation, it does not mirror the original argument's key flaw of using a correlation to justify requiring everyone to engage in an activity.
(C) This argument is flawed, but not in the same way as the original. It mistakes the lack of evidence of crop failure for evidence that crop failure will not occur. In general, it is a logical fallacy to assume that because there is no evidence that X exists, X must not or cannot exist. This is a common logical error, but not the same as assuming that a correlation is causal.
(D) CORRECT. This choice mirrors the logical fallacy committed by the original argument. If healthier individuals are more likely than those with heart disease to run marathons, then the underlying assumption that running marathons causes reduced heart disease may not hold, and forcing all residents to run marathons will not necessarily improve rates of heart disease. Similarly, if students that are already strong at math are more likely to participate in a chess program, then mandating that all students participate in the chess program will not necessarily improve math scores.
(E) This argument is not flawed. If all students that enroll in calculus must first take pre-calculus, it is logically sound to conclude that students who do not take pre-calculus cannot enroll in calculus.