Thanks again for motivating me! I really struggle with the 30 minute limit which doesn't leave enough time to prove-read the essay.
The following is the most recent essay I wrote.
What do you think?
TopicThe following appeared in a trade publication for the insurance industry:
“Each generation of Americans has lived longer than the ones preceding it, as the national life expectancy has approached 80 years old in recent years. The progress of medical technology shows no sign of abating. Therefore, we can confidently predict that most children born in America in the next decade will live past the age of ninety.”
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate its conclusion.
EssayThe argument claims that one could confidently predict that most children born in America in the next ten years will live past the age of ninety because every generation of Americans has lived longer than the ones preceding it. The argument is based on the premise that the progress of medical technology is not abating. Stated in this way, the argument fails to mention several factors, on the basis of which it could be evaluated. Moreover, it relies on assumptions that are not supported by evidence. Hence, the argument is unconvincing and has several flaws.
First, the argument claims that life expectancy heavily depends on the progress of medical technology. Even if that were true, the author fails to account for several other factors that influence life expectancy. Despite advancements in medical technology, life expectancy is, for instance, certain to decrease in the event of war or a natural catastrophe. Without a throughout analysis of the different factors that contribute to life expectancy, the argument remains flawed.
Second, the argument readily assumes that past development is a good predictor for future development. Clearly, the increasing life expectancy of former generations is not directly correlated to the life expectancy of future generations. Based on the authors assumption, life expectancy is expected to never stop to increase. This conclusion, however, fails to mention that there might, in fact, be a certain age in one's life where the human body is not capable of getting older anymore. In order to strengthen the argument, it is necessary to provide evidence that this age does not exist or can be extended to infinity.
Third, the argument fails to distinguish between life expectancy and the real age of individuals. Life expectancy refers to the average expected age at death. This means, that even in a country with a life expectancy of ninety years, roughly fifty percent of the population will not reach the age of ninety. Therefore, concluding that most children born in the next decade will live past the age of ninety is false.
Finally, the argument provides certain numbers and measures without providing evidence that justifies them. The author claims, for instance, that the life expectancy is 80 years today and will be at a certain level in the future. Moreover, the argument claims that medical technology is advancing, yet fails to provide evidence for this advancement.
In conclusion, the argument is flawed for the above-mentioned reasons and therefore unconvincing. Some of the underlying assumptions are not supported by evidence and the author fails to mention certain key factors. Without additional evidence, the argument remains unsubstantiated and open to debate.