trollmail
I'm fine with this methodology. The one missing piece is the baseline probability of acceptance today. If right now, you think your odds are 30%, then the decline will be 30% - 18% - 15% - 12% over the next four Fridays.
i disagree. i think there are two methods of selection here; (a) replace spots for those that have declined and (b) consideration with round two.
for method a, i agree. no news is bad news. but based on my extrapolated speculation on others' facebook math and ms. kumar's notes, i believe there is a decent proportion of the waitlisted population that will be reconsidered with round 2 folks. to that end, your chances on march 30 may depend on the quality of round 2 applicants and spaces available.
most of this is just meant to be amusing, as i'm sure that we all need distractions from refreshing our inboxes. but speculation aside, i'm going with tempered optimism. i'm not giving up hope until i read a "we regret to inform you..." letter on applyyourself.
it is good to share the waitlist "fever".