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# When people predict that certain result will not take place

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Manager
Joined: 22 Feb 2007
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When people predict that certain result will not take place [#permalink]

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12 Mar 2007, 16:52
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When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.
Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?

(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations.
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials.
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction.

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Director
Joined: 13 Dec 2006
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Location: Indonesia

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13 Mar 2007, 02:55
For me its B

Explanation

A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action. (we are not concern with the goals)
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations. (this supports)(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials. (several trials?- no)(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible. (two prediction are not compared)(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction.

regards,

Amardeep

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Manager
Joined: 22 Feb 2007
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13 Mar 2007, 06:10
It is C

If a certain action leads to a predicted outcome, then to be establish a relationship between the two, we must establish that the same action always leads to the same outcome every time. This principle, if it may be so called , is given in option C

OA and OE pls?

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Senior Manager
Joined: 27 Jul 2006
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13 Mar 2007, 09:02
I wrote a long response that got erased.

In short D is the answer here. It is the only one that SUPPORTS that just because a prediction of an action and its results happens does not mean that the action caused the result.

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Director
Affiliations: FRM Charter holder
Joined: 02 Dec 2006
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Schools: Stanford, Chicago Booth, Babson College

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14 Mar 2007, 03:18
GMAThopeful wrote:
It is C

If a certain action leads to a predicted outcome, then to be establish a relationship between the two, we must establish that the same action always leads to the same outcome every time. This principle, if it may be so called , is given in option C

OA and OE pls?

C is true. But it is out of scope I guess.

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Manager
Joined: 12 Feb 2007
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14 Mar 2007, 09:57
ya I say D, B seems out of scope also, we are not looking to take actions after a prediction, we need a statement that will enforce the idea that a resulting action cannot always be attributed to 1 specific action. That the causal effect cannot always be attributed to 1 thing.

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Senior Manager
Joined: 12 Mar 2007
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14 Mar 2007, 18:44
My vote goes out to D. The logic behind this argument, in my opinion, resides in HongHu's the If X then Y --> non Y then non X (umbralla and sunny) post.

"Y unless X
This is the equivalent of: If non X then Y. Also, if non Y then X.

Example:
I will take an umbralla with me unless it is sunny. If it is not sunny, I will take an umbralla with me. If I don't have an umbralla with me, it must mean that it is sunny. However, if it is sunny, I may or may not take an umbralla with me. If I have my umbralla with me, it may or may not be sunny."

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14 Mar 2007, 18:44
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# When people predict that certain result will not take place

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