tokugawa86
hailmary620
chessmaster1234
Round 3 applicants? Bueller? Bueller?
I am applying. Maybe @aerien can share his "secret" with us, and we all can join him at SOM.
@aerien: Any idea what the yield is looking like for SOM this year? Just trying to predict the open spots for R3/WL applicants. Can you do one of your insanely complex calculations and give us a number?
I would love to see this "horrible guesstimation"
Ok horrible guesstimation time! I'm a little hesitant to do this since it inevitably backfires, but here goes.
If you choose to read this post, realize this is all in good fun. Numbers are taken out of thin air and are in no way tied to adcom data or any actual data for that matter. Read and/or believe everything posted here at your own risk. YMMV.Last year we know SOM had 2,823 applications resulting in a 19% acceptance rate (536 admits) and a yield of 46% (249 people in the class of 2014).
Knowing that SOM wants to increase their class size, I'll guess 2015 will have
275 people max and might be more like 260-265 when all is said and done.
Now we've also heard that R1 saw an increase in apps from last year but we don't know by how much. I'll assume 10% since that seems reasonable to me with the increase in class size, so we'll guess SOM sees 3000-ish apps this year. We also know that last year's yield of 46% was a pretty good jump from years past (an increase of 4 percentage points I think) so we might not expect the yield to raise that much more..maybe to 47 or 48%...if it breaks 50% I think someone in adcom would through a party and then set up tents outside as classrooms (if you've been to campus, you know classrooms are pretty packed right now pre-dating new building opening in January 2014). I'd wait for class of 2016 for the yield to really jump again.
Now to more guesstimated numbers. I'm thinking R1, 2, 3 is split 40%, 50%, 10% for apps. Why is R3 so small? The timeline this year has a one month turn around between app deadline and results. That's not much time for review and interviews! So with that, based on my pick of 3k apps this year, I'm looking at about 1200/1500/300 applications per round. Based on numbers of people in the fb group (minus adcom, current students, cgsm admits that I'll put with R2 admits, and some people who are going elsewhere) I'd guess there's 100-110 people all in, deposit sent, matriculating from R1. Going by that same proportion, I'd guess adcom is looking to fill 130-140 spots in R2 and about 30 in R3/WL (caveat: I feel like adcom would maintain they don't have caps per round, they just accept people and the class size works itself out).
Based on the 19% admit rate from last year, and assuming it's similar this year... if 30% of applicants per round are invited to interview and 63% of those interviewed are admitted (the numbers worked out better for the 19% admit rate this way), combined with a yield between 45 and 50% then you're looking at 285ish admits (including cgsm) in R2 and 50-60ish in R3 and off the WL.
And for the folks who live in Excel spreadsheets, here's what all that said in a simple table:
| aerien's speculation of YSOM applications (All numbers are GUESSES) |
| Round | Applications | Interviewed* | Admitted** | Matriculating*** |
| 1 | 1250 (guess of 40% of total) | 370-380 | 230-240 | 100-110 |
| 2 | 1500 (guess of 50% of total) | 445-455 | 280-290 | 130-140 |
| 3/WL | 300 (guess of 10% of total) | 85-95 | 50-60 | 30ish |
| Total | 3050 (assumes 10% increase from last year) | 900-920 | 560-590 | 260-280 |
*Assumes 30% are interviewed
**Assumes ~60% of interviewed are admitted
***Assumes 45-50% yield |
Hope this sort of helps or at least provides fodder for even more speculation and guesstimation!
Again this is completely speculation. I'm not connected with adcom in any way nor do I know any exact numbers from this year or any year.
This is solely based on trends from past years regarding class size, yield, and number of apps as well as the completely non=scientific assessment of Facebook group joiners. Please do not make decisions off this guesstimation and don't complain if I'm completely wrong. Please don't PM me about these back of the envelope calculations or lack thereof. You are free to do your own calculations to occupy yourself for the next week if you're waiting on R2 results or until May/summer if you're waiting on R3 or the WL.
21 Mar 2013, 14:08
No fancy models here... 
