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605-655 Level|   Probability|                        
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why we don't need to multiply with 2! and then with 3! for arrangement within president, secretary, and treasurer?

IanStewart
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I am not strong in probability formula. However, I have an option to look at the problem from a plain arithmetic point of view. First of all the president will be chosen. If Harry hasn’t been chosen as the president, then he has the chance to be eihter secretary or the treasurer. Given that, once someone other than Harry has already been chosen as the president, now 9 members are remaining from whom first the secretary will be chosen. Similarly when the secretary has already been chosen, then the treasurer will be chosen from the remaining 8 members. Therefore, Harry's chance to be the secretary is 1/9, thus his chance of being the treasurer is 1/8. From this logic, the average of 1/9 and 1/8 is 17/72.
I would really appreciate your help.

You can use probability rules to answer this question, though there are faster ways. For Harry to be chosen Secretary, two things need to happen: he must not be chosen President, and then he must be chosen Secretary. When we need a sequence of things to happen, we multiply the probabilities of each thing. Harry will not be chosen President 9/10 of the time, and then will be chosen Secretary 1/9 of the time, as you correctly found. Multiplying, the probability he is Secretary is 9/10 * 1/9 = 1/10. Similarly, to be chosen Treasurer, he must not be President, and must not be Secretary, then must be chosen Treasurer, so the probability he is Treasurer is 9/10 * 8/9 * 1/8 = 1/10. Then to find the probability he is either Secretary or Treasurer, we do not average those two probabilities; we add them (as long as they can't both happen). So the answer is 2/10.

As I said earlier in the thread, I think there are better ways to think about the problem. Harry is just as likely as anyone else to be chosen Secretary, regardless of whether they choose Secretary first or second or last, so there must be a 1/10 chance that happens, and the same is true of the Treasurer position.
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One of the 10 members is to be chosen at random to be the president, one of the remaining 9 members is to be chosen at random to be the secretary, and one of the remaining 8 members is to be chosen at random to be the treasurer.

Hi - I got confused by this sentence because I thought this implied that the secretary and treasurer will be chosen in a trickle down order -- so 10 left, then 9 then 8 - what am i missing here :( ?
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One of the 10 members is to be chosen at random to be the president, one of the remaining 9 members is to be chosen at random to be the secretary, and one of the remaining 8 members is to be chosen at random to be the treasurer.

Hi - I got confused by this sentence because I thought this implied that the secretary and treasurer will be chosen in a trickle down order -- so 10 left, then 9 then 8 - what am i missing here :( ?

Yes, that’s how they are chosen—first 10, then 9, then 8. However, the procedure itself doesn’t affect the final calculation. There’s a detailed discussion of this question; I recommend reviewing it carefully. If something is still unclear, feel free to ask specific questions!
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Hi Bunuel, I have understood the solution and have also gone through other practice questions that you recommended.

Wanted to understand the nCr approach here:

I am stuck with that- just to clarify the fundamentals:

( 9c1 * 1c1 * 8c8 + 9c1 * 9c9 * 1c1 ) / 10c3 --- I am getting that 6! from the denominator.

Can you explain the right approach?
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SOLUTION

A certain club has 10 members, including Harry. One of the 10 members is to be chosen at random to be the president, one of the remaining 9 members is to be chosen at random to be the secretary, and one of the remaining 8 members is to be chosen at random to be the treasurer. What is the probability that Harry will be either the member chosen to be the secretary or the member chosen to be the treasurer?

(A) 1/720
(B) 1/80
(C) 1/10
(D) 1/9
(E) 1/5

This question is much easier than it appears.

Each member out of 10, including Harry, has equal chances to be selected for any of the positions (the sequence of the selection is given just to confuse us). The probability that Harry will be selected to be the secretary is 1/10 and the probability that Harry will be selected to be the treasurer is also 1/10. So, the probability that Harry will be selected to be either the secretary or the treasurer is 1/10 + 1/10 = 2/10 = 1/5.

Answer: E.

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hjharsh
Hi Bunuel, I have understood the solution and have also gone through other practice questions that you recommended.

Wanted to understand the nCr approach here:

I am stuck with that- just to clarify the fundamentals:

( 9c1 * 1c1 * 8c8 + 9c1 * 9c9 * 1c1 ) / 10c3 --- I am getting that 6! from the denominator.

Can you explain the right approach?

Denominator should be 10P3 = 720, not 10C3.

Favorable cases:

  • Harry as secretary: 9*8 = 72
  • Harry as treasurer: 9*8 = 72
  • Total favorable = 144

Probability = 144/720 = 1/5.
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This one is a great example of sequential selection with a hidden constraint that trips up many students.

Here's the key insight you need to see: For Harry to become secretary or treasurer, he must first avoid being selected as president. If he's chosen as president, game over – he can't hold the other positions.

Let's break this down step by step:

Step 1: What's the probability Harry is NOT chosen as president?

When they pick the president, there are 10 people to choose from. Harry is 1 of them. So the chance Harry avoids the presidency is:

\(\frac{9}{10}\)

Think about it: 9 out of 10 people who aren't Harry could be president instead.

Step 2: Given Harry avoided presidency, what's his chance of getting secretary OR treasurer?

Now there are 9 people remaining (including Harry), and they need to fill 2 positions: secretary and treasurer.

Here's where students often stumble – you might think it's \(\frac{1}{9}\), but that's not quite right. Notice that there are 2 favorable positions for Harry out of the 9 remaining people. So Harry's probability of being selected for one of these two roles is:

\(\frac{2}{9}\)

Step 3: Combine the probabilities

The overall probability is:

\(P(\text{Harry is secretary or treasurer}) = P(\text{not president}) \times P(\text{secretary or treasurer | not president})\)

\(= \frac{9}{10} \times \frac{2}{9}\)

\(= \frac{18}{90}\)

\(= \frac{1}{5}\)

Notice how beautifully the 9's cancel out!

Answer: (E) \(\frac{1}{5}\)

This makes intuitive sense too – Harry has a 20% chance, which feels reasonable given that 2 out of the 10 members will fill roles he wants, but he first needs to dodge that presidency selection.

Why this approach works: You're dealing with conditional probability in a sequential selection process. The key is recognizing the constraint (Harry can't be president) and then calculating his chances within the remaining pool.

If you want to understand the systematic framework for tackling all sequential probability problems like this, including the common variations and time-saving patterns, you can check out the complete solution breakdown on Neuron by e-GMAT. The full explanation covers alternative approaches and helps you recognize similar problem patterns instantly. You can also practice with detailed solutions for other official GMAT questions here to build consistent accuracy across all probability question types.

Hope this helps clarify the logic! Let me know if you have questions about any step.
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