Understanding the SetupWe have:
-
3 cups (labeled
1,
2,
3)
-
1 red ball and
1 blue ball
- Red ball can go into ANY of the
3 cups (cups
1,
2, or
3)
- Blue ball can ONLY go into cups
1 or
2 (
never cup 3)
Step 1: Find All Possible OutcomesRed ball has
3 choices × Blue ball has
2 choices =
6 total outcomes
Let's list them (Red, Blue):
1. (Cup 1, Cup 1) - Both in Cup 1
2. (Cup 1, Cup 2) - Red in 1, Blue in 2
3. (Cup 2, Cup 1) - Red in 2, Blue in 1
4. (Cup 2, Cup 2) - Both in Cup 2
5. (Cup 3, Cup 1) - Red in 3, Blue in 1
6. (Cup 3, Cup 2) - Red in 3, Blue in 2
Each outcome is equally likely with probability
1/6.
Step 2: Solve for A (Cup 1 contains at least one ball)Key insight: Instead of counting favorable cases, use the complement!
Cup 1 has NO balls when:
- Red is NOT in Cup 1 (so Red is in Cup 2 or 3)
- AND Blue is NOT in Cup 1 (so Blue is in Cup 2)
From our list, Cup 1 is EMPTY in outcomes:
- #4: (Cup 2, Cup 2)
- #6: (Cup 3, Cup 2)
P(Cup 1 empty) =
2/6 =
1/3Therefore:P(Cup 1 has at least one ball) =
1 -
1/3 =
A = 2/3Step 3: Solve for B (Red and Blue in Cups 1 and 2, in either order)We need: One ball in Cup 1 AND the other ball in Cup 2
From our list:
- #2: (Cup 1, Cup 2) - Red in 1, Blue in 2 ✓
- #3: (Cup 2, Cup 1) - Red in 2, Blue in 1 ✓
Only 2 outcomes out of
6 satisfy this condition.
P(Red and Blue in Cups 1 and 2) =
2/6 =
B = 1/3Key Takeaways:1.Always start by counting total outcomes - here it's
3 × 2 = 6 (not
3 × 3 = 9 because blue has only
2 choices!)
2. For "at least one" problems,
complement method is often easier: P(at least one) =
1 - P(none)
3.Common trap: Don't forget the restriction that blue ball CANNOT go in cup 3!
Answer: A = 2/3, B = 1/3Bismuth83
A monkey is playing a game with three empty cups, labeled 1, 2, and 3. The monkey has one red ball and one blue ball, and places them into the cups using the following rules:
- The red and blue balls are placed uniformly at random into one of the three cups.
- It is known that the monkey never puts the blue ball into cup 3.
- Each cup can hold more than one ball.
Let A be the probability that cup 1 contains at least one ball and let B be the probability that the red and blue balls end up in cups 1 and 2 (in either order).