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jabhatta2
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A physically active lifestyle has been shown to help increase longevit 17 Feb 2023, 09:04
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Hi avigutman – thank you for following up

avigutman
No, we don't need to know their age at immigration. I'll try to explain:
Would you agree that, all else being equal, a 50 year-old has a higher probability of reaching age 80 than does a 20 year-old?
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Are we comparing a : 50-year-old immigrant vs a 20-year-old immigrant. (the immigrant is coming from OTHER parts of the Bellaria)?

If so, I don’t agree to the above statement

A 50-year-old immigrant and a 20-year-old immigrant (from OTHER parts of the Bellaria) will both die at 70 years in equal probability.

avigutman

For that reason, when a population gets an influx of old people, that's going to push the average lifespan upward. The incoming population of old people won't contribute any young deaths, by definition. No infant mortality, no soldiers dying at war, etc. These old people have already avoided all of the deaths that could have occurred to them earlier in life. Florida is a classic example of this, as people move there to retire. It makes it seem as though living in Florida will help you live longer, but that's classic survivorship bias.
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I agree this is true in the real life. But i don't see the point of this. The argument is all about comparing two fundamentally different groups

Group A - not forced to live physically active lifestyles
Group B - forced to live physically active lifestyle.

If old people (from Group A) immigrate to WISTAR, they should still die at 70 years old

avigutman
jabhatta2
I thought (c) strengthened because it eliminated an alternative cause

Per the above – I have ‘eliminated’ IMMIGRANTS to WISTAR as the reason for why there is an age gap (at death)

Hence I eliminated an alternative cause (by ruling out immigrants as the cause for the age gap).
It was you, jabhatta2, who eliminated this potential alternate explanation, by using a premise from the argument. Answer choice (C) wasn't the one who eliminated it, therefore (C) is not a strengthener.
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Not sure I understand this.
Yes I took information from (C)+ inference from the premises TO DETERMINE (c) was a strengthener.
One way to strengthen is to ‘eliminate’ an alternative cause.
I ruled out an alternative cause by ruling out ‘immigrants’ to WISTAR
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A physically active lifestyle has been shown to help increase longevit 17 Feb 2023, 10:54
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jabhatta2
A 50-year-old immigrant and a 20-year-old immigrant (from OTHER parts of the Bellaria) will both die at 70 years in equal probability.
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You haven't provided any reasoning for this claim. Here's my reasoning for why this is incorrect:
A 50 year-old has already survived the 30 years between age 20 and age 50 - he need only survive 20 more years to reach age 70. On the other hand, a 20 year-old has to survive 50 more years to reach age 70 - and the probability of death between age 20 and age 50 is something that he has to "beat" in order to get to the same "starting point" as the 50 year-old. jabhatta2, please spend some time reflecting on this, because I believe it's blocking you from getting the survivorship bias point.

jabhatta2
The argument is all about comparing two fundamentally different groups

Group A - not forced to live physically active lifestyles
Group B - forced to live physically active lifestyle.

If old people (from Group A) immigrate to WISTAR, they should still die at 70 years old
Show more
I don't get it. Why? How do you know?

jabhatta2

I took information from (C)+ inference from the premises TO DETERMINE (c) was a strengthener.
One way to strengthen is to ‘eliminate’ an alternative cause.
I ruled out an alternative cause by ruling out ‘immigrants’ to WISTAR
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What information from (C) helped you rule out an alternate cause? The fact that old people moved to Wistar from elsewhere? This helped you rule out what? That immigrants might explain the age gap at death? How does the fact that immigrants exist rule out the possibility that they explain the age gap at death?
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A physically active lifestyle has been shown to help increase longevit 17 Feb 2023, 15:03
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Hi avigutman - as requested

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1FZHQCM ... share_link
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A physically active lifestyle has been shown to help increase longevit 17 Feb 2023, 15:16
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jabhatta2
Hi avigutman - as requested

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1FZHQCM ... share_link
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I don't think your video analysis addressed any of my points, unfortunately, jabhatta2.
To answer a couple of the questions you pose in your video:
1) Yes, I think of the life spans as bell curves.
2) The migrants to Wistar, by your framing, die at age 80, not 70. The information we have about Wistar is not just about the locals (born and raised in Wistar), but about all people dying in Wistar (average age at death).
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A physically active lifestyle has been shown to help increase longevit 21 Feb 2023, 12:28
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jabhatta2
The argument is all about comparing two fundamentally different groups

Group A - not forced to live physically active lifestyles
Group B - forced to live physically active lifestyle.

If old people (from Group A) immigrate to WISTAR, they should still die at 70 years old
Show more
Just to wrap this conversation up, jabhatta2:
1) the argument is not all about comparing groups A and B above. Rather, the argument is about a possible explanation for this surprising phenomenon: In the Wistar region of Bellaria, the average age at death is considerably higher than in any other part of the country.
2) Old people from other parts of the country have a much higher average age at death compared to the average age at death of the general population in those other parts of the country. This is because of survivorship bias.
3) The influx of these migrants, whose average age at death is particularly high, may explain the surprising phenomenon, thereby calling into question the explanation put forth by the argument.
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A physically active lifestyle has been shown to help increase longevit 07 Jul 2023, 11:06
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kinjiGC
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A physically active lifestyle has been shown to help increase longevity. In the Wistar region of Bellaria, the average age at death is considerably higher than in any other part of the country. Wistar is the only mountainous part of Bellaria. A mountainous terrain makes even such basic activities as walking relatively strenuous; it essentially imposes a physically active lifestyle on people. Clearly, this circumstance explains the long lives of people in Wistar.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument?

A) In Bellaria all medical expenses are paid by the government, so that personal income does not affect the quality of health care a person receives.
B) The Wistar region is one of Bellaria, s least populated regions.
C) Many people who live in the Wistar region have moved there in middle age or upon retirement.
D) The many opportunities for hiking, skiing, and other outdoor activities that Wistar's mountains offer make it a favorite destination for vacationing Bellarians.
E) Per capita spending on recreational activities is no higher in Wistar than it is in other regions of Bellaria.

Premise: Physical activity increases longevity and as Wister has higher average age at death > then rest of Bellaria, hence people do physical activity and that explains their longevity.

A) In Bellaria all medical expenses are paid by the government, so that personal income does not affect the quality of health care a person receives.
No distinction made between Bellaria and Wister -> Incorrect

B) The Wistar region is one of Bellaria is least populated regions.
This doesn't explain why there is higher than average age at death -> Incorrect

C) Many people who live in the Wistar region have moved there in middle age or upon retirement.
So most of the people are already higher than average age when they moved to Wister and that provides an alternate explanation -> Correct

D) The many opportunities for hiking, skiing, and other outdoor activities that Wistar's mountains offer make it a favorite destination for vacationing Bellarians.
Out of scope -> Incorrect

E) Per capita spending on recreational activities is no higher in Wistar than it is in other regions of Bellaria.
There is no indication as to why residents of Wister have higher than average age at death -> Incorrect
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Why is option B here wrong? Is my reasoning correct? Since average= total age of all people/total no of people,if total no of people is less i.e. your denominator decreases average age increases, it is strengthening the evidence of conclusion. Is this correct way to look at optionB?
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A physically active lifestyle has been shown to help increase longevit 02 Oct 2025, 07:27
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