According to sources who can be expected to know, Dr. Maria Esposito

Question

According to sources who can be expected to know, Dr. Maria Esposito is going to run in the mayoral election. But if Dr. Esposito runs, Jerome Krasman will certainly not run against her. Therefore Dr. Esposito will be the only candidate in the election.

The flawed reasoning in the argument above most closely parallels that in which one of the following?

(A) According to its management, Brown’s Stores will move next year. Without Brown’s being present, no new large store can be attracted to the downtown area. Therefore the downtown area will no longer be viable as a shopping district.

(B) The press release says that the rock group Rollercoaster is playing a concert on Saturday. It won’t be playing on Friday if it plays on Saturday. So Saturday will be the only day this week on which Rollercoaster will perform.

(C) Joshua says the interviewing panel was impressed by Marilyn. But if they were impressed by Marilyn, they probably thought less of Sven. Joshua is probably right, and so Sven will probably not get the job.

(D) An informant says that Rustimann was involved in the bank robbery. If Rustimann was involved, Jones was certainly not involved. Since these two are the only people who could have been involved, Rustimann is the only person the police need to arrest.

(E) The review said that this book is the best one for beginners at programming. If this book is the best, that other one can’t be as good. So this one is the book we should buy.

jpan · Answer

IMO answer is B.
Flaw in the reasoning is that author assumes no one else will stand for the election. From the premises given, the most important assumption that only the two will be standing for the election, is missing. Without that, the conclusion can't be proven. 
Among the options only B exhibits similar flaw in reasoning, where it fails to say Friday and Saturday are the only two days they can perform.

AnuK2222 · Answer

Can somebody explain why B is a stronger option over C? I picked C because it claims that Joshua is probably right which is similar to "sources who can be expected to know" in the passage. Otherwise B and C felt quite close
thanks!

Rohit1988 · Answer

@anuk222, C uses probably while B provides certainty inline with the main argument

choochoo17 · Answer

The reasoning structure in the question is: IF A runs AND B will certainly not run, then A is the only one running. However, A and B may NOT be the only runners (other candidates), hence the reasoning is flawed.

The reasoning structure in the questions are:

A) IF A (Brown's) will not run AND B (New large stores) will certainly not run, then there are NO runners. Incorrect because the reasoning structure is different from question.

B) IF A (Saturday) runs AND B (Friday) will certainly not run, then A (Saturday) is the only one running. However, A (Saturday) and B (Friday) may NOT be the only runners (other weekdays), hence the reasoning is flawed. Correct because the reasoning structure is similar to the question.

C) IF A (Marilyn) runs AND B (Sven) will probably not run, then A (Marilyn) is probably the only one running. Incorrect because the reasoning structure in question requires certainty.

D) IF A (Rustimann) runs AND B (Jones) will certainly not run, then A (Rustimann) is the only one running. However, A and B ARE the only runners. Incorrect because the reasoning structure in question allows the possibility that A and B may not be the only runners.

E) IF A (this book) runs AND B (that other one) will certainly not run, then A is the only one running. However, A is the only runner (unlike running candidates where there can be many, there can only be one best book). Incorrect because the reasoning structure in the question allows the possibility that A and B may not be the only runners.

VerbalBot · Answer

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According to sources who can be expected to know, Dr. Maria Esposito

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