@Zosimus
The GMATPrep tests have been fairly accurate for my students over the years. However, there are reasons where one can end up with a lower score on the actual GMAT test(and higher as well). I think the following reasons come in to play:
1) The additional stress of a real test environment. That is why I recommend students to take the test in one single shot and at a place away from their home or a comfortable environment. A library is a good place, I have even had students take the test in my office to add the pressure of a new location.
2) Not completing the test and leaving some questions unanswered. There is a severe penalty for not completing the test. It is easy to get sucked in to GMAT questions and students will sometimes lose track of time.
3) Losing confidence early on because they didn't do well on the first few questions. I always reiterate to my students that even if you miss the first five questions it is not the end of world. Sometimes the first question can be really hard, I believe the difficulty level of the first question is set randomly, sometimes that can throw one off. I also wouldn't like to see a nasty question right in the beginning of the test.
4) Carrying over the experience of not doing well on one section to the other. If one doesn't do well on the quant section, sometimes students will keep thinking about that during the verbal section. Again, one has to completely ignore that and focus on the task at hand. I know it is easier said than done.
I will often repeat these points to all of my students. I think it helps them gain confidence and keep any eye out for these mistakes.
Dabral