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Gagoosh
Joined: 23 Nov 2017
Last visit: 02 Oct 2019
Posts: 104
Own Kudos:
Given Kudos: 132
Location: Singapore
Concentration: Strategy, Other
Schools: NTU '20 (M) ESSEC '21 (A$)
16 Sep 2018, 23:13
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workout, PeepalTree, my exam is due in a few days. would appreciate your feedback and criticism..
The following appeared in the opinion column of a financial magazine: “On average, middle-aged consumers devote 39 percent of their retail expenditure to department store products and services, while for younger consumers the average is only 25 percent. Since the number of middle-aged people will increase dramatically within the next decade, department stores can expect retail sales to increase significantly during that period. Furthermore, to take advantage of the trend, these stores should begin to replace some of those products intended to attract the younger consumer with products intended to attract the middle-aged consumer.”
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
Department stores products and services have seen a boom globally, rivalled by only a few other sectors. The growth trend justifies why these sectors tend to put increased amount of research to enhance their revenues. The author of the article in subject claims that since on an average, middle aged consumers devote a higher percentage of the retail expenditure to department store products and services than do the younger consumers, these stores should begin to replace some of these products intended to attract the younger consumer with those intended to attract the middle-aged consumer. The argument may well be of credit, but the reasoning given by the author suffers with major flaws and poor reasoning. Based solely on the evidences provided by the author, the argument fails to convince its audience.
Primarily, the argument is based on unsubstantiated premises. The argument states the percentages and does not say anything about the underlying actual figures. This is exactly the reason why one can not compare number of middle-aged consumers to the number of younger consumers. 39% of 100 consumers is much less than 25% of 10,000 younger customers after all! While one may agree with the idea that revenues might increase dramatically with the number of middle aged people, one can not conclude that this increase would be big enough to justify the product shift.
Secondly, the argument is based on many flawed assumptions, for which the author has not provided us with any evidences. The author assumes that even if the underlying numbers are in consonance with the percentages spent, say around middle aged people form around 70% of the total population, the preferences of the target population will stay the same even after 10 years. It assumes that even after 10 years, there would not be any overlap of products and services between these 2 age brackets. The argument may be strengthened however, if the author supports his analysis with some additional data.
The argument, however, not be as baseless as it sounds. The author can fix the loopholes and substantiate his conclusion by supplementing it with actual numbers along with the percentages of the spends. Also, evidences of surveys regarding the consumer choice would also help the author to make his point.
In sum, the author’s illogical argument is based on unsupported premises and unsubstantiated assumptions that render his conclusion invalid. If he truly hopes to change the opinion of his audience, he would have to largely restructure his argument, fix the loopholes, explain his conclusions, basing them with proper evidentiary support.
The following appeared in the opinion column of a financial magazine: “On average, middle-aged consumers devote 39 percent of their retail expenditure to department store products and services, while for younger consumers the average is only 25 percent. Since the number of middle-aged people will increase dramatically within the next decade, department stores can expect retail sales to increase significantly during that period. Furthermore, to take advantage of the trend, these stores should begin to replace some of those products intended to attract the younger consumer with products intended to attract the middle-aged consumer.”
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
Department stores products and services have seen a boom globally, rivalled by only a few other sectors. The growth trend justifies why these sectors tend to put increased amount of research to enhance their revenues. The author of the article in subject claims that since on an average, middle aged consumers devote a higher percentage of the retail expenditure to department store products and services than do the younger consumers, these stores should begin to replace some of these products intended to attract the younger consumer with those intended to attract the middle-aged consumer. The argument may well be of credit, but the reasoning given by the author suffers with major flaws and poor reasoning. Based solely on the evidences provided by the author, the argument fails to convince its audience.
Primarily, the argument is based on unsubstantiated premises. The argument states the percentages and does not say anything about the underlying actual figures. This is exactly the reason why one can not compare number of middle-aged consumers to the number of younger consumers. 39% of 100 consumers is much less than 25% of 10,000 younger customers after all! While one may agree with the idea that revenues might increase dramatically with the number of middle aged people, one can not conclude that this increase would be big enough to justify the product shift.
Secondly, the argument is based on many flawed assumptions, for which the author has not provided us with any evidences. The author assumes that even if the underlying numbers are in consonance with the percentages spent, say around middle aged people form around 70% of the total population, the preferences of the target population will stay the same even after 10 years. It assumes that even after 10 years, there would not be any overlap of products and services between these 2 age brackets. The argument may be strengthened however, if the author supports his analysis with some additional data.
The argument, however, not be as baseless as it sounds. The author can fix the loopholes and substantiate his conclusion by supplementing it with actual numbers along with the percentages of the spends. Also, evidences of surveys regarding the consumer choice would also help the author to make his point.
In sum, the author’s illogical argument is based on unsupported premises and unsubstantiated assumptions that render his conclusion invalid. If he truly hopes to change the opinion of his audience, he would have to largely restructure his argument, fix the loopholes, explain his conclusions, basing them with proper evidentiary support.
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