This is one of those things that is year by year, so take the following with a grain of salt:
If you look at the "Calling all Darden Fall 2009 Applicants", there's a huge drop-off in the number of gmatclubbers who are accepted in R3. Whereas in R1, there's a fairly high number, the number drops steadily through R2 and even more in R3.
Is generally true of Darden though? Who knows. Also, maybe it's because the economy was in worse shape last year. Or, maybe the gmatclub sample is skewed towards people who obsess about admissions and so apply early. There's a bunch of factors that make last year's findings from gmatclub meaningless. Still, it's worth considering.
One thing I heard from a few current students at Darden is that there is less and less merit aid on you go. So, if money's a factor, something to consider.
Also, I think there's a video chat with the director of admissions today sometime, so maybe you might inquire.