upInTheAir
^^ the more i analyze this whole bschool application process the more I am not sure that is true. I think they only say that essays are crucial to get people who dont necessarily qualify to apply (and for consultants to have a job). most of the people who i know in top bschools dont really need to be there to begin with.
I can understand for H/S/W, especially Stanford with the small class size, but Stern is really quite a bit down the ladder. I'm sure every non-Top 5 school would love to have 99% of their class be Big 3 consulting or BB I-banking with 3.9 GPA and 760+ GMATs but there isn't that many of those candidates that care enough to get a MBA to go around. Also, like you said, the people that really "really" don't need a MBA to be successful will 95% of the times "not" be part of those schools.
My point is, in the end, the average student at a Top 10-15 school were not business world conquerors nor most likely will they ever be. If you're a solid spin doctor in your essays and on your interview, it'll probably be enough to sway at least a few adcoms into giving you a seat.