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Debatable LOGIC: Due to an easing of state sanctions against hunting,

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Debatable LOGIC: Due to an easing of state sanctions against hunting, [#permalink]

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New post 14 Mar 2016, 00:07
Quote:
Due to an easing of state sanctions against hunting, Deersdale Preserve has experienced an influx of hunters in the last several months. During this time, the silvertail fox, a popular target for hunters, has seen a marked decrease in population. Therefore, to prevent the population of silvertail fox—an important apex predator responsible for keeping the Deersdale County’s rabbit population in check—from falling even lower, the state should once again place strict sanctions against hunting.

Which of the following, if true, may suggest that stricter sanctions against hunting would not have the desired effect?

A.The population of rabbits has surged ever since the hunting sanctions in Deersdale County were lifted.
B.The silvertail fox population varies greatly throughout the year, especially during winter when prey becomes scarce.
C.The local authorities are expecting even more hunters in the coming year to arrive to the park.
D.The silvertail fox had been experiencing a population surge shortly before the state sanctions against hunting were eased.
E.The grey wolf, a large predator that competes with the silvertail fox over Deersdale Preserve’s rabbit population, has seen its numbers decrease since the arrival of the hunters.


Hi,

Although Q is a good one but due to lack of connection/relation between the time of decrease in population and the prey scarcity, I think Q leaves the OA dangling
May be you would like to review it or clear the air

ALSO why B should not be OA in normal circumstances?


Whatever logic is being given by B was valid prior to hunting too, so whatever loss has been seen caused by HUNTING will be saved and we will see that increase..

I think the Q was meant to tell us that there could be another reason for the drop in NUMBERS, but fails in connecting the decrease with this variation.
few ways it could have been a better Q by addition of following INFO somewhere
1) Due to an easing of state sanctions against hunting, Deersdale Preserve has experienced an influx of hunters in the last several months. COULD BE
Due to an easing of state sanctions against hunting, Deersdale Preserve has experienced an influx of hunters in the last several months from the onset of winters OR
Due to an easing of state sanctions, in early winters, against hunting , Deersdale Preserve has experienced an influx of hunters in the last several months.


In normal circumstances, the words 'LAST SEVERAL MONTH' can encompass any months or combination of winter and other season.. so connecting with WINTER in choice B may be lightly far-fetched.
another point..
B tells us --
B.The silvertail fox population varies greatly throughout the year, especially during winter when prey becomes scarce...
It doesn't tell us that what happens in winters, It may be actually going up. we are just aware that the population VARIES throughout the year.
It may well be possible that due to increase in number of predator, silvertail fox in this case, the prey has become scarce..

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Re: Debatable LOGIC: Due to an easing of state sanctions against hunting, [#permalink]

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New post 14 Mar 2016, 16:57
Dear chetan2u,
I'm happy to respond. :-)

My friend, this is a HARD question, written by my friend Chris Lele. According to our Magoosh statistics, only about 51.5% of GMAT users get this question correct. That's a hard question.

(B) would be true in normal circumstances. That's part of the point. It's nothing out of the ordinary cycle of seasons. Lele wrote this question so that most users would pass over all five answers on the first go, and then have to come back and look at each answer more carefully. Note that many real GMAT questions function in this same way.

We need something, anything, that would suggest that a decline in the silvertail fox is not due solely to the increased hunting. Well, winter also reduces the fox population. Is the question happening in winter, or is winter imminent? Hard to say, but certainly, winter will come at some point in the next 12 months. The point is: if we lift the hunting restriction, we most certainly will not see a continuous increase in the silvertail fox over the next, say, 20 months, because at some point in that time period, there will be at least one winter. Because the time-scale over which the increase will be studied is not specified, we have a certain amount of latitude in interpreting this aspect of the question. (B) is the only answer that allows us a plausible interpretation along these lines.

My friend, you were suggesting changes that would make this "a better Q." Notice, these changes certainly would have made the question more understandable to your logic. Insofar as these changes made the question easier, made the logic more transparent to a larger number of people, that would not necessarily be an improvement. Our statistical analysis at Magoosh shows that this is already a very high quality question: folks who excel at CR get this right at approximately twice the rate of those who struggle with CR. As a question, it has a high Item Discrimination: in terms of psychometric analysis, that's precisely what one wants from a good question. Making it clearer and more obvious and easier would not, psychometrically, make it better.

Does all this make sense?
Mike :-)
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Re: Debatable LOGIC: Due to an easing of state sanctions against hunting, [#permalink]

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New post 14 Mar 2016, 20:03
Hi Mike,
Ofcourse it is not necessary for Magoosh that I be convinced on this Q, but I would have to counter respond with all due respect..

1) Meaning of " population falling even lower'..
Can we relate this term to seasonal effects. If population has fallen down due to seasonal variations having some effect on it, then can we say that population has fallen lower. Its an effect seen every year

2) Will someone looking into the silverfox would say for 3 months that population has fallen down, and rest of the time that population has gone up and repeat the same every year.

3) The meaning given by you-
Quote:
The point is: if we lift the hunting restriction, we most certainly will not see a continuous increase in the silvertail fox over the next, say, 20 months, because at some point in that time period, there will be at least one winter.
..
the word EVEN in falling EVEN lower talks of falling down from that particular number and does not involve the scenario given by you.
If the population has increased and then falls and again increases does not come under the meaning of 'falling EVEN lower', unless it crosses the threshhold set by the time when speaker suggests this.

4) Hard Q-
Even if I contest the logic part, I have written in the thread discussion that the answer has to be this choice as no other choice comes close. a hard Q in GMAT is normally one which has two very close choices even if it has simple reasoning.

5) If the Logic in the Q meant that the number falling at some point of time and a syou say there is no time attached, do you really require any choice. The number will fall down some day in next 2 years, 5 years.. I am sure when we say POPULATION FALLING DOWN, we talk of a scenario when this fall is constant and not something which is known to be seasonal.

Regards
Chetan :)
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Re: Debatable LOGIC: Due to an easing of state sanctions against hunting, [#permalink]

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New post 22 Nov 2016, 09:12
mikemcgarry wrote:
Dear chetan2u,
I'm happy to respond. :-)

My friend, this is a HARD question, written by my friend Chris Lele. According to our Magoosh statistics, only about 51.5% of GMAT users get this question correct. That's a hard question.

(B) would be true in normal circumstances. That's part of the point. It's nothing out of the ordinary cycle of seasons. Lele wrote this question so that most users would pass over all five answers on the first go, and then have to come back and look at each answer more carefully. Note that many real GMAT questions function in this same way.

We need something, anything, that would suggest that a decline in the silvertail fox is not due solely to the increased hunting. Well, winter also reduces the fox population. Is the question happening in winter, or is winter imminent? Hard to say, but certainly, winter will come at some point in the next 12 months. The point is: if we lift the hunting restriction, we most certainly will not see a continuous increase in the silvertail fox over the next, say, 20 months, because at some point in that time period, there will be at least one winter. Because the time-scale over which the increase will be studied is not specified, we have a certain amount of latitude in interpreting this aspect of the question. (B) is the only answer that allows us a plausible interpretation along these lines.

My friend, you were suggesting changes that would make this "a better Q." Notice, these changes certainly would have made the question more understandable to your logic. Insofar as these changes made the question easier, made the logic more transparent to a larger number of people, that would not necessarily be an improvement. Our statistical analysis at Magoosh shows that this is already a very high quality question: folks who excel at CR get this right at approximately twice the rate of those who struggle with CR. As a question, it has a high Item Discrimination: in terms of psychometric analysis, that's precisely what one wants from a good question. Making it clearer and more obvious and easier would not, psychometrically, make it better.

Does all this make sense?
Mike :-)


Hi Mike, why is D wrong?

Conclusion: Hunting regulations should be made to protect foxs

D.The silvertail fox had been experiencing a population surge shortly before the state sanctions against hunting were eased.
There had been already a deccrease in the population, thus it is not due to the hunting. Weakens??

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Re: Debatable LOGIC: Due to an easing of state sanctions against hunting, [#permalink]

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New post 22 Nov 2016, 17:17
chismooo wrote:
Hi Mike, why is D wrong?

Conclusion: Hunting regulations should be made to protect foxs

D.The silvertail fox had been experiencing a population surge shortly before the state sanctions against hunting were eased.
There had been already a deccrease in the population, thus it is not due to the hunting. Weakens??

Dear chismooo,

I'm happy to respond. :-)

This is a hard question, and one of the aspects that makes it hard is the sophisticated vocabulary. Let's unpack the vocabulary of choice (D).
"The silvertail fox had been experiencing a population surge ..."
A surge is an increase, a rise in the numbers. The numbers of the silvertail fox were going up.
The silvertail fox had been experiencing a population surge shortly before the state sanctions against hunting were eased.
A sanction again some activity is a rule prohibiting it. These sanctions were eased at the beginning of the prompt, which allowed for more hunting.

Thus, this answer choice tells us that before the hunting increased, the silvertail fox population was increasing. Then, as we know from the prompt, the hunters came in, and the population decreased because of the hunting.

This choice does not tell us about any decrease, apart from the decrease due to hunting described in the prompt.

Does all this make sense?
Mike :-)
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Re: Debatable LOGIC: Due to an easing of state sanctions against hunting,   [#permalink] 22 Nov 2016, 17:17
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