Context:
Construction moves faster in good weather so mild winters in areas that usually experience harsh conditions can appear to create construction booms.

Premise:
- construction loans are often obtained more than a year in advance

Conclusion: Forecasting one mild winter or even two for such areas generally does not lead to overall increases in construction

We are looking for another premise that tells us why forecasting one mild winter does not lead to increased construction.
We are told already that construction loans need to be taken a year in advance. But then, if the forecast happens early enough, the loans could be taken in advance for the forecasted mild winter.

Then why is it not done?

A) construction workers often travel to warmer climates in the wintertime in search of work

Doesn't help. If a mild winter is forecasted and builders plan to expedite construction during that time, workers are likely to stick around. The workers move to warmer climates in search of work. If work is available and climate is better, they are likely to not move. Something like "workers are not available in winters because they visit their families in the south at that time" might have been more convincing.

B) construction materials are often in short supply during construction booms

This talks about what happens "during" construction boom. We are given that construction booms do not happen.

C) many builders in these areas are likely to apply for construction loans at the same time

What does that imply? Do they all get refused?
They could all apply in advance for mild winters.

D) it is frequently the case that forecasted weather trends do not actually occur

Correct. If forecasted trends do not actually occur then a forecasted mild winter will not lead to extra construction. The builders will not know whether forecasted mild winters will occur and will have reason to believe that it will not (because forecasted trends do not usually occur). So they will not apply for loan in advance. Then even if the winter is mild, they will not be able to expedite construction.

E) mild winters are generally followed by spring and summer weather that promotes more rapid construction

Irrelevant.

Answer (D)
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A) construction workers often travel to warmer climates in the wintertime in search of work
Probably they won't go this time because they know a good weather is about to appear and there will be a boom in construction? Hence, incorrect

B) construction materials are often in short supply during construction booms
Oh come on! They can very well keep a good stock once the prediction of a good weather is out! Hence, nope.

C) many builders in these areas are likely to apply for construction loans at the same time
Likely to? Well this time they probably won't wait because - well yeah - good weather and good time for construction!! Hence, rejected.

D) it is frequently the case that forecasted weather trends do not actually occur
Construction loans often get disbursed more than a year in advance. But there is no certainty of a good weather because forecasts are often wrong. This means people won't take the loans 1 year in advance before of the risk involved and hence, no increases in construction. BANG ON!

E) mild winters are generally followed by spring and summer weather that promotes more rapid construction
...umm. So what?

the argument states that construction loans are often obtained more than a year in advance and wants us to further complete why this wont lead to an overall increase in construction despite forecasting for milder winters. Only Option D completes the argument by stating that EVEN if you forecast the weather its NOT necessary for the forecasts to come true and hence not necessary for the overall construction to increase

To fill the blank let's find the position required by the blank: The blank should give another reason(because) to this discrepancy :does not lead to overall increases in construction

A) Often travel doesn't imply that there won't be any workers available even if work is available in this area.
B)Short supply to one>> may be its stocked by some and construction is done. So even this can't explain
C)So many builders may get loan and many may build. Opposite

D)This is the only option which explains discrepancy : if climate can't be predicted properly. May be winter prediction turns out to bring summer or any other unwanted thing>>>> constructions won't boom as expected.

E) So this adds even more to discrepancy saying that more buildings can be built.

therefore OA:D


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Can someone explain why C is incorrect? I opted for C

Refer to my explanation above even then... If you didn't understand I would be happy to explain.

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F1: Construction work moves faster in good weather
F2: If there is mild winter in an area that usually experience harsh winter then the construction work in the said area will boom.
Why? Because Construction workers will be able to complete their work in time.
But
(Conclusion)Forecasting mild weather does not lead to overall increase in construction in those areas.
Why?
Reason#1: Construction loans are often obtained more than a year in advance.
This means builders get the fixed amount of money for the buildings that they will build in next year.
So even if they will be able to finish the building in mild winter, they will not have money to start the new construction.
Therefore we can't say there will be an increase in the construction.
What can be the other reason??

Answer option must give a reason to believe that mild weather does not increase overall increase in the construction.

A) construction workers often travel to warmer climates in the wintertime in search of work
If it's true that construction workers travel to warmer areas during wintertime then workforce will be reduced in wintertime.
So this answer option basically trying to say that construction work may be reduced during winter due to reduced labor
But can we say labor is reduced to that level that it will impact the construction work? May be there are 100 people working
on a site and some of them were sitting on a bench (Not working ..interns/helpers) and these people left to the warmer areas for work.
Or it's possible that construction workers are 'travelling' to the warmer areas during weekends and they are coming back to
winter areas (where there families are) to finish their work in weekdays. So we can't say for sure that this can be a reason to believe that mild
weather does not lead to overall increase in construction work.

B) construction materials are often in short supply during construction booms.
First of all this answer option does not tell that construction is booming in winter or any other season.
It's just saying whenever it booms, the supplies goes low.
So can we say anything about construction work happened in mild winter? No. We cannot! We can't even say if the construction work was increased or decreased.

C) many builders in these areas are likely to apply for construction loans at the same time
Now, in the original sentence one reason is given that builders get loan for the construction a year before the actual start of the work.
so another reason should not be the same. Because author is trying to give you two reasons (, and because...) So this can't be the correct answer option.
This answer option says many of the builders do apply for the loan at the same time. So, by using the given fact that they get loan
a year before the actual start of the work. The builders who all applied together may start working together during mild weather.
But since they all were having fixed money.. can we say that the construction work increased during this time? No.
Basically the same reason, which is already given.

D) it is frequently the case that forecasted weather trends do not actually occur
Now, If this is true that the forecasted weather trends are not true sometimes then we can definitely say that at least sometimes the
construction work was impacted during winters. This suggests that the construction work either reduced or remained the same as that of other winters, if not increased.
Bingo!

E) mild winters are generally followed by spring and summer weather that promotes more rapid construction
Argument is about construction in mild weather conditions. Construction happening in summer or spring is out of context.

Hello All,

I have also opted wrong option B and all the choices are incorrect except D because of the below reason.

because construction loans are often obtained more than a year in advance....This reason clearly tells that not increase in construction has linked to doubt in forecasting mild winter, hence the other reason must be parallel and logical in the same direction i.e doubt the forecasting mild winter. Hence D is correct.

Thanks
Anand

Why can it be B ? If raw material decreases in the mild winter then the number of construction is also likely to decrease. In D we are questioning the accuracy of the "weather forecasting".

Can anyone please guide

What if the builders have stocked the supplies (using the advance loan) , keeping in mind that the prices of raw material will increase in mild winter due to increased competition/More construction?
So even if in mild winter the supply of raw material go low, the number of constructions will not get impacted.

My Take on this. Please feel free to correct me.
Logic: Forecasting one winter or even two will not lead to const. boom
Reason 1: construction loans are often obtained more than a year in advance-->
Reason 2: we need to find an option that makes us believe that forecasting 1/2winter won't benefit the workers.

A) construction workers often travel to warmer climates in the wintertime in search of work ---> irrelevant choice, says often travel, but if there is a prediction that can increase their money they might stay.

B) construction materials are often in short supply during construction booms--> yes, this could affect the construction, we can keep it

C) many builders in these areas are likely to apply for construction loans at the same time---> yes they might, let's say there is 2x increase in loam applications. now we can't say that the bank can't process this loan. maybe it can maybe it can't. can't say for sure.

D) it is frequently the case that forecasted weather trends do not actually occur-----> ohhhhh! wtf is this, frequently, forecasted weather is not correct. this gives us a solid reason to believe that as in real life, weather forecasting is ****.

E) mild winters are generally followed by spring and summer weather that promotes more rapid construction.
the supports that there will be booms.

B vs D, D is something that is a clear winner. because is direct and there is no escape from it. It clearly tells why forecasting won't help.

I were able to narrow down to the answer choice A and D and ended up choosing A.

Can anyone help to explain why A is not correct? My guess is that the extend to which workforce travel to other warmer areas for work can't be determined and thereby it's hard to decide the impact of this movement on the progress of the construction

GMATNinja VeritasKarishma can the experts help please?

This one is tough. I had it between C and D, and ended up choosing C. However, here's my post-attempt analysis.
Construction moves faster in good weather than in bad, so mild winters in areas that usually experience harsh conditions can appear to create construction booms as builders complete projects that would otherwise have to wait. - Economist lays down the foundation of the passage by comparing construction pace during good weather and during bad weather, faster in good weather. Now, comes the important part of the passage. Areas that usually experience harsh conditions have sometimes mild winders, thus creating construction boom i.e. most of the construction(say yearly) of that area happens during that short period of time. Otherwise projects gets on hold for the reason that area is known for harsh winters. (A likely assumption(may be true in real world) on economist part is that harsh winters causes interruption in completing projects.)

But forecasting one mild winter or even two for such areas generally does not lead to overall increases in construction during these periods, because construction loans are often obtained more than a year in advance, and because __________. - Economist takes a turn as suggested by word 'but'. S/he says that even though weather is forecasted for those areas, it does not help in increasing the construction during those periods. Why so! S/he gives reasons as suggested by word 'because' used twice. One reason is that builders get construction loans more than a year in advance. And the other reason is .....

I think the difficult part of this passage is figuring out properly how the two sentence are related. Once we do that we are good to pick up analysing choices - mind it that the choices may have convoluted language that may overthrow us.

Keywords(generic): so, usually, but, generally,
Keywords(Passage specific): appear, forecasting, does not lead
(The keywords may vary depending on one's train of thought. They can be more or less.)

So, we need to find the reason(keeping the other one in mind) that will help us to figure out the paradox(sort of) that why the lean phase continues during those periods in those areas, even when we have forecasts available. I think, by now, a couple of things are clear to us.

A) construction workers often travel to warmer climates in the wintertime in search of work - Does every worker leave those areas in search of work? This is too open a choice that it can either favour or not favour or remain neutral to our cause.

B) construction materials are often in short supply during construction booms - This is somewhat irrelevant. Note that the booms are notional - they seem to APPEAR when in reality they are not.

C) many builders in these areas are likely to apply for construction loans at the same time - This one personally i think is a candidate. If most of the builder in those areas take loans at the same time and all loans are given in more than a year in advance, then it does help explain the paradox. However, there are a couple of things to note in this choice.
a) many - what does 'many' means? It can be 5 - 6 out of 100 or 70-80 out of 100.
b) likely to apply - 'likely to apply' does not mean they get the loans.
c) same time - if many apply at the same, does it mean they get loans at the same time.
(Arghhh... why did not i had such clear thoughts during actual attempt )

D) it is frequently the case that forecasted weather trends do not actually occur - CORRECT. Frankly, at first, i thought it can't be the answer. The reason being that it is directly countering the passage. Wait.... it basically means the forecasted weather never happens to occur i.e. if the mild weather is forecasted for coming winder season, it is highly likely that mild winter would not occur(so there is no notional construction boom). Thus, the usual harsh conditions of winters would occur, leading to no overall increases in construction.

E) mild winters are generally followed by spring and summer weather that promotes more rapid construction - So what! At best, i would say it's irrelevant. If at all considered this one goes in the opposite direction. But this is the easiest of them all to eliminate.

I can't deny the fact that each of the choices does have an outside chance to be the answer as each elaborates external factors that may help explain the paradox. But the one does so by relating to the crux of the passage is the right one.

For D, it also likely that if one can simply chose but only if s/he understand the passage so well.
Hope this is helpful.

Answer D.
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Hey VeritasKarishma


Your analysis for eliminating option A doesn't sound persuading enough to me. Here's why.

A) construction workers often travel to warmer climates in the wintertime in search of work




We cannot challenge the answer options since they have to be taken as something true. Therefore, how can we say/think that the workers are likely to stick around when option A clearly says, "construction workers often travel to warmer climates in the wintertime in search of work"?

Another point- We are talking about areas that usually experience harsh conditions, and one can fairly agree that whether it be a mild winter or not so mild winter will occur during the winter season. Since this is an area that usually experiences harsh conditions we can safely say that it also experiences harsh winter conditions during which there are forecasts of mild winter. By the time the forecasts would have happened, since the area is already in a harsh winter conditions , workers would have left.

I see why option E is correct, but I just can't see a clear justification for eliminating option A. Could you help?

Workers leaving in winters is the effect of less construction work available.
Option (A) says that they leave for warmer places in search of work. The reason for leaving is given to you. Then if work is available, they may not leave.
As I explained above, a reason for leaving such as "visiting family because kids have holidays in winter" or "to farm winter crops in their hometowns" could mean that workers may not be available, whether work is available or not in winter.
But since we have been clearly given that they leave searching for work, it makes no sense for them to leave when work is available.

Option (E) on the other hand clearly states that forecasts are usually wrong. This means builders will not make their plans based on forecasts and since loans are taken in advance, they will not be able to make good use of a mild winter.
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Hi VeritasKarishma


Ahh......I see the point. Nowhere in the passage, it says that there is less work available. In fact quite the opposite is implied, ".... overall increases in construction during these periods, because construction loans are often obtained more than a year in advance...". So this choice does not resolve the paradox but instead does quite the opposite. Thank you for enlightening.

Hi,

We know that the goal is to supply a reason for why the construction boom doesn't occur.

Just a few thoughts on the answer choices:

Answer choice A says that ‘construction workers often travel to warmer climates in the wintertime in search of work’. So, how many constructions workers travel? Do 80% of them travel or only 10% of them travel? For this answer choice to work, we would have to assume that a significant number of workers travel, and only then will this choice be one of the reasons as to why does the construction boom doesn’t happen.

Answer choice C says that ‘many builders in these areas are likely to apply for construction loans at the same time’. So, what does this mean? Do all their applications get rejected? Even if the bank rejects a few, some of them would for sure get the loan. So, this choice again requires us to assume that a significant number of applications get rejected and hence, the builders do not get access to the funds.

B says that the ‘construction materials are often in short supply during construction booms.’ But this choice talks about the boom, and according to the argument we are talking about something that only looks like a boom. So, notice the wordplay. If you weren’t reading closely and didn’t notice ‘can appear to boom’, you will for sure end up getting trapped. In fact, 18% people have marked B. This choice is out of scope.

E says that ‘mild winters are generally followed by spring and summer weather that promotes more rapid construction’. So, what are we supposed to assume? Are we to assume that the builders intentionally let mild winters pass because they are waiting for the more conducive weather - spring and summer? We want a reason as to why the construction boom doesn’t happen in mild winters. Choice D gives us a very concrete reason as to why the construction boom doesn’t happen.

For choice D to work, we do not have to make any assumptions, and it fits right in.

Side note: If you have to make additional assumptions for an answer choice to work, then you're just probably looking at the incorrect answer choice.

Thank you.

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