PremisesPremise 1: A pharmaceutical company conducted a
12-week clinical trial of a new painkiller.
Premise 2: Nearly all patients completed the full dosing schedule without interruption.
Premise 3: The average reduction in pain scores over the 12 weeks was only
modest.
ConclusionThe researcher concludes that the drug provided little meaningful relief to patients. Which of the following, if true, most seriously undermines the researcher's conclusion?(A) Among patients who entered the trial with the highest initial pain scores, average reductions by the end of the study were greater than those observed in patients who began with only mild or moderate pain.
Wrong: This shows that one subgroup benefited more than another, but the overall average could still be modest. It does not seriously undermine the conclusion that the drug provided little meaningful relief overall.
(B) Patients who adhered to the prescribed dosing schedule without interruption reported substantially greater pain reductions than those who missed at least one dose during the trial.
Wrong: Since
nearly all patients completed the dosing schedule, this comparison is based on only a small minority of patients and does not challenge the researcher's conclusion about the overall effectiveness of the drug.
(C) Patients who were given a placebo rather than the drug reported similarly modest reductions in pain scores over the same 12-week period.
Wrong: This suggests the drug may be
no better than a placebo, which actually supports the researcher's conclusion rather than weakening it.
(D) Pain score reductions among patients in the trial were negligible during the first eight weeks but accelerated sharply in the final four weeks as the drug reached its full therapeutic concentration in the bloodstream.
Correct: average reduction over the study is still described as modest and it will have its full effect later, down the line.
(E)The chronic pain condition targeted by the drug is one for which all currently available treatments have historically produced only modest average reductions in standardized pain scores.
Wrong: The researcher assumes that a
modest average reduction means the drug provides
little meaningful relief. If
all effective treatments for this condition also produce only modest reductions, may or may not actually represent a clinically meaningful benefit. This is vague.