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GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios

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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink]

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New post 08 May 2017, 07:53
As I can see this post is 4 years old. Are the scenarios still accurate enough?

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New post 08 May 2017, 08:08
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TDK82 wrote:
I recently took exam 6 from EP2...

In verbal, only missed 4 questions (9,18,37,41) but got only V42...Is it possible that EP2 didn't have enough hard questions to try me for V43/44?

I feel exam 5 (from EP2) exhausted many hard questions...in exam 5 I got V41 even after missing as many as 12 questions (wrongs clustered in the middle and end)...

So probably the first exam from each pack is a better judge and more realistic database of questions...with enough hard arsenal...?


Yes, agreed. The problem is that Exam Packs 1 (Tests 3-4) and Exam Pack 2 (Tests 5-6) draw from the same pool of questions for both tests. If you are a high scorer, then it's likely that you will exhaust many of the hardest questions on the 1st test in the set, since there are only 400 questions in the pool, compared to about 1,500 total questions for the Default Exam Pack that includes tests 1 and 2.

To avoid this problem, you could reset the tests...but then you might see repeat questions.

-Brian
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Last edited by mcelroytutoring on 08 May 2017, 08:15, edited 2 times in total.

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New post 08 May 2017, 08:10
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kivalo wrote:
Image

V37: Did not answer last question (SC).


One question difference, 4 points lower total Verbal score! Yes, it's clear that there is a penalty for not finishing. However, you did get one additional question correct as well, which explains some (but not all) of the difference in your composite Verbal score.
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Last edited by mcelroytutoring on 30 Jul 2017, 15:50, edited 2 times in total.

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New post 08 May 2017, 08:14
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lavya07 wrote:
As I can see this post is 4 years old. Are the scenarios still accurate enough?


These scenarios are still accurate for the tests included in the free GMATPrep software, which has not changed much over the last 4 years. The problem is that the GMATPrep software does not use the exact same algorithm as does the real GMAT. Thus, there is no way to know for sure whether these GMATPrep results will be duplicated on the actual test.
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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink]

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New post 15 May 2017, 23:58
hello, what are some ways that helps not to miss question with BUT, or EXCEPT

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New post 16 May 2017, 02:05
Hey guys!! First of all, thanks for the amazing work you’ve been doing.

Is it possible to test these scenarios with the new exam pack released by Gmac????
Browsing in this forum (and others) I’ve seen that people have experienced scores not in line with the scenarios in this thread. And most importantly, it looks like they’ve had more problems with the second test they’ve taken; that is, lower scores with more questions answered correctly ( I know the importance of the order in the algorithm). As if the questions pool isn’t big enough to sustain two tests at high scores.

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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink]

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New post 16 May 2017, 03:06
pureleaves wrote:
hello, what are some ways that helps not to miss question with BUT, or EXCEPT


Hi pureleaves ,

The only way to do so is to read question very carefully.

Thanks
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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink]

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New post 25 May 2017, 15:19
Mator wrote:
Hey guys!! First of all, thanks for the amazing work you’ve been doing.

Is it possible to test these scenarios with the new exam pack released by Gmac????
Browsing in this forum (and others) I’ve seen that people have experienced scores not in line with the scenarios in this thread. And most importantly, it looks like they’ve had more problems with the second test they’ve taken; that is, lower scores with more questions answered correctly ( I know the importance of the order in the algorithm). As if the questions pool isn’t big enough to sustain two tests at high scores.


Yes, it is possible but not necessary since the exam packs do not carry a new scoring algorithm and simply work within the existing scoring system.
Moreover, Exam Packs do not have many questions in them (they have only about 1/5th or 1/10th of what GMAT Prep has, thus their accuracy is lower)
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GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink]

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New post 10 Jun 2017, 06:42
mcelroytutoring wrote:
TDK82 wrote:
I recently took exam 6 from EP2...

In verbal, only missed 4 questions (9,18,37,41) but got only V42...Is it possible that EP2 didn't have enough hard questions to try me for V43/44?

I feel exam 5 (from EP2) exhausted many hard questions...in exam 5 I got V41 even after missing as many as 12 questions (wrongs clustered in the middle and end)...

So probably the first exam from each pack is a better judge and more realistic database of questions...with enough hard arsenal...?


Yes, agreed. The problem is that Exam Packs 1 (Tests 3-4) and Exam Pack 2 (Tests 5-6) draw from the same pool of questions for both tests.
If you are a high scorer, then it's likely that you will exhaust many of the hardest questions on the 1st test in the set, since there are only 400 questions in the pool, compared to about 1,500 total questions for the Default Exam Pack that includes tests 1 and 2.

To avoid this problem, you could reset the tests...but then you might see repeat questions.

-Brian


Hi bb

Please refer to red text above...
I have recently finished both the test in EP1 (test 3-4) and was planning to reset it and take them again ...
I also have 2 tests from EP2 (test 5-6) which I am planning to take after I finish the "reset" tests from EP1(test 3-4)...

Now if I go by the above statement made by brain, I understand there are chances of seeing repeats question on my 2 tests in EP2 (test 5-6)
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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink]

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New post 01 Jul 2017, 08:23
This is awesome Bunnel. The kind of what if scenarios will really help when anxiety pumps.
This is awesome and trust this is still be applicable if GMAC changes their algorithm.

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New post 24 Jul 2017, 19:01
dabral wrote:
I know for sure that on Quant you do not need to answer 100% of the questions right to get Q51. I have missed problems on the real GMAT and still got a Q51. And on GMATPrep, one can miss 6 questions and still get a Q51. I don't know how it is on the Verbal section of the GMAT, but my guess would be that it would be the same.


I was just reading through this thread for the first time in years, and saw this. In case you're curious, I'm fairly sure it's impossible to get a V51 with even a single wrong answer (ignoring experimental questions), and on GMATPrep tests, with one mistake I've either seen V49 or V50 scores, and with two mistakes I've seen V47 or V48 scores.

It's best to think of the Q51 level as analogous to the V45 or V46 level, which is where the percentiles line up (or at least did, before the Quant percentiles got skewed). There's a 'top end' on the Verbal scale that doesn't exist in Quant, and you need a near-perfect performance to get into that top end. And there's another factor at work - it's also almost certainly true that the hardest Quant questions are harder than the hardest Verbal questions, which means a mistake on a hard Verbal question hurts your chances at an extremely high score a bit more than a mistake on a hard Quant question would.

And I just tried to give kudos to your post above, warning test takers not to obsess too much about the first ten questions, but the kudos system doesn't seem to be working, so I'll just express my support here. :)
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New post 24 Jul 2017, 19:07
mipek wrote:

I think that the algorithm has multiple time variables, i.e. the time spent per question, in addition to whether you get the question right or wrong, determine the difficulty level of your next question, and next question and so on.

Moreover, the score given per section takes into account not only right and wrong answers per difficulty level, but also the average time spent per question and difficulty level, and how many minutes before the clock runs out you finish the section.


This is very definitely not true. The scoring algorithm takes no notice whatsoever of the time you took to answer a question.

mcelroytutoring wrote:
The problem is that the GMATPrep software does not use the exact same algorithm as does the real GMAT.


This is also not true, unless you're talking about technicalities. GMATPrep and the real GMAT both use a 3-parameter IRT-based algorithm.
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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink]

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New post 24 Jul 2017, 20:23
Bunuel wrote:

1. What is the importance of the first 10 questions?

Experiment: We will try to disprove the myth the way OG/GMAC positions it: the first 10 questions are not critical
Methodology: we will attempt the worst case scenario and will answer the first 10 questions incorrectly (not guess but incorrectly); then we will attempt to answer the remaining 27 questions correctly (not guess)

Result: Q38 (48th percentile - ouch) with only 10 wrong answers
Analysis: obviously something is not right with the myth about the first 10 questions. They appear to be very important on the Quant.


I've been meaning to post this for a year or two, but to me this experiment proves the exact opposite - it proves that the first ten questions are not especially important, or at least that they're not more important than later questions. That might seem counterintuitive, so I'll explain in more detail, first in a loose way, then in a mathematically precise way.

There's one crucial observation about this experiment: answering the first ten questions incorrectly is just an unspeakably bad performance. If you put a cat in front of the computer, and let it paw away at the keyboard, the cat would normally get 2 right answers in the first 10 questions, just by random guessing. So before looking at the Q38 and drawing a conclusion just from that score, it's important to define expectations. What should we think that test taker's Quant level is? At that point in the test, what would you guess, and how certain would you be? That's the question the algorithm is asking, and with that performance, the algorithm is going to be almost 100% certain that the test taker is below the 200 level, because essentially no test taker ever performs that badly.

To roughly guess what score the test taker ought to get in this experiment, it's important to know how the algorithm works. The algorithm assumes that if a question is at your level, you have a 60% chance to get it right. So if the difficulty levels of your first ten questions were 500, 400, and then eight 300-level questions, you need to get your next twelve 300-level questions right just to prove you're a 300-level test taker. And then you still have a lot of work to do to prove you're above that level. It's impressive that you can even reach a Q38.

The reverse happens when you answer the first 27 questions correctly. By that point you've almost certainly answered fifteen Q50-level questions correctly already, with no wrong answers on anything easier than that, so even with ten wrong answers on Q50-level questions, you still have a 60% hit rate at that level. So while the performance at the end is unusually bad, it's completely understandable that you'd still get a Q50.

Using the actual math behind the algorithm, if the test does proceed as above (500, 400, the rest 300) for the first ten questions, then a true 700-level test taker should have nearly a 99% chance of answering those 300-level questions correctly*. The chance a random 700-level test taker would answer the first ten questions incorrectly is roughly 1 in 6.6 million trillion (6.6 quintillion, or 6.6 * 10^18). It will simply never happen, so of course the algorithm will never give a Q49-Q50 score to a test taker who does that badly early in the test. Even the 300-level test taker only very rarely does that badly - they will only do that about 3 times in 10,000.

Put another way, if you knew before a test that a test taker was either a 300-level, 500-level, or 700-level test taker (with equal probability), and he or she answered the first ten questions on the test incorrectly, at that point in the test the probability would be 1 in 40 trillion that the test taker was 700-level, and 1 in 500,000 that the test taker was even just 500-level. At that point, if 300, 500 or 700 are our only options, you should be willing to bet a small house to win just $1 that the test taker is the 300-level test taker. The odds are astronomically against the test taker being even average. That you can recover from that position to get even a Q38 should indicate that the first ten questions are not weighted any more than the later ones.

It's the fact that there are so many wrong answers on easy questions that makes it so likely the test taker is a very low level test taker -- high level test takers almost never answer easy questions incorrectly. And that's the takeaway test takers should take from this: be careful not to get easy questions wrong, because that will hurt you a lot. It doesn't matter where they are in the test, beginning, middle or end. And if you get a really hard question early in the test, and get it wrong, you shouldn't worry about that at all - that's what you're supposed to do unless you're an 800-level test taker.

* (technical details for people who know about parameter values: here I'm using a=1 and c=0.2, along with b values of 0, -1, -2, for 500, 400 and 300 level, and ability values of -2, 0 and 2 for 300, 500 and 700 level)
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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink]

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New post 29 Jul 2017, 12:16
Bunuel wrote:

GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios

We will try to run different scenarios with GMAT Prep Software to find out whether various myth about scoring algorithm are legit.

Reports from the Real GMAT:

Added a few points to my verbal score: http://gmatclub.com/forum/600-to-740-al ... 47029.html


1. What is the importance of the first 10 questions?

Experiment: We will try to disprove the myth the way OG/GMAC positions it: the first 10 questions are not critical
Methodology: we will attempt the worst case scenario and will answer the first 10 questions incorrectly (not guess but incorrectly); then we will attempt to answer the remaining 27 questions correctly (not guess)

Result: Q38 (48th percentile - ouch) with only 10 wrong answers
Analysis: obviously something is not right with the myth about the first 10 questions. They appear to be very important on the Quant. If you miss the first 10 (probably not a very realistic scenario for most) you have no way of climbing out of the hole - almost all questions that were offered to me were generally easy/medium difficulty. Let's try a different scenario next to check this myth (we'll miss the last 10 questions). Also interesting to note, when simulated in the previous GMAT Prep version, this scenario resulted in Q41 (so there have been changes in the scoring algorithms of the GMAT Prep).
Total Score: every question in the verbal section was answered as "E" and it resulted in the final score of V8, 1st percentile. Total score: 380 - 10th percentile
Questions: 20PS and 17 DS. Also, see what question topics were encountered in this scenario:




2. What is the importance of the last 10 questions?

Experiment: We will try to analyze the importance of the last 10 questions and if it equals the important of the first 10
Methodology: we will attempt the worst case scenario and will answer the first 27 Q questions correctly and then will answer the remaining 10 questions incorrectly (not guess but incorrectly).

Result: Q50, 92nd percentile - Nicely done though not great. I think it is possible to get Q51 with 10 incorrect ones.
Analysis: The questions were much harder this time with some new topics/types appearing on the test such as coordinate geometry DS. Conclusion: the last 10 don't count as much as the first 10. This myth is True (as long as you can get the first 27 right). Please note that I have not guessed the last 10 but rather answered them incorrectly (which means I still had to solve those questions too). If you are guessing, you will most likely get a higher score.
Total Score: every question in the verbal section was answered as "E" (again) and it resulted in the final score of V8, 1st percentile. Total score: 470 (90 points higher than when we missed the first 10 questions)
Questions: 20PS and 17 DS. Also, see what question topics were encountered in this scenario:



3. What is the importance of the middle 10 questions?

Experiment: We will try to analyze the importance of the middle 10 questions and see how it compares to the results of the previous 2 experiments
Methodology: we will attempt the worst case scenario and will answer the first 14 Q questions correctly; then I will answer incorrectly the following 10 questions, and will answer the remaining 13 questions correctly.

Result: Q49, 85th percentile - not as good of a result as in the case of missing the last 10 questions but it was much less effort (fewer hard questions than in the second case)
Analysis: The questions were not much easier than in the second scenario above even though I have made 10 consecutive mistakes. So, it may be a slightly better value in terms of effort/score but not by far
Total Score: every question in the verbal section was answered as "D" this time and it resulted in the final score of V6, 1st percentile. (Interestingly enough, it was a slightly worse result than "E"). Total score: 450



4. What is the penalty if I miss every third question?

Experiment: I will try to test a scenario in which a test takers answers every third question incorrectly (e.g. 3, 6, 9, etc. Thus giving themselves an extra 2 mins on quant). This scenario will simulate someone who takes 3 mins instead of 2 per question and then guesses every third question. Please note that this is the worst case scenario (we do not get any guesses right)
Methodology: Every 3rd questions answered incorrectly. So, 13 incorrect and 24 correct answers.
Results: Q49, 85th percentile
Analysis: Slightly lower score than in the case of missing the last 10 questions but it was much less effort in getting here(fewer hard questions than in the second or third scenarios I have tested). So far this is the best value in terms of effort/final score
Total Score: This time every question in the verbal section was answered as "C" this time and it resulted in the final score of V8, 1st percentile. Total score: 460, 23rd percentile.




5. Best Guessing Strategy: Part I - What if we guess a bunch of questions in the middle?

Experiment: I will attempt 3 different scenarios that will examine guessing strategies to figure out where the time should be invested.
Methodology: First 10 questions answered correctly, then GUESSED the next 17 questions (answered C to all of them and got 4 out of 17 correct) and finally answered the remaining 10 questions correctly.

Result: Q46, 73rd percentile.
Analysis: This is a pretty similar to the scenario above where we tried to figure out the importance of the middle 10 questions; missing 3 more (13 wrong vs 10 wrong) resulted in a lower score by 3 points (46 vs. 49).
Total Score: Every question in the verbal section was answered as "B" this time and it resulted in the final score of V6, 0 percentile. Total score: 420, 16th percentile.
Questions: 21PS and 16 DS.



6. Best Guessing Strategy: Part II - guess every third question

Experiment: I will try to test a scenario in which a test takers GUESSES every other question (e.g. 2, 4, 6, etc). I was answering C to all even numbered question and guessed correctly 3 out of 18

Result: Q40, 55th percentile. (22 correct answers and 15 incorrect answers, I guessed 3 questions correctly.)
Analysis: Not sure what I was expecting guessing every other question. I guess I got the 55th percentile (half the ultimate score but I also only invested half the effort and gottend double the time to answer my other questions). So far, I don' think this is the best strategy in terms of guessing since my goal would be to get the most return for the least amount of effort. However, I do think this score is too low to be seriously considered by anyone.
Total Score: Every question in the verbal section was answered as "A" this time and it resulted in the final score of V6, 0 percentile. Total score: 380, 10th percentile.



7. Best Guessing Strategy Part III - Variable Guessing

Experiment: first 10 questions answered correctly, GUESSED the next 9 questions (answered C to all of them, guessed 2 out of 9), then answered the next 9 questions correctly and finally GUESSED the remaining 9 questions (answered C to all of them, guessed 2 out of 9). So, 23 correct, 14 incorrect.

Result: Q49, 85th percentile. (23 correct answers and 14 incorrect answers, I guessed 3 questions correctly.)
Analysis: I was amazed to see Q49 as my final score. So far I think this is the best guessing strategy. It has resulted into the highest score (49) with 14 incorrect answers (compare that to scenario #5 above where I guessed the 17 middle questions and gotten 4 of them correct. I made 13 mistakes mistakes on that test but the final score was only 46. In this scenario I still only solved half the questions (guessed the other half). However, that's pretty darn good for solving only half the questions.
Total Score: Every question in the verbal section was answered as "E" and it resulted in the final score of V9, 2 percentile. Total score: 470, 26th percentile.



8. PS vs DS: what is the importance of DS questions?


Experiment: first 10 questions answered correctly. After that, I answered incorrectly to 12 DS questions only. So, 25 correct and 12 incorrect answers (all DS).

Result: Q50, 92th percentile.
Analysis:
Total Score: Every question in the verbal section was answered as "E" and it resulted in the final score of V8, 1 percentile. Total score: 470, 26th percentile.



9. PS vs DS: what is the importance of PS questions?


Experiment: first 10 questions answered correctly. After that, I answered incorrectly to 12 PS questions only. So, 25 correct and 12 incorrect answers (all PS).

Result: Q49, 85th percentile.
Analysis:
Total Score: Every question in the verbal section was answered as "E" and it resulted in the final score of V11, 3rd percentile. Total score: 490, 31st percentile.



9 and 10. Importance of answering ALL the questions in time.


Experiment: two scenarios:
A. Answered first 30 questions correctly and the remainder 7 questions incorrectly. Result Q50, 92nd percentile.
B. Answered first 30 questions correctly and didn't answer the remainder 7 questions at all (ran out of time). Result Q45, 71st percentile.
Analysis: As we can see it's extremely important to finish the test and manage to answer ALL the questions in time.

Do you have any questions or ideas what you would like to try?
I will be running a few more scenarios - feel free to suggest what other scenarios would be interesting to test. Thank you!


Important Clarification: we have a strong reason to believe that even though GMAT Prep is the closest algorithm to the GMAT, it is most likely not identical. Some of these scenarios may result into a different outcome when attempted on the real test. We so far have no reports to confirm or dismiss these results based on the test day experience.

-
[Reveal] Spoiler:
Attachment:
myth.gif



Hi Bunuel,
One small doubt. On last question, if we select the answer and not press the submit button then will it have penalty?

I am really scared of the penalty part.

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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink]

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New post 29 Jul 2017, 13:32
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Hi Yashkumar,

If you have clicked on one of the radio buttons and the time runs out, the software will choose that as the answer submitted. It will consider that you have indeed answered the last question.

I do this myself at the end of the test. I will click on any of the answer choices and start working on the question. Once I have my answer, then I will change the choice and press submit. This way if you run out of time, at least the question will be considered answered(even if you are wrong) and there will be no penalty for not completing the section.

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GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink]

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New post 30 Jul 2017, 11:01
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Anyone who claims to know the exact specifics of the GMAT algorithm (and corresponding score conversions) vs. the GMAT Prep algorithm (and corresponding score conversions) is either lying, or in serious breach of a GMAC confidentiality agreement.

These GMATPrep software simulations are extremely helpful in getting to know the test in a general sense, but the fact of the matter is that we are comparing apples to oranges: the real GMAT (23 experimental questions) operates much differently than GMAT Prep (0 experimental questions). For example, you could never get the last 10 questions wrong on the Quant section of the real GMAT and hope to score a Q50.

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Last edited by mcelroytutoring on 30 Jul 2017, 15:47, edited 8 times in total.

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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink]

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New post 30 Jul 2017, 11:02
dabral wrote:
Hi Yashkumar,

If you have clicked on one of the radio buttons and the time runs out, the software will choose that as the answer submitted. It will consider that you have indeed answered the last question.

I do this myself at the end of the test. I will click on any of the answer choices and start working on the question. Once I have my answer, then I will change the choice and press submit. This way if you run out of time, at least the question will be considered answered(even if you are wrong) and there will be no penalty for not completing the section.

Cheers,
Dabral


Hi dabral,

Here is @BB's post stating that this rule is not true anymore. candidate has to submit the choice for final question.
https://gmatclub.com/forum/gmatclub-tests-245692.html#p1896457

I am wondering if this could be confirmed from some official source. Tried to search for it but no NEW official confirmation found.
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GMAT 1: 770 Q47 V48
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GRE 1: 337 Q168 V169
WE: Education (Education)
GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink]

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New post 30 Jul 2017, 12:14
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HKD1710 wrote:
dabral wrote:
Hi Yashkumar,

If you have clicked on one of the radio buttons and the time runs out, the software will choose that as the answer submitted. It will consider that you have indeed answered the last question.

I do this myself at the end of the test. I will click on any of the answer choices and start working on the question. Once I have my answer, then I will change the choice and press submit. This way if you run out of time, at least the question will be considered answered(even if you are wrong) and there will be no penalty for not completing the section.

Cheers,
Dabral


Hi dabral,

Here is @BB's post stating that this rule is not true anymore. candidate has to submit the choice for final question.
https://gmatclub.com/forum/gmatclub-tests-245692.html#p1896457

I am wondering if this could be confirmed from some official source. Tried to search for it but no NEW official confirmation found.


The GMAC has provided conflicting and ambiguous answers to this question in the past. The lesson here: to play it safe, always confirm your final answer before time expires.
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Last edited by mcelroytutoring on 30 Jul 2017, 15:45, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink]

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New post 30 Jul 2017, 12:36
kivalo wrote:
Image

V37: Did not answer last question (SC).

Wow!
1 question left unanswered and the score dropped by 3 marks.

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy S6
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+1 kudos if you find it useful :)

Kudos [?]: 23 [0], given: 53

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Age: 37
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GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios [#permalink]

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New post 30 Jul 2017, 12:41
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acacia wrote:
kivalo wrote:
Image

V37: Did not answer last question (SC).

Wow!
1 question left unanswered and the score dropped by 3 marks.

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy S6


It appears from the results of kivalo 's simulations--notice that the Sentence Correction score was higher the 2nd time--that he/she got the last question right the 2nd time (as opposed to guessing but answering it incorrectly), which explains part of the Verbal score increase, but not all.
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Last edited by mcelroytutoring on 30 Jul 2017, 15:51, edited 3 times in total.

Kudos [?]: 479 [0], given: 53

GMAT Prep Software Analysis and What If Scenarios   [#permalink] 30 Jul 2017, 12:41

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