sm332
I think the upward trend is going to continue ... yes grade inflation is certainly a factor here ... but to a large extent it balances out since I am yet to hear of a single US UG university which doesnt have significant grade inflation. Before anyone jumps me .. I too did my UG in the US and saw it first hand.
I think it varies widely. The average grade in my major at a top state school was 2.5. In a class of 40, there would typically be one, maybe two 4.0s. Engineering and physics courses were even worse. My friend scored seven standard deviations above the mean for his final grade in one of his intro engineering courses. Grade? 3.3.
Edit: I should add that he went to HBS about five years after graduating. He had a 3.6 in engineering, which is more like a 3.9 proforma GPA. Not all 3.6s are created equal, so the average is pretty meaningless I think. Given that a lot of strong students in grade deflated majors "only" hit 3.3-3.5, I wonder what that says about the GPAs of those in "easier" majors -- you are probably looking at the 3.8 range as an average. If you are a poli sci major, irrespective of where you went to school, I doubt a 3.6 is going to help you out that much. That being said, I think it's probably easier to earn a 3.6 as a poli sci major at a private school that has a mean GPA of 3.3-3.4 per class than a state school that has a 2.5 average in the same subject. Of course the preference is still for the private school, but nobody said life is fair.