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If Shero wins the election, McGuinness will be appointed hea

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If Shero wins the election, McGuinness will be appointed hea  [#permalink]

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If Shero wins the election, McGuinness will be appointed head of the planning commission. But Stauning is more qualified to head it since he is an architect who has been on the planning commission for 15 years. Unless the polls are grossly inaccurate, Shero will win.

Which one of the following can be properly inferred from the information above?

(A) If the polls are grossly inaccurate, someone more qualified than McGuinness will be appointed head of the planning commission.

(B) McGuinness will be appointed head of the planning commission only if the polls are a good indication of how the election will turn out.

(C) Either Shero will win the election or Stauning will be appointed head of the planning commission.

(D) McGuinness is not an architect and has not been on the planning commission for 15 years or more.

(E) If the polls are a good indication of how the election will turn out, someone less qualified than Stauning will be appointed head of the planning commission.

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(This question also appears in LSAT PrepTest 36, Section 1 #14, with only the names changed.)

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Originally posted by JusTLucK04 on 21 May 2014, 22:17.
Last edited by GMATNinja on 24 Sep 2018, 06:57, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: If Shero wins the election, McGuinness will be appointed hea  [#permalink]

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New post 22 May 2014, 00:32
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If Shero wins the election, McGuinness will be appointed head of the planning commission. But Stauning is more qualified to head it since he is an architect who has been on the planning commission for 15 years. Unless the polls are grossly inaccurate, Shero will win.

Which one of the following can be properly inferred from the information above?

(A) If the polls are grossly inaccurate, someone more qualified than McGuinness will be appointed head of the planning commission. if the polls are grossly inaccurate, we don't know what will happen. we just know that if the polls are grossly accurate, Shero will win

(B) McGuinness will be appointed head of the planning commission only if the polls are a good indication of how the election will turn out. in this option "only if " makes problem. because we know that if Shero wins,McGuinness will be appointed head of the planning commission.. but we don't know whether McGuinness will be appointed that position if the other person win the election

(C) Either Shero will win the election or Stauning will be appointed head of the planning commission. we just know that Stauning is more qualifies than McGuinness. we don't have any information about under what condition Stauning will be appointed head of the planning commission

(D) McGuinness is not an architect and has not been on the planning commission for 15 years or more. we don't have any info about the background of McGuinness

(E) If the polls are a good indication of how the election will turn out, someone less qualified than Stauning will be appointed head of the planning commission.
we know that if polls are a good indication of how the election will turn out-->Shero will win-->McGuinness will be appointed head of the planning commission and we know that McGuinness is less qualified than Stauning
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Re: If Shero wins the election, McGuinness will be appointed hea  [#permalink]

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New post 22 May 2014, 00:44
E seems best : If the polls are a good indication of how the election will turn out, someone less qualified than Stauning will be appointed head of the planning commission.
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Re: If Shero wins the election, McGuinness will be appointed hea  [#permalink]

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New post 22 May 2014, 00:52
Between B and E:
(B) McGuinness will be appointed head of the planning commission only if the polls are a good indication of how the election will turn out.
there is surety that if A happens B will happen, but argument do not say that B happens only if A happens. B can happen because of any other event as well and argument do not fortified occurrence.

(E) If the polls are a good indication of how the election will turn out, someone less qualified than Stauning will be appointed head of the planning commission.
If A happens, B (Mcguinness) will happen, and as per the statement McGuinness is less qualified.

Thus E is the best option.
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Re: If Shero wins the election, McGuinness will be appointed hea  [#permalink]

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New post 22 May 2014, 11:03
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JusTLucK04 wrote:
If Shero wins the election, McGuinness will be appointed head of the planning commission. But Stauning is more qualified to head it since he is an architect who has been on the planning commission for 15 years. Unless the polls are grossly inaccurate, Shero will win.
Which one of the following can be properly inferred from the information
above?
(A) If the polls are grossly inaccurate, someone more qualified than McGuinness will be appointed head of the planning commission.
(B) McGuinness will be appointed head of the planning commission only if the polls are a good indication of how the election will turn out.
(C) Either Shero will win the election or Stauning will be appointed head of the planning commission.
(D) McGuinness is not an architect and has not been on the planning commission for 15 years or more.
(E) If the polls are a good indication of how the election will turn out, someone less qualified than Stauning will be appointed head of the planning commission.

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This is like LSAT questions. If you know LSAT logic games, then you can do it in half a min.

1. If Shero Wins -> McGuinness (MG) appointed (if logic)
2. If Shere does not win -> Polls are inaccurate (unless logic)
3. Stauning(ST) is more qualified than MG


(A) If the polls are grossly inaccurate, someone more qualified than McGuinness will be appointed head of the planning commission.
Straight Out: If A then B cannot conclude if B then A. Since we don't have inaccurate pole result on If side of premises. (Affirming Conclusion Fallacy)

(B) McGuinness will be appointed head of the planning commission only if the polls are a good indication of how the election will turn out.
Flag the 'only if' . We don't know if MG could be appointed if anyone else wins.

(C) Either Shero will win the election or Stauning will be appointed head of the planning commission.
If shero does not win, then we cannot infer MG is not appointed (Denying the premise fallacy)

(D) McGuinness is not an architect and has not been on the planning commission for 15 years or more.
We have been told about qualification of MG, we only know he is less qualified than ST. MG could be an architect with 14 years of exp.

(E) If the polls are a good indication of how the election will turn out, someone less qualified than Stauning will be appointed head of the planning commission.
Correct. Contra positive of condition 2. If polls are accurate, shero will win. From condition 1. If Shero wins, MG will be appointed. from 3, MG is less qualified that ST.
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Re: If Shero wins the election, McGuinness will be appointed hea  [#permalink]

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New post 10 Apr 2017, 06:22
JusTLucK04 wrote:
If Shero wins the election, McGuinness will be appointed head of the planning commission. But Stauning is more qualified to head it since he is an architect who has been on the planning commission for 15 years. Unless the polls are grossly inaccurate, Shero will win.

Which one of the following can be properly inferred from the information above?

(A) If the polls are grossly inaccurate, someone more qualified than McGuinness will be appointed head of the planning commission.
(B) McGuinness will be appointed head of the planning commission only if the polls are a good indication of how the election will turn out.
(C) Either Shero will win the election or Stauning will be appointed head of the planning commission.
(D) McGuinness is not an architect and has not been on the planning commission for 15 years or more.
(E) If the polls are a good indication of how the election will turn out, someone less qualified than Stauning will be appointed head of the planning commission.


This question modify from LSAT. AnthonyRitz & VeritasPrepKarishma

If Slater wins the election, McGuinness will be appointed head of the planning commission. But Yerxes is more qualified to head it since she is an architect who has been on the planning commission for fifteen years. Unless the polls are grossly inaccurate, Slater will win.

Which one of the following can be properly inferred from the information above?

A. If the polls are grossly inaccurate, someone more qualified than McGuinness will be appointed head of the planning commission.
B. McGuinness will be appointed head of the planning commission only if the polls are a good indication of how the election will turn out.
C. Either Slater will win the election or Yerxes will be appointed head of the planning commission.
D. McGuinness is not an architect and had not been on the planning commission for fifteen years or more.
E. If the polls are a good indication of how the election will turn out, someone less qualified than Yerxes will be appointed head of the planning commission.

GMATNinja & GMATNinjaTwo, What is the logic to resolve this question? I get stuck here between B & E.
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Re: If Shero wins the election, McGuinness will be appointed hea  [#permalink]

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This is a variation on the "logic reversal" sort of trap -- and it's particularly common on the LSAT.

Suppose that this is true:

  • Fact #1: If X occurs, then Y will occur.

That doesn't necessarily mean that this will be true:

  • If X does NOT occur, then Y will NOT occur.

Based on Fact #1, we know what will happen if X does occur -- but we have no information about what will happen if X does NOT occur.

Here, have a silly example:

  • Fact: If Mike eats a puffer fish while surfing, he will get sick.
  • "Reversed" fact: If Mike does NOT eat a puffer fish while surfing, he will NOT get sick. --> this may or may not be true; perhaps Mike will get sick from something else

Now, this Veritas question isn't phrased in quite the same way, but the logical trap in (B) is similar:

Quote:
If Shero wins the election, McGuinness will be appointed head of the planning commission... Unless the polls are grossly inaccurate, Shero will win.

And here's (B) again:

Quote:
(B) McGuinness will be appointed head of the planning commission only if the polls are a good indication of how the election will turn out.


Yes, it's true that "if the polls are a good indication of how the election will turn out", McGuinness will be appointed head of the planning commission. But the key here is the "only if." Based on the passage, we don't know what would happen if the polls are NOT accurate. Presumably, Shero wouldn't win. But who would be appointed the head of the planning commission? We have no idea. It's possible that McGuinness (mmm... Guinness) would still be appointed -- and that's why B is wrong.

I hope this helps!
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Re: If Shero wins the election, McGuinness will be appointed hea  [#permalink]

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New post 27 May 2017, 21:40
Hi Experts,
I am having a tough time implementing necessary vs sufficient conditions to actual OG Qs:
My basics:
sufficient will lead to necessary but necessary may not always result in sufficient condition to occur.
negating necessary will result in sufficient condition not have occurred
Also usual structure is as below:
If (sufficient condition), then (necessary condition)
Unless (necessary condition) sufficient condition follows.

Based on this let me present argument understanding and my inferences:
First line:
Sufficient (S wins the election) -> Necessary (MG will be appointed as head)
My inference:
(Negating necessary) MG will not be appointed as head -> (negating sufficient) will result in loss of election for S

Unless ... can be paraphrased as S will win only if polls are inaccurate.
My inference:
If Shero will win -> polls are grossly inaccurate.

Let me know of my inferences are correct?
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Re: If Shero wins the election, McGuinness will be appointed hea  [#permalink]

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New post 27 May 2017, 22:21
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adkikani wrote:
Hi Experts,
I am having a tough time implementing necessary vs sufficient conditions to actual OG Qs:
My basics:
sufficient will lead to necessary but necessary may not always result in sufficient condition to occur.
negating necessary will result in sufficient condition not have occurred
Also usual structure is as below:
If (sufficient condition), then (necessary condition)
Unless (necessary condition) sufficient condition follows.

Based on this let me present argument understanding and my inferences:
First line:
Sufficient (S wins the election) -> Necessary (MG will be appointed as head)
My inference:
(Negating necessary) MG will not be appointed as head -> (negating sufficient) will result in loss of election for S

Unless ... can be paraphrased as S will win only if polls are inaccurate.
My inference:
If Shero will win -> polls are grossly inaccurate.

Let me know of my inferences are correct?


Hi adkikani ,

This question is purely based on propositional logic.

1. If P, then Q implies ~Q --> ~P
2. P only if Q implies If P, then Q.
3. P unless Q implies ~Q --> P


Now, look at the question statement wise

If Shero wins the election, McGuinness will be appointed head of the planning commission. {If P(wins), then Q(McGuinness head)} => ~Q (McGuinness Not head) --> ~P(Loss). -- (1)

But Stauning is more qualified to head it since he is an architect who has been on the planning commission for 15 years. {If X(Architect and on PC for 15 years), then Y(More Qualified)} => ~Y(Not More Qualified) --> ~X (Not of (architect and on PC for 15 years)) -- (2)

Unless the polls are grossly inaccurate, Shero will win. { P(Win), Unless M(Polls inaccurate) } => ~M (Polls accurate) --> P(Win) --(3)

Now, looking at these let's move on to the options:

(A) If the polls are grossly inaccurate, someone more qualified than McGuinness will be appointed head of the planning commission.

It is saying If M (polls inaccurate), ~Q(McGuinness not head).

We know what would happen if polls are inaccurate but we don't know what would happen if polls are accurate. Look at statements (1),(2) and (3) above for the reason. Hence, incorrect.

(B) McGuinness will be appointed head of the planning commission only if the polls are a good indication of how the election will turn out.

It is saying Q(head) only if ~M(Polls accurate). We know that this can be deduced to If Q(head), then ~M(Polls are accurate).

We know that if Polls are accurate, then he will be the head but not vice versa. Hence, incorrect.

(C) Either Shero will win the election or Stauning will be appointed head of the planning commission.

No such relation can be deduced out of the statements we have.

(D) McGuinness is not an architect and has not been on the planning commission for 15 years or more.

Again, It may happen that he is an architect but not on planning commision or the other way round.

(E) If the polls are a good indication of how the election will turn out, someone less qualified than Stauning will be appointed head of the planning commission.

CORRECT.

It is saying If ~M (Polls accurate) --> P (win) and if P(Win) --> Q(head).

We also know that Q(head) is less qualified. Hence, we can deduce this relation. Hence, an inference.

Let me know in case of any doubt.
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Re: If Shero wins the election, McGuinness will be appointed hea  [#permalink]

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New post 28 May 2017, 01:46
[quote But Stauning is more qualified to head it since he is an architect who has been on the planning commission for 15 years. {If X(Architect and on PC for 15 years), then Y(More Qualified)} => ~Y(Not More Qualified) --> ~X (Not of (architect and on PC for 15 years)) -- (2)

Unless the polls are grossly inaccurate, Shero will win. { P(Win), Unless M(Polls inaccurate) } => ~M (Polls accurate) --> P(Win) --(3)

.[/quote]

Hi Abhimahna,

Are propositional and conditional logic same? Since I am using powerscore I want to make sure you and me are on same page.
Furthermore, symbol ~ means negation, correct ? if A ->B is valid (where A is sufficient and B is necessary condition)
then only negated B -> negated A is valid inference.

Can you explain why did you change statement starting with But S is more ... to conditional logic?

My interpretation of unless is different, let me know if I am incorrect:

Unless (necessary statement), sufficient statement follows. which translates in our case to if polls are inaccurate (negated necessary condition) - > S will not win
we negate and change order of necessary and sufficient conditions to make valid inference.

Let me know my gaps in understanding. 8-)
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Re: If Shero wins the election, McGuinness will be appointed hea  [#permalink]

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New post 28 May 2017, 09:04
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adkikani wrote:
Hi Abhimahna,

Are propositional and conditional logic same? Since I am using powerscore I want to make sure you and me are on same page.
Furthermore, symbol ~ means negation, correct ? if A ->B is valid (where A is sufficient and B is necessary condition)
then only negated B -> negated A is valid inference.

Can you explain why did you change statement starting with But S is more ... to conditional logic?

My interpretation of unless is different, let me know if I am incorrect:

Unless (necessary statement), sufficient statement follows. which translates in our case to if polls are inaccurate (negated necessary condition) - > S will not win
we negate and change order of necessary and sufficient conditions to make valid inference.

Let me know my gaps in understanding. 8-)


Here are the answers :

A proposition of the form “if p then q” or “p implies q”, represented “p → q” is called a conditional proposition. I used the generic term that is used for other cases also.

Yes, symbol ~ means negation.

I found that statement of the propositional logic form, so I did that. You never know when I need that in my Options. This is how I decode my question before attacking the options.

I am not sure of your Unless interpretation. According to me, Q, unless P means ~P ->Q.

I hope that makes sense.
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Re: If Shero wins the election, McGuinness will be appointed hea  [#permalink]

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New post 05 Jun 2017, 11:01
And if anybody wants even more on necessary vs. sufficient conditions, here's a nice thread on the topic: https://gmatclub.com/forum/a-sufficient ... 50740.html.

It's a common issue, so we'll also work on a Topic of the Week on this.

And nice work, abhimahna!
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Re: If Shero wins the election, McGuinness will be appointed hea  [#permalink]

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New post 05 Jun 2017, 16:58
GMATNinja wrote:
And if anybody wants even more on necessary vs. sufficient conditions, here's a nice thread on the topic: https://gmatclub.com/forum/a-sufficient ... 50740.html.

It's a common issue, so we'll also work on a Topic of the Week on this.

And nice work, abhimahna!


Hi Gmatninja,

Is my interpretation of unless correct?
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Re: If Shero wins the election, McGuinness will be appointed hea  [#permalink]

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New post 22 Jun 2017, 17:07
adkikani wrote:
Hi Gmatninja,

Is my interpretation of unless correct?

I assume that you're referring to your earlier comments:
Quote:
Unless (necessary statement), sufficient statement follows. which translates in our case to if polls are inaccurate (negated necessary condition) - > S will not win
we negate and change order of necessary and sufficient conditions to make valid inference.

I'd be careful here because even if the polls are inaccurate, that does not necessarily mean that S will not win. If the polls are accurate, S will definitely win. If the polls are grossly inaccurate, we don't know if S will win. Even if the polls are grossly inaccurate, S could still win.

In other words, that the polls are not grossly inaccurate is a necessary condition.

I hope this helps!
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Re: If Shero wins the election, McGuinness will be appointed hea  [#permalink]

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New post 23 Jun 2017, 23:01
1
GMATNinja wrote:
adkikani wrote:
Hi Gmatninja,

Is my interpretation of unless correct?

I assume that you're referring to your earlier comments:
Quote:
Unless (necessary statement), sufficient statement follows. which translates in our case to if polls are inaccurate (negated necessary condition) - > S will not win
we negate and change order of necessary and sufficient conditions to make valid inference.

I'd be careful here because even if the polls are inaccurate, that does not necessarily mean that S will not win. If the polls are accurate, S will definitely win. If the polls are grossly inaccurate, we don't know if S will win. Even if the polls are grossly inaccurate, S could still win.

In other words, that the polls are not grossly inaccurate is a necessary condition.

I hope this helps!


Hi Gmatninja,
You almost brought meaning aspect of SC in your explanation. Thanks for your explanation !!
WR,
Arpit
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Re: If Shero wins the election, McGuinness will be appointed hea  [#permalink]

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New post 11 May 2018, 03:22
OFFICIAL SOLUTION
Correct answer is (E).

This question provides an excellent illustration of the “must be true” inference standard. While the facts do show that Shero, if elected, will appoint a less-qualified planning commissioner, McGuinness, there is nothing explicit that says that Stauning would even be considered under any other regime. You may think that Shero is the only person who would appoint McGuinness, but there is nothing explicit that says that anyone else would even be considered. The only thing we know here is that a Shero win means that McGuinness, a lesser qualified planning commissioner than Stauning, will be appointed. So while choices like A (if Shero loses, a better commissioner will be appointed) and B (Shero is McGuinness’s only hope to get the job) may seem probable, they are not necessarily true.

On a question like this, you can eliminate incorrect answer choices by proposing hypotheticals that are consistent with the facts but undermine the answer choice. To eliminate A, B, and C here the hypothetical “for some reason, anyone who wins will select McGuinness” undercuts all of those answer choices. Only E is necessarily true.
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Re: If Shero wins the election, McGuinness will be appointed hea  [#permalink]

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New post 01 Sep 2018, 09:34
GMATNinja: Why is "D" wrong?

The reasoning given for Stauning to be more qualified than McGuinness is that Stauning is an architect, who has been on the planning commission for 15 years.
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Re: If Shero wins the election, McGuinness will be appointed hea  [#permalink]

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New post 24 Sep 2018, 06:56
HarshitJuneja wrote:
GMATNinja: Why is "D" wrong?

The reasoning given for Stauning to be more qualified than McGuinness is that Stauning is an architect, who has been on the planning commission for 15 years.

Remember, the question asks: Which one of the following can be properly inferred from the information above?

Here's the information provided:

Quote:
If Shero wins the election, McGuinness will be appointed head of the planning commission. But Stauning is more qualified to head it since he is an architect who has been on the planning commission for 15 years. Unless the polls are grossly inaccurate, Shero will win.

And here's choice (D) again:

Quote:
(D) McGuinness is not an architect and has not been on the planning commission for 15 years or more.

We can only choose (D) if we're able to infer that:

  • McGuinness is not an architect, AND
  • McGuinness has not been on the planning commission for 15 years or more.

The problem here is that we have absolutely no information about McGuinness. We definitely don't have the information to infer either, let alone both, of these specific statements.

  • What if McGuinness is an architect, but has never been on the planning commission?
  • What if McGuinness is not an architect, but has been on the planning commission for 20 years?
  • What if McGuinness is an architect, but has been on the planning commission for 13 years?

None of these scenarios would contradict the author's statement about Stauning's qualifications. But without more explicit information from the author about McGuinness, we cannot infer that McGuiness is not an architect and has not been on the planning commission for 15 years or more. That's why we eliminate (D).

I hope this helps!
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Re: If Shero wins the election, McGuinness will be appointed hea &nbs [#permalink] 24 Sep 2018, 06:56
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