In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade agency's records were reviewed in 1994 in light of information then newly available about neighboring Goro. The review revealed that in every year since 1963, the agency's projection of what Goro's gross national product (GNP) would be five years later was a serious underestimate. The review also revealed that in every year since 1963, the agency estimated Goro's GNP for the previous year—a Goro state secret—very accurately. Of the following claims, which is most strongly supported by the statements given ? (A) Goro's GNP fluctuated greatly between 1963 and 1994. (B) Prior to 1995, Goro had not released data intended to mislead the agency in making its five-year projections. (C) The amount by which the agency underestimated the GNP it projected for Goro tended to increase over time. (D) Even before the new information came to light, the agency had reason to think that at least some of the five-year projections it had made were inaccurate. (E) The agency's five year projections of Goro's GNP had no impact on economic planning in Marut. Source - OG 2017 Question No - 661 Goro’s GNP Step 1: Identify the Question The phrase most strongly supported by the statements given in the question stem shows that this is an Inference problem. (It might seem like a strengthen question. Note that the wording of the question stem asks which answer choice is supported by the information from the argument. A strengthen question would ask the reverse: which answer choice supports the argument given above?) Step 2: Deconstruct the Argument 1963-1994: M underestimates G’s GNP 5yrs later 1963-1994: M right about G’s GNP in prev. year (state secret) Each year, Marut attempts to estimate Goro’s GNP from the previous year, and also attempts to predict Goro’s GNP in five years. Even though the GNP from the previous year is a state secret, Marut estimates it correctly. On the other hand, Marut always underestimates what Goro’s GNP will be in five years. Marut didn’t learn about these trends until 1994, when the actual data emerged. Step 3: Pause and State the Goal On Inference questions, the goal is to find an answer that can be proven true using only the facts stated in the argument. Step 4: Work from Wrong to Right (A) The argument provides no information about Goro’s actual GNP. Since the argument only describes the relationship between Marut’s predictions and Goro’s GNP, rather than providing actual data for either, no conclusions about trends in the GNP itself can be supported. (B) There’s no way to know for sure, just based on the argument, what data Goro released. It’s possible that misleading information caused Marut’s poor predictions. It’s also possible that a lack of information had the same result. (C) Imagine a simple scenario in which Goro’s GNP was exactly $100 every year. Every year, Marut estimated that the GNP in 5 years would be $50, and that the GNP from the previous year had been $100. In this scenario, every statement in the argument would be correct, and the amount by which Marut underestimated Goro’s GNP would be consistent, rather than increasing. Because this answer choice isn’t necessarily true in all situations, it isn’t the correct answer. (D) CORRECT. The agency made at least two estimates for every year’s GNP. One estimate was made five years previous; the other was made in the following year. (For instance, two estimates were made for the GNP in 1990: one in 1985, and another in 1991). Since the following year’s estimate was consistently accurate, while the five-years-previous estimate was consistently inaccurate, the two estimates must have been different. In order to change the following-year estimate, the agency must have believed that the original prediction was inaccurate. (E) The argument makes no claims about the effects of the estimates, only about whether they were accurate.

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In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade agency's records were revie

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In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade agency's records were reviewed in 1994 in light of information then newly available about neighboring Goro. The review revealed that in every year since 1963, the agency's projection of what Goro's gross national product (GNP) would be five years later was a serious underestimate. The review also revealed that in every year since 1963, the agency estimated Goro's GNP for the previous year—a Goro state secret—very accurately.

Of the following claims, which is most strongly supported by the statements given ?

(A) Goro's GNP fluctuated greatly between 1963 and 1994.
If GNP fluctuated greatly it would not be possible to guess the previous year's GNP

(B) Prior to 1995, Goro had not released data intended to mislead the agency in making its five-year projections.
It had actually released data in 1994, which is prior to 1995. Thank you GMAC easy elimination

(C) The amount by which the agency underestimated the GNP it projected for Goro tended to increase over time.
Harder to Eliminate, but, we can't really say from the passage that it actually increased over time, all we know from the passage is that the estimation was seriously lower than the actual but the trend is harder to capture

(D) Even before the new information came to light, the agency had reason to think that at least some of the five-year projections it had made were inaccurate.
Yes, this could be true, because they were able to guess the previous year's GNP accurately, they would be able to actually look at 5 year estimates and go - "Oh wait, the 5 year estimates in some of them could actually be wrong"

(E) The agency's five year projections of Goro's GNP had no impact on economic planning in Marut.
Thank you GMAC, No mention about economic planning in the passage.

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