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In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade agency's records were revie

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In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade agency's records were reviewed in 1994 in light of information then newly available about neighboring Goro. The review revealed that in every year since 1963, the agency's projection of what Goro's gross national product (GNP) would be five years later was a serious underestimate. The review also revealed that in every year since 1963, the agency estimated Goro's GNP for the previous year—a Goro state secret—very accurately.

Of the following claims, which is most strongly supported by the statements given ?


(A) Goro's GNP fluctuated greatly between 1963 and 1994.

(B) Prior to 1995, Goro had not released data intended to mislead the agency in making its five-year projections.

(C) The amount by which the agency underestimated the GNP it projected for Goro tended to increase over time.

(D) Even before the new information came to light, the agency had reason to think that at least some of the five-year projections it had made were inaccurate.

(E) The agency's five year projections of Goro's GNP had no impact on economic planning in Marut.


Source - OG 2017
Question No - 661

Goro’s GNP

Step 1: Identify the Question

The phrase most strongly supported by the statements given in the question stem shows that this is an Inference problem. (It might seem like a strengthen question. Note that the wording of the question stem asks which answer choice is supported by the information from the argument. A strengthen question would ask the reverse: which answer choice supports the argument given above?)

Step 2: Deconstruct the Argument

1963-1994: M underestimates G’s GNP 5yrs later

1963-1994: M right about G’s GNP in prev. year (state secret)

Each year, Marut attempts to estimate Goro’s GNP from the previous year, and also attempts to predict Goro’s GNP in five years. Even though the GNP from the previous year is a state secret, Marut estimates it correctly. On the other hand, Marut always underestimates what Goro’s GNP will be in five years. Marut didn’t learn about these trends until 1994, when the actual data emerged.

Step 3: Pause and State the Goal

On Inference questions, the goal is to find an answer that can be proven true using only the facts stated in the argument.

Step 4: Work from Wrong to Right

(A) The argument provides no information about Goro’s actual GNP. Since the argument only describes the relationship between Marut’s predictions and Goro’s GNP, rather than providing actual data for either, no conclusions about trends in the GNP itself can be supported.

(B) There’s no way to know for sure, just based on the argument, what data Goro released. It’s possible that misleading information caused Marut’s poor predictions. It’s also possible that a lack of information had the same result.

(C) Imagine a simple scenario in which Goro’s GNP was exactly $100 every year. Every year, Marut estimated that the GNP in 5 years would be $50, and that the GNP from the previous year had been $100. In this scenario, every statement in the argument would be correct, and the amount by which Marut underestimated Goro’s GNP would be consistent, rather than increasing. Because this answer choice isn’t necessarily true in all situations, it isn’t the correct answer.

(D) CORRECT. The agency made at least two estimates for every year’s GNP. One estimate was made five years previous; the other was made in the following year. (For instance, two estimates were made for the GNP in 1990: one in 1985, and another in 1991). Since the following year’s estimate was consistently accurate, while the five-years-previous estimate was consistently inaccurate, the two estimates must have been different. In order to change the following-year estimate, the agency must have believed that the original prediction was inaccurate.

(E) The argument makes no claims about the effects of the estimates, only about whether they were accurate.

Originally posted by PrakharGMAT on 20 Jun 2016, 00:33.
Last edited by Bunuel on 04 Oct 2018, 01:41, edited 5 times in total.
Edited the question.
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Re: In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade agency's records were revie  [#permalink]

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New post 20 Jun 2016, 07:35
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PrakharGMAT wrote:
In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade agency's records were reviewed in 1994 in light of informtion then newly available about neighbouring Goro. The review revealed that in every year since 1963, the agency's projection of what Goro's gross national product (GNP) would be five years later was a serious underestimate. The review also revealed that in every year since 1963, the agency estimated Goro's GNP for the previous year -a Goro state secret- very accurately.

Of the following claims, which is most strongly supported by the statements given ?

A) Goro's GNP fluctuated greatly between 1963 and 1994.
B) Prior to 1995, Goro had not released data intended to mislead the agency in making its five-year projections.
C) The amount by which the agency underestimated the GNP it projected for Goro tended to increase over time.
D) Even before the new information came to light, the agency had reason to think that at least some of the five-year projections it had made were inaccurate.
E) The agency's five year projections of Goro's GNP had no impact on economic planning in Marut.

Source- OG 2017
Question no- 661


As you have been able to eliminate all other choices except D, lets see how D can be the answer..

ARGUMENT -


The information is available ONLY in 1994 about previous 30 years 1963 to 1993.
The agency estimates the GNP of any year twice. ONCE - 5 years prior to that year and SECOND time - 1 year after that year.
so lets take year 1970.

In 1965, it estimated the GNP to be say 10, while it was actually 15 that year. then again in 1971, it estimated the GNP of the prevoius year that is 1970 to be 14, closer to the actuals.

Now there is no new information available with the agency but it has reviewed its estimates and it would review the data ONLY if it feels it has gone wrong earlier..
THIS is the exact info given by choice D..

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Re: In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade agency's records were revie  [#permalink]

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New post 07 Apr 2017, 12:12
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let us review what we know.

1. every year since 1963, the agency's projected what the GNP would be 5 years later. i.e. projections were made for the years 1968, 1969, 1970, ... etc.
2. this projection was a serious underestimate.

3. Every year since 1963, they estimated the GNP of the previous year. So, estimates were made for 1962, 1963, 1964, ..., 1968, 1969, 1970,... etc.
4. this estimate is very accurate.

What does this imply? That in 1969, when they made an estimate for 1968's GNP they knew that the projection made in 1963 about 1968's GNP was a serious underestimate.

Which option states this? Option D.

Let us look at other answer options -

Option A - Incorrect.
We have no idea how Goro's GNP fluctuated between 1963 and 1994 because we have no data about the actual GNP values.

Option B - Incorrect.
"Prior to 1995, Goro had not released data intended to mislead the agency in making its five-year projections." -
Implies that Goro released data to mislead the agency after 1995. We cannot infer this.

Moreover, even if Goro did release data to mislead the agency, the argument and its points still stand.

Option C - Incorrect.
No such thing can be inferred from the paragraph. GNP could have been same over the years and thus amount of underestimation could have been the same.

Option E - Incorrect.
We cannot infer anything about its impact on economic planning.
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New post 20 Jun 2016, 00:45
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Hi Experts / chetan2u,

I was able to choose the correct answer D because I did not find any other option correct. As its a must be true question then we can eliminate option which talk about extra information.

A) We can't infer that GNP fluctuated GREATLY. All we know that the projections were not accurate. So eliminate
b) We don't know anything about data which Goro provided. ELIMINATE
C) The amount INCREASE OVER TIME--- We don't know---Eliminate
E) Economic planning -- OUT of Box-- Eliminate

In the end only D remains. So I opted for it.
But I don;t know anything, whats's going on in the argument.

The rough idea that I have is there is a agency which is making projections for Goro. Lets say present year is 2015
and the projection for Goro for 2020 is 10 Million but the agency underestimated it to 6 Million.
As mentioned in the argument- "The review also revealed that in every year since 1963, the agency estimated Goro's GNP for the previous year -a Goro state secret- very accurately."

So, lets say that the real projection for 2019 is 5 Million but this time Agency projected correctly.
That's all I can comprehend from the argument.

How can we infer D..?
Please assist.
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New post 20 Jun 2016, 01:00
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PrakharGMAT wrote:
In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade agency's records were reviewed in 1994 in light of informtion then newly available about neighbouring Goro. The review revealed that in every year since 1963, the agency's projection of what Goro's gross national product (GNP) would be five years later was a serious underestimate. The review also revealed that in every year since 1963, the agency estimated Goro's GNP for the previous year -a Goro state secret- very accurately.

Of the following claims, which is most strongly supported by the statements given ?

A) Goro's GNP fluctuated greatly between 1963 and 1994.
B) Prior to 1995, Goro had not released data intended to mislead the agency in making its five-year projections.
C) The amount by which the agency underestimated the GNP it projected for Goro tended to increase over time.
D) Even before the new information came to light, the agency had reason to think that at least some of the five-year projections it had made were inaccurate.
E) The agency's five year projections of Goro's GNP had no impact on economic planning in Marut.

Source- OG 2017
Question no- 661


Will go for D
Reason: The projection for 5 years was REPEATEDLY underestimated + Projection for last year was REPEATEDLY accurate. It means that even when estimators were having accurate data for one year, they repeatedly forecast wrong data for 5 years. Therefor agency was not thinking at all.
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New post 23 Jun 2016, 09:43
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To explain why D is correct:

Let's say for example, that in 1963, the agency predicted 1968 GNP to be X amount.
Let's fast forward to 1969, when the agency was able to tell what the 1968 GNP actually was, say Y amount.

So at this point, the agency could make a simple comparison of X vs Y. The agency could then tell their prediction of the 1968 GNP in 1963 was way under. In other words, they had reason to believe their prediction of the 1968 GNP was inaccurate.

Other answer choices are wrong for obvious reasons.
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Re: In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade agency's records were revie  [#permalink]

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New post 09 Oct 2016, 04:59
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Lets see what is happening here :

Since 1963 F.T.A has been making 1) 5 year predictions inaccurately but 2) making calculations for previous year accurately.

So, if in 1963 it made predictions for next 5 years as follows : 64-5 mil , 65-6 mil , 66- 6 mil , 67 - 5 mil , 68 - 5 mil . . We know that these predictions are inaccurate/underestimated.

Now, 2 years later in 1965, F.T.A does the calculation for GNP of 1964 and finds out the actual value is 8 million. Now the agency should have found out its mistake in predicting the GNP in 1964 itself because the prediction it made in 1963 about 1964 did not co-incide with the actual value of GNP.

So, Even before the new information came to light, the agency had reason to think that at least some of the five-year projections it had made were inaccurate.
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Re: In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade agency's records were revie  [#permalink]

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New post 13 Apr 2017, 20:32
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PrakharGMAT wrote:
In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade agency's records were reviewed in 1994 in light of information then newly available about neighboring Goro. The review revealed that in every year since 1963, the agency's projection of what Goro's gross national product (GNP) would be five years later was a serious underestimate. The review also revealed that in every year since 1963, the agency estimated Goro's GNP for the previous year -a Goro state secret- very accurately.

Of the following claims, which is most strongly supported by the statements given ?

A) Goro's GNP fluctuated greatly between 1963 and 1994.
B) Prior to 1995, Goro had not released data intended to mislead the agency in making its five-year projections.
C) The amount by which the agency underestimated the GNP it projected for Goro tended to increase over time.
D) Even before the new information came to light, the agency had reason to think that at least some of the five-year projections it had made were inaccurate.
E) The agency's five year projections of Goro's GNP had no impact on economic planning in Marut.

Source- OG 2017
Question No- 661


Goro’s GNP
 
Step 1: Identify the Question

The phrase most strongly supported by the statements given in the question stem shows that this is an Inference problem. (It might seem like a strengthen question. Note that the wording of the question stem asks which answer choice is supported by the information from the argument. A strengthen question would ask the reverse: which answer choice supports the argument given above?)

Step 2: Deconstruct the Argument

1963-1994: M underestimates G’s GNP 5yrs later
1963-1994: M right about G’s GNP in prev. year (state secret)

Each year, Marut attempts to estimate Goro’s GNP from the previous year, and also attempts to predict Goro’s GNP in five years. Even though the GNP from the previous year is a state secret, Marut estimates it correctly. On the other hand, Marut always underestimates what Goro’s GNP will be in five years. Marut didn’t learn about these trends until 1994, when the actual data emerged.

Step 3: Pause and State the Goal

On Inference questions, the goal is to find an answer that can be proven true using ONLY the facts stated in the argument.

Step 4: Work from Wrong to Right

(A) The argument provides no information about Goro’s actual GNP. Since the argument only describes the relationship between Marut’s predictions and Goro’s GNP, rather than providing actual data for either, no conclusions about trends in the GNP itself can be supported.

(B) There’s no way to know for sure, just based on the argument, what data Goro released. It’s possible that misleading information caused Marut’s poor predictions. It’s also possible that a lack of information had the same result.

(C) Imagine a simple scenario in which Goro’s GNP was exactly $100 every year. Every year, Marut estimated that the GNP in 5 years would be $50, and that the GNP from the previous year had been $100. In this scenario, every statement in the argument would be correct, and the amount by which Marut underestimated Goro’s GNP would be consistent, rather than increasing. Because this answer choice isn’t necessarily true in all situations, it isn’t the correct answer.

(D) CORRECT. The agency made at least two estimates for every year’s GNP. One estimate was made five years previous; the other was made in the following year. (For instance, two estimates were made for the GNP in 1990: one in 1985, and another in 1991). Since the following year’s estimate was consistently accurate, while the five-years-previous estimate was consistently inaccurate, the two estimates must have been different. In order to change the following-year estimate, the agency must have believed that the original prediction was inaccurate.

(E) The argument makes no claims about the effects of the estimates, only about whether they were accurate.
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Re: In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade agency's records were revie  [#permalink]

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New post 19 Apr 2017, 01:23
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In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade agency's records were reviewed in 1994 in light of information then newly available about neighboring Goro. The review revealed that in every year since 1963, the agency's projection of what Goro's gross national product (GNP) would be five years later was a serious underestimate. The review also revealed that in every year since 1963, the agency estimated Goro's GNP for the previous year -a Goro state secret- very accurately.

Of the following claims, which is most strongly supported by the statements given ?

A) Goro's GNP fluctuated greatly between 1963 and 1994.
B) Prior to 1995, Goro had not released data intended to mislead the agency in making its five-year projections.
C) The amount by which the agency underestimated the GNP it projected for Goro tended to increase over time.
D) Even before the new information came to light, the agency had reason to think that at least some of the five-year projections it had made were inaccurate.
E) The agency's five year projections of Goro's GNP had no impact on economic planning in Marut.

My 2 cents.
The answer has to be true based on the given stem. With this thinking, we can cross all but D.
For D, I could not understand the reasoning but I think I get it now.
So, since 1963, the agency estimated what GNP would be in 1968, inaccurately.
Since 1963, the agency estimated what GNP would be in the previous year, correctly.

This means that in 1969, the agency had two numbers to compare and probably realized oops, they were wrong at times.
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Re: In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade agency's records were revie  [#permalink]

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New post 08 Jan 2018, 22:43
why C is wrong?
C.) The amount by which the agency underestimated the GNP it projected for Goro tended to increase over time.

(Understood/accepted B is correct) but isnt cumulative amount of GNP been underestimated each year has to increase over time. The choice isnt clear, C is obviously wrong if what the test maker meant by "The amount" in C.) is just for each year.

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Re: In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade agency's records were revie  [#permalink]

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New post 08 Jan 2018, 23:45
rinrada wrote:
why C is wrong?
C.) The amount by which the agency underestimated the GNP it projected for Goro tended to increase over time.

(Understood/accepted B is correct) but isnt cumulative amount of GNP been underestimated each year has to increase over time. The choice isnt clear, C is obviously wrong if what the test maker meant by "The amount" in C.) is just for each year.

Thanks


there is no information in the passage from which we can tell whether "the amount...increases or decreases"
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Re: In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade agency's records were revie  [#permalink]

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New post 09 Jan 2018, 04:14
chesstitans wrote:
rinrada wrote:
why C is wrong?
C.) The amount by which the agency underestimated the GNP it projected for Goro tended to increase over time.

(Understood/accepted B is correct) but isnt cumulative amount of GNP been underestimated each year has to increase over time. The choice isnt clear, C is obviously wrong if what the test maker meant by "The amount" in C.) is just for each year.

Thanks


there is no information in the passage from which we can tell whether "the amount...increases or decreases"


Thanks & Happy new year Chesstitans... what I meant was for an example
the underestimated amount of yr 1 (Real GNP minus incorrectly estimated number) = 5 mn
yr2 (again understimated) = 4 mn
yr 3 = 7 mn
..... y10 = 5mn

so all combined 10 yrs (wrongly estimated amounts) should increase overtime...??

Thanks
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Re: In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade agency's records were revie  [#permalink]

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New post 09 Jan 2018, 10:09
rinrada wrote:
chesstitans wrote:
rinrada wrote:
why C is wrong?
C.) The amount by which the agency underestimated the GNP it projected for Goro tended to increase over time.

(Understood/accepted B is correct) but isnt cumulative amount of GNP been underestimated each year has to increase over time. The choice isnt clear, C is obviously wrong if what the test maker meant by "The amount" in C.) is just for each year.

Thanks


there is no information in the passage from which we can tell whether "the amount...increases or decreases"


Thanks & Happy new year Chesstitans... what I meant was for an example
the underestimated amount of yr 1 (Real GNP minus incorrectly estimated number) = 5 mn
yr2 (again understimated) = 4 mn
yr 3 = 7 mn
..... y10 = 5mn

so all combined 10 yrs (wrongly estimated amounts) should increase overtime...??

Thanks

Yes, the TOTAL sum of the underestimates would obviously increase, but that is not what choice (C) says. In fact, your example disproves choice (C). Choice (C) would only be accurate if the DIFFERENCE between the estimates and the actual numbers increased each year, for example:

    Year 1: underestimated by 2 million
    Year 2: underestimated by 2.5 million
    Year 3: underestimated by 3 million
    etc.

As your example shows, the amount by which the agency underestimated the GNP may have increased or decreased or remained the same year to year, for example:

    Year 1: underestimated by 2 million
    Year 2: underestimated by 2 million (amount by which they underestimated remained the same)
    Year 3: underestimated by 1 million (amount by which they underestimated DECREASED)
    Year 4: underestimated by 3 million (amount by which they underestimated INCREASED)
    etc.

All we know is that the agency seriously underestimated what the GNP's would be five years later. We have no idea whether the SIZE of their error decreased, increased, or remained the same year to year, so choice (C) cannot be determined.
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Re: In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade agency's records were revie  [#permalink]

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New post 04 Oct 2018, 01:31
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PrakharGMAT wrote:
In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade agency's records were reviewed in 1994 in light of information then newly available about neighboring Goro. The review revealed that in every year since 1963, the agency's projection of what Goro's gross national product (GNP) would be five years later was a serious underestimate. The review also revealed that in every year since 1963, the agency estimated Goro's GNP for the previous year—a Goro state secret—very accurately.

Of the following claims, which is most strongly supported by the statements given ?

(A) Goro's GNP fluctuated greatly between 1963 and 1994.
(B) Prior to 1995, Goro had not released data intended to mislead the agency in making its five-year projections.
(C) The amount by which the agency underestimated the GNP it projected for Goro tended to increase over time.
(D) Even before the new information came to light, the agency had reason to think that at least some of the five-year projections it had made were inaccurate.
(E) The agency's five year projections of Goro's GNP had no impact on economic planning in Marut.

Source - OG 2017
Question No - 661

Goro’s GNP

Step 1: Identify the Question

The phrase most strongly supported by the statements given in the question stem shows that this is an Inference problem. (It might seem like a strengthen question. Note that the wording of the question stem asks which answer choice is supported by the information from the argument. A strengthen question would ask the reverse: which answer choice supports the argument given above?)

Step 2: Deconstruct the Argument

1963-1994: M underestimates G’s GNP 5yrs later

1963-1994: M right about G’s GNP in prev. year (state secret)

Each year, Marut attempts to estimate Goro’s GNP from the previous year, and also attempts to predict Goro’s GNP in five years. Even though the GNP from the previous year is a state secret, Marut estimates it correctly. On the other hand, Marut always underestimates what Goro’s GNP will be in five years. Marut didn’t learn about these trends until 1994, when the actual data emerged.

Step 3: Pause and State the Goal

On Inference questions, the goal is to find an answer that can be proven true using only the facts stated in the argument.

Step 4: Work from Wrong to Right

(A) The argument provides no information about Goro’s actual GNP. Since the argument only describes the relationship between Marut’s predictions and Goro’s GNP, rather than providing actual data for either, no conclusions about trends in the GNP itself can be supported.

(B) There’s no way to know for sure, just based on the argument, what data Goro released. It’s possible that misleading information caused Marut’s poor predictions. It’s also possible that a lack of information had the same result.

(C) Imagine a simple scenario in which Goro’s GNP was exactly $100 every year. Every year, Marut estimated that the GNP in 5 years would be $50, and that the GNP from the previous year had been $100. In this scenario, every statement in the argument would be correct, and the amount by which Marut underestimated Goro’s GNP would be consistent, rather than increasing. Because this answer choice isn’t necessarily true in all situations, it isn’t the correct answer.

(D) CORRECT. The agency made at least two estimates for every year’s GNP. One estimate was made five years previous; the other was made in the following year. (For instance, two estimates were made for the GNP in 1990: one in 1985, and another in 1991). Since the following year’s estimate was consistently accurate, while the five-years-previous estimate was consistently inaccurate, the two estimates must have been different. In order to change the following-year estimate, the agency must have believed that the original prediction was inaccurate.

(E) The argument makes no claims about the effects of the estimates, only about whether they were accurate.


Premises:

In 1994, some new information came to light about Goro. So the Marut agency reviewing its records.
It revealed that since 1963, every year agency's forecast of Goro's 5 yr later GNP was an underestimate. So in 1963, agency underestimated 1968 GNP.
It also revealed that since 1963, every year agency's estimate of Goro's previous year GNP was accurate. So in 1969, agency accurately estimated 1968 GNP.

(A) Goro's GNP fluctuated greatly between 1963 and 1994.
Not necessary. GNP could have been similar though estimate could have varied greatly depending on various factors taken into account.

(B) Prior to 1995, Goro had not released data intended to mislead the agency in making its five-year projections.
Whether Goro released data to mislead Marut or not, we don't know. Marut agency could itself have made mistakes.

(C) The amount by which the agency underestimated the GNP it projected for Goro tended to increase over time.
Again, not necessary. We usually expect GNP to increase over time and might expect the underestimation to accumulate but note that the data given in the argument supports nothing of the sorts. Perhaps the agency underestimated 1968 GNP by 20% but underestimated 1969 GNP by 16% and so on... perhaps GNP decreased in some years. The numbers can change in any way and the estimates can change in any way too as long as 5 year projection are less than actuals.

(D) Even before the new information came to light, the agency had reason to think that at least some of the five-year projections it had made were inaccurate.
This is true. In 1969, the agency did have reason to think that five year old projections were inaccurate. That is why when it reviewed and made fresh estimate of 1968 numbers in 1969, the GNP number was different. If it had no reason to believe that the five-year projections were inaccurate, the estimate number for 1968 GNP in 1969 would have been same as the projection number in 1963.
This is the answer.

(E) The agency's five year projections of Goro's GNP had no impact on economic planning in Marut.
How it impacted Marut, or whether it did, is irrelevant.

Answer (D)
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Re: In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade agency's records were revie &nbs [#permalink] 04 Oct 2018, 01:31
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In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade agency's records were revie

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