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In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade agency's records were revie

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In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade agency's records were revie [#permalink]

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In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade agency's records were reviewed in 1994 in light of information then newly available about neighboring Goro. The review revealed that in every year since 1963, the agency's projection of what Goro's gross national product (GNP) would be five years later was a serious underestimate. The review also revealed that in every year since 1963, the agency estimated Goro's GNP for the previous year—a Goro state secret—very accurately.

Of the following claims, which is most strongly supported by the statements given ?

(A) Goro's GNP fluctuated greatly between 1963 and 1994.
(B) Prior to 1995, Goro had not released data intended to mislead the agency in making its five-year projections.
(C) The amount by which the agency underestimated the GNP it projected for Goro tended to increase over time.
(D) Even before the new information came to light, the agency had reason to think that at least some of the five-year projections it had made were inaccurate.
(E) The agency's five year projections of Goro's GNP had no impact on economic planning in Marut.

Source - OG 2017
Question No - 661
[Reveal] Spoiler: OA

Last edited by hazelnut on 27 Aug 2017, 22:07, edited 3 times in total.
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Hi Experts / chetan2u,

I was able to choose the correct answer D because I did not find any other option correct. As its a must be true question then we can eliminate option which talk about extra information.

A) We can't infer that GNP fluctuated GREATLY. All we know that the projections were not accurate. So eliminate
b) We don't know anything about data which Goro provided. ELIMINATE
C) The amount INCREASE OVER TIME--- We don't know---Eliminate
E) Economic planning -- OUT of Box-- Eliminate

In the end only D remains. So I opted for it.
But I don;t know anything, whats's going on in the argument.

The rough idea that I have is there is a agency which is making projections for Goro. Lets say present year is 2015
and the projection for Goro for 2020 is 10 Million but the agency underestimated it to 6 Million.
As mentioned in the argument- "The review also revealed that in every year since 1963, the agency estimated Goro's GNP for the previous year -a Goro state secret- very accurately."

So, lets say that the real projection for 2019 is 5 Million but this time Agency projected correctly.
That's all I can comprehend from the argument.

How can we infer D..?
Please assist.
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Re: In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade agency's records were revie [#permalink]

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PrakharGMAT wrote:
In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade agency's records were reviewed in 1994 in light of informtion then newly available about neighbouring Goro. The review revealed that in every year since 1963, the agency's projection of what Goro's gross national product (GNP) would be five years later was a serious underestimate. The review also revealed that in every year since 1963, the agency estimated Goro's GNP for the previous year -a Goro state secret- very accurately.

Of the following claims, which is most strongly supported by the statements given ?

A) Goro's GNP fluctuated greatly between 1963 and 1994.
B) Prior to 1995, Goro had not released data intended to mislead the agency in making its five-year projections.
C) The amount by which the agency underestimated the GNP it projected for Goro tended to increase over time.
D) Even before the new information came to light, the agency had reason to think that at least some of the five-year projections it had made were inaccurate.
E) The agency's five year projections of Goro's GNP had no impact on economic planning in Marut.

Source- OG 2017
Question no- 661


Will go for D
Reason: The projection for 5 years was REPEATEDLY underestimated + Projection for last year was REPEATEDLY accurate. It means that even when estimators were having accurate data for one year, they repeatedly forecast wrong data for 5 years. Therefor agency was not thinking at all.

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Re: In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade agency's records were revie [#permalink]

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PrakharGMAT wrote:
In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade agency's records were reviewed in 1994 in light of informtion then newly available about neighbouring Goro. The review revealed that in every year since 1963, the agency's projection of what Goro's gross national product (GNP) would be five years later was a serious underestimate. The review also revealed that in every year since 1963, the agency estimated Goro's GNP for the previous year -a Goro state secret- very accurately.

Of the following claims, which is most strongly supported by the statements given ?

A) Goro's GNP fluctuated greatly between 1963 and 1994.
B) Prior to 1995, Goro had not released data intended to mislead the agency in making its five-year projections.
C) The amount by which the agency underestimated the GNP it projected for Goro tended to increase over time.
D) Even before the new information came to light, the agency had reason to think that at least some of the five-year projections it had made were inaccurate.
E) The agency's five year projections of Goro's GNP had no impact on economic planning in Marut.

Source- OG 2017
Question no- 661


As you have been able to eliminate all other choices except D, lets see how D can be the answer..

ARGUMENT -


The information is available ONLY in 1994 about previous 30 years 1963 to 1993.
The agency estimates the GNP of any year twice. ONCE - 5 years prior to that year and SECOND time - 1 year after that year.
so lets take year 1970.

In 1965, it estimated the GNP to be say 10, while it was actually 15 that year. then again in 1971, it estimated the GNP of the prevoius year that is 1970 to be 14, closer to the actuals.

Now there is no new information available with the agency but it has reviewed its estimates and it would review the data ONLY if it feels it has gone wrong earlier..
THIS is the exact info given by choice D..

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Re: In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade agency's records were revie [#permalink]

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To explain why D is correct:

Let's say for example, that in 1963, the agency predicted 1968 GNP to be X amount.
Let's fast forward to 1969, when the agency was able to tell what the 1968 GNP actually was, say Y amount.

So at this point, the agency could make a simple comparison of X vs Y. The agency could then tell their prediction of the 1968 GNP in 1963 was way under. In other words, they had reason to believe their prediction of the 1968 GNP was inaccurate.

Other answer choices are wrong for obvious reasons.

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To explain why D is correct:

Let's say for example, that in 1963, the agency predicted 1968 GNP to be X amount.
Let's fast forward to 1969, when the agency was able to tell what the 1968 GNP actually was, say Y amount.

So at this point, the agency could make a simple comparison of X vs Y. The agency could then tell their prediction of the 1968 GNP in 1963 was way under. In other words, they had reason to believe their prediction of the 1968 GNP was inaccurate.

Other answer choices are wrong for obvious reasons.

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Re: In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade agency's records were revie [#permalink]

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New post 24 Jun 2016, 00:27
HiLine wrote:
To explain why D is correct:

Let's say for example, that in 1963, the agency predicted 1968 GNP to be X amount.
Let's fast forward to 1969, when the agency was able to tell what the 1968 GNP actually was, say Y amount.

So at this point, the agency could make a simple comparison of X vs Y. The agency could then tell their prediction of the 1968 GNP in 1963 was way under. In other words, they had reason to believe their prediction of the 1968 GNP was inaccurate.

Other answer choices are wrong for obvious reasons.


how to counter option B?

i am confused..B says Goro had not released data intended to mislead the agency in making its five-year projections

so this supports the argument (as a new info) that information was not leaked which supports the argument that agency 's estimation was not correct.

pls help with B

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Re: In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade agency's records were revie [#permalink]

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New post 01 Aug 2016, 02:21
hsbinfy wrote:
HiLine wrote:
To explain why D is correct:

Let's say for example, that in 1963, the agency predicted 1968 GNP to be X amount.
Let's fast forward to 1969, when the agency was able to tell what the 1968 GNP actually was, say Y amount.

So at this point, the agency could make a simple comparison of X vs Y. The agency could then tell their prediction of the 1968 GNP in 1963 was way under. In other words, they had reason to believe their prediction of the 1968 GNP was inaccurate.

Other answer choices are wrong for obvious reasons.


how to counter option B?

i am confused..B says Goro had not released data intended to mislead the agency in making its five-year projections

so this supports the argument (as a new info) that information was not leaked which supports the argument that agency 's estimation was not correct.

pls help with B


I will try to explain.
I guess first of all you are confusing this question with a strengthener question.The question is clearly a must be true statement question.
according to option B Goro had not released data intended to mislead the agency in making five years projections.But no where argument tells about the data intended to mislead agency.In must be true questions options that provide outside information are always wrong.Whereas option d is a clear winner as explained by experts above.

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Lets see what is happening here :

Since 1963 F.T.A has been making 1) 5 year predictions inaccurately but 2) making calculations for previous year accurately.

So, if in 1963 it made predictions for next 5 years as follows : 64-5 mil , 65-6 mil , 66- 6 mil , 67 - 5 mil , 68 - 5 mil . . We know that these predictions are inaccurate/underestimated.

Now, 2 years later in 1965, F.T.A does the calculation for GNP of 1964 and finds out the actual value is 8 million. Now the agency should have found out its mistake in predicting the GNP in 1964 itself because the prediction it made in 1963 about 1964 did not co-incide with the actual value of GNP.

So, Even before the new information came to light, the agency had reason to think that at least some of the five-year projections it had made were inaccurate.

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Re: In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade agency's records were revie [#permalink]

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let us review what we know.

1. every year since 1963, the agency's projected what the GNP would be 5 years later. i.e. projections were made for the years 1968, 1969, 1970, ... etc.
2. this projection was a serious underestimate.

3. Every year since 1963, they estimated the GNP of the previous year. So, estimates were made for 1962, 1963, 1964, ..., 1968, 1969, 1970,... etc.
4. this estimate is very accurate.

What does this imply? That in 1969, when they made an estimate for 1968's GNP they knew that the projection made in 1963 about 1968's GNP was a serious underestimate.

Which option states this? Option D.

Let us look at other answer options -

Option A - Incorrect.
We have no idea how Goro's GNP fluctuated between 1963 and 1994 because we have no data about the actual GNP values.

Option B - Incorrect.
"Prior to 1995, Goro had not released data intended to mislead the agency in making its five-year projections." -
Implies that Goro released data to mislead the agency after 1995. We cannot infer this.

Moreover, even if Goro did release data to mislead the agency, the argument and its points still stand.

Option C - Incorrect.
No such thing can be inferred from the paragraph. GNP could have been same over the years and thus amount of underestimation could have been the same.

Option E - Incorrect.
We cannot infer anything about its impact on economic planning.
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Re: In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade agency's records were revie [#permalink]

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New post 13 Apr 2017, 19:32
PrakharGMAT wrote:
In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade agency's records were reviewed in 1994 in light of information then newly available about neighboring Goro. The review revealed that in every year since 1963, the agency's projection of what Goro's gross national product (GNP) would be five years later was a serious underestimate. The review also revealed that in every year since 1963, the agency estimated Goro's GNP for the previous year -a Goro state secret- very accurately.

Of the following claims, which is most strongly supported by the statements given ?

A) Goro's GNP fluctuated greatly between 1963 and 1994.
B) Prior to 1995, Goro had not released data intended to mislead the agency in making its five-year projections.
C) The amount by which the agency underestimated the GNP it projected for Goro tended to increase over time.
D) Even before the new information came to light, the agency had reason to think that at least some of the five-year projections it had made were inaccurate.
E) The agency's five year projections of Goro's GNP had no impact on economic planning in Marut.

Source- OG 2017
Question No- 661


Goro’s GNP
 
Step 1: Identify the Question

The phrase most strongly supported by the statements given in the question stem shows that this is an Inference problem. (It might seem like a strengthen question. Note that the wording of the question stem asks which answer choice is supported by the information from the argument. A strengthen question would ask the reverse: which answer choice supports the argument given above?)

Step 2: Deconstruct the Argument

1963-1994: M underestimates G’s GNP 5yrs later
1963-1994: M right about G’s GNP in prev. year (state secret)

Each year, Marut attempts to estimate Goro’s GNP from the previous year, and also attempts to predict Goro’s GNP in five years. Even though the GNP from the previous year is a state secret, Marut estimates it correctly. On the other hand, Marut always underestimates what Goro’s GNP will be in five years. Marut didn’t learn about these trends until 1994, when the actual data emerged.

Step 3: Pause and State the Goal

On Inference questions, the goal is to find an answer that can be proven true using ONLY the facts stated in the argument.

Step 4: Work from Wrong to Right

(A) The argument provides no information about Goro’s actual GNP. Since the argument only describes the relationship between Marut’s predictions and Goro’s GNP, rather than providing actual data for either, no conclusions about trends in the GNP itself can be supported.

(B) There’s no way to know for sure, just based on the argument, what data Goro released. It’s possible that misleading information caused Marut’s poor predictions. It’s also possible that a lack of information had the same result.

(C) Imagine a simple scenario in which Goro’s GNP was exactly $100 every year. Every year, Marut estimated that the GNP in 5 years would be $50, and that the GNP from the previous year had been $100. In this scenario, every statement in the argument would be correct, and the amount by which Marut underestimated Goro’s GNP would be consistent, rather than increasing. Because this answer choice isn’t necessarily true in all situations, it isn’t the correct answer.

(D) CORRECT. The agency made at least two estimates for every year’s GNP. One estimate was made five years previous; the other was made in the following year. (For instance, two estimates were made for the GNP in 1990: one in 1985, and another in 1991). Since the following year’s estimate was consistently accurate, while the five-years-previous estimate was consistently inaccurate, the two estimates must have been different. In order to change the following-year estimate, the agency must have believed that the original prediction was inaccurate.

(E) The argument makes no claims about the effects of the estimates, only about whether they were accurate.
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Re: In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade agency's records were revie [#permalink]

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New post 19 Apr 2017, 00:23
In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade agency's records were reviewed in 1994 in light of information then newly available about neighboring Goro. The review revealed that in every year since 1963, the agency's projection of what Goro's gross national product (GNP) would be five years later was a serious underestimate. The review also revealed that in every year since 1963, the agency estimated Goro's GNP for the previous year -a Goro state secret- very accurately.

Of the following claims, which is most strongly supported by the statements given ?

A) Goro's GNP fluctuated greatly between 1963 and 1994.
B) Prior to 1995, Goro had not released data intended to mislead the agency in making its five-year projections.
C) The amount by which the agency underestimated the GNP it projected for Goro tended to increase over time.
D) Even before the new information came to light, the agency had reason to think that at least some of the five-year projections it had made were inaccurate.
E) The agency's five year projections of Goro's GNP had no impact on economic planning in Marut.

My 2 cents.
The answer has to be true based on the given stem. With this thinking, we can cross all but D.
For D, I could not understand the reasoning but I think I get it now.
So, since 1963, the agency estimated what GNP would be in 1968, inaccurately.
Since 1963, the agency estimated what GNP would be in the previous year, correctly.

This means that in 1969, the agency had two numbers to compare and probably realized oops, they were wrong at times.

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Can any expert reply - what is the best approach to solve such CR questions?

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New post 08 Jul 2017, 10:42
Selected option B as considered an strengthen question.

Will B be a right answer had this been a strengthen questions ?

Also I still do not get it why it is an inference question s: "Of the following claims, which is most strongly supported by the statements given ?"

Please see if this is right interpretation :

Inference/ Must be True : Of the following options , which one is strongly supported by the statements given in the argument.

Strengthen : Of the following Options, which one strongly supports the statements given in the argument.
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New post 16 Jul 2017, 20:25
hello, I believe that in any well-known GMAT book, no method to deal with such question is given.

Further detail about my question: Clearly, options are somewhat unintelligible.

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Re: In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade agency's records were revie [#permalink]

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New post 29 Nov 2017, 16:41
282552 wrote:
Selected option B as considered an strengthen question.

Will B be a right answer had this been a strengthen questions ?

Also I still do not get it why it is an inference question s: "Of the following claims, which is most strongly supported by the statements given ?"

Please see if this is right interpretation :

Inference/ Must be True : Of the following options , which one is strongly supported by the statements given in the argument.

Strengthen : Of the following Options, which one strongly supports the statements given in the argument.


Strongly supported - Means we need to find the answer choice which has info related to the passsage. Its not related to finding answer choice which can strengthen the conclusion of the argument. Strengthen/Weaken deals with conclusion of the argument.

Whenever u see words such as Infered/ Strongly supports / Can be concluded than those are inference type questions.

Hope thats helps.

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Re: In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade agency's records were revie [#permalink]

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New post 29 Nov 2017, 18:19
282552 wrote:
Selected option B as considered an strengthen question.

Will B be a right answer had this been a strengthen questions ?

Also I still do not get it why it is an inference question s: "Of the following claims, which is most strongly supported by the statements given ?"

Please see if this is right interpretation :

Inference/ Must be True : Of the following options , which one is strongly supported by the statements given in the argument.

Strengthen : Of the following Options, which one strongly supports the statements given in the argument.


you are right about the pattern in B; such pattern is common for the right answers of strengthen questions.
Cleraly, this question type is an inference question. The word "support" alone does not indicate any type of question; you have to see "support" what in order to identify the true type of the question.

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