In the realm of the psychology of decision-making, the role of expert

Question

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Passage # 340, Date : 19-Sep-2019
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In the realm of the psychology of decision-making, the role of expert intuition is under attack. People's inclination is to trust intuition and to point to many examples, across various disciplines, in which experts are able to make difficult judgments in seemingly negligible amounts of time. But this trust of intuition has been undermined by the research of other psychologists who have taken care to expose and document thoroughly the cognitive biases that can impede both our use of intuition and our ability to judge the use of intuition in a broader sense. How, then, can we know when expert intuition is to be trusted?
 
Gary Klein's research has provided a basis on which to establish how expert intuition, also known as naturalistic decision making, works at its best, which it does according to a recognition-primed decision model. One of his studies examined the thought process of experienced fireground commanders, the leaders of firefighter teams. One finding was that fireground commanders do not only consider a small number of options in deciding how to approach a firefighting situation; they tend to consider only one option. When presented with a situation, the commander was observed to think of one option spontaneously and then mentally simulate acting on that proposed course of action to see whether it would work. More specifically, Klein formulated the recognition-primed decision model as occurring in two steps. In the first step, a tentative plan comes to the mind of the expert by an automatic function of associative memory; the situation provides one or more clues recognized by the expert. Second, the plan is mentally simulated to see whether it will work.
 
When, then, can expert intuition be tested? Klein's model implies that the successful application of expert intuition will be limited to circumstances in which situational clues are reproduced and can be recognized over time. Situational regularity and individual memory are critical components of success. Reliable intuition is primarily--and, arguably, nothing more than--recognition. By this somewhat controversial inference, intuition is essentially memory. Consequently, all cases in which we might anticipate expert intuition to be valid are not equally conquerable by this faculty. Some environments may not be sufficiently regular to be predictable, and, of course, even in regular environments, the  presumed expert  must draw on a sufficient depth of practice. We can conclude, for example, that if a dedicated stock picker is to make judgments as skilled as those of a dedicated chess player, that person will do so not by relying primarily on intuition. One might note that, with or without intuition, it is incumbent on any true expert to know the limits of his or her knowledge.   1 
 B 
 1. According to the passage, employing expert intuition involves each of the following actions EXCEPT

A. associating current situations with recalled situations
B. reviewing multiple options
C. focusing on one option
D. forming a tentative plan
E. simulating results mentally

2 
 D 
 2. The passage suggests which of the following about the research performed by Gary Klein?

A. It has defended against the attacks made by some psychologists on expert intuition as a decision-making tool.
B. It has applied knowledge already common in the discipline of firefighting to improve the use of expert intuition in other fields.
C. It has drawn conclusions based on what fireground commanders say they do, not on what they actually do.
D. It has advanced our understanding of when expert intuition is most reliable.
E. It has provided grounds to believe that, in certain fields, expert intuition is the superior basis for making decisions.

3 
 C 
 3. Which of the following best exemplifies a case most suitable for expert intuition as it is described in the passage?

A. An expert must choose among a set of unfamiliar options to address a familiar problem.
B. An expert must apply a familiar course of action to a novel situation.
C. An expert must judge a new situation by recognizing similarities in it to past, well-understood situations.
D. An expert must draw on individual memory to generate a unique solution to a somewhat familiar problem.
E. An expert must take a course of action in a situation in which analytic decision-making methods are not possible.

4 
 D 
 4. The passage indicates that the dedicated stock picker differs from the dedicated chess player in that

A. the stock picker has a lesser understanding of his field of study
B. the stock picker works in a field that has been studied less scientifically
C. the stock picker is more prone to overconfidence
D. the stock picker operates in a less regular environment
E. the stock picker has insufficient depth of practice

5 
 C 
 5. It can be inferred from the passage that which of the following would most probably be one major difference in behavior between a "presumed expert," as mentioned in the  highlighted text , and a true expert?

A. The presumed expert only possibly has sufficient depth of practice in a given area, whereas the true expert certainly does.
B. The presumed expert does not have prior success in a given area, whereas the true expert does.
C. The presumed expert may decide intuitively even if he has insufficient depth of practice, whereas the true expert will seek another decision-making method if he has insufficient depth of practice.
D. The presumed expert will seek out only situations in which deciding intuitively is impossible, whereas the true expert will seek out only situations in which deciding intuitively is possible.
E. The presumed expert will make decisions under irregular conditions, whereas the true expert will make decisions under regular conditions.

6 
 E 
 5. The passage provides support for which of the following statements?

A. The best decision-makers who use expert intuition will generally be better decision-makers than those who use other decision-making methods.
B. If one intuitive decision-maker in a given field has better memory skills than other decision-makers, he will make better decisions.
C. Decision-making by expert intuition cannot be applied in conjunction with other decision-making techniques.
D. More creative individuals will be better able to simulate acting on a proposed course of action in their imagination to see whether it will work.
E. Deep individual memory is necessary, but not sufficient, for successful decision-making by expert intuition.

Source:  GMAT Free  (20)
Difficulty Level:   650

Sidmehra · Answer

Hi  sajjad ,

How much time would you allocate to such a passage? It took me around 10mins to solve this passage which I know is a bit more than required.

Sajjad1994 · Answer

Hello there

Although you have mentioned someone else but i would like to answer you.

4-5 minutes to read and understands the passage text and then 1 minutes for each question is fine and its totals to 10-11 minutes.

Thanks and regards

Harsh2111s · Answer

VeritasKarishma   GMATNinja

Below lines show psychologists attacked on expert intuition as a decision-making tool.
In the realm of the psychology of decision-making, the role of expert intuition is under attack.
 " But this trust of intuition has been undermined by the research of other psychologists" , 
And Klein defended it by giving appropriate reasons.
Hence A should be correct.
Please explain.

Harsh2111s · Answer

VeritasKarishma   GMATNinja 
I believe Expert intuition is used during providing a solution and not just judging.
D seems correct.
 SajjadAhmad 
Can you share official solutions for Q2, Q3, and Q5 ?

KarishmaB · Answer

2. The passage suggests which of the following about the research performed by Gary Klein?

A. It has defended against the attacks made by some psychologists on expert intuition as a decision-making tool.
B. It has applied knowledge already common in the discipline of firefighting to improve the use of expert intuition in other fields.
C. It has drawn conclusions based on what fireground commanders say they do, not on what they actually do.
D. It has advanced our understanding of when expert intuition is most reliable.
E. It has provided grounds to believe that, in certain fields, expert intuition is the superior basis for making decisions.

Gary Klein's research has provided a basis on which to establish how expert intuition, also known as naturalistic decision making, works at its best, which it does according to a recognition-primed decision model.
...
When, then, can expert intuition be tested? Klein's model implies that the successful application of expert intuition will be limited to circumstances in which situational clues are reproduced and can be recognized over time.

Gary Klein's research has helped our understanding of when expert intuition is reliable - in circumstances in which situational clues are reproduced and can be recognised over time.

Answer (D)

3. Which of the following best exemplifies a case most suitable for expert intuition as it is described in the passage?

A. An expert must choose among a set of unfamiliar options to address a familiar problem.
B. An expert must apply a familiar course of action to a novel situation.
C. An expert must judge a new situation by recognizing similarities in it to past, well-understood situations.
D. An expert must draw on individual memory to generate a unique solution to a somewhat familiar problem.
E. An expert must take a course of action in a situation in which analytic decision-making methods are not possible.

Klein's model implies that the successful application of expert intuition will be limited to circumstances in which situational clues are reproduced and can be recognized over time. Situational regularity and individual memory are critical components of success. Reliable intuition is primarily--and, arguably, nothing more than--recognition.

So an expert must judge a new situation by recognising similarities in it to past situations - situational regularity, recognition.

Answer (C)

5. It can be inferred from the passage that which of the following would most probably be one major difference in behavior between a "presumed expert," as mentioned in the highlighted text, and a true expert?

A. The presumed expert only possibly has sufficient depth of practice in a given area, whereas the true expert certainly does.
B. The presumed expert does not have prior success in a given area, whereas the true expert does.
C. The presumed expert may decide intuitively even if he has insufficient depth of practice, whereas the true expert will seek another decision-making method if he has insufficient depth of practice.
D. The presumed expert will seek out only situations in which deciding intuitively is impossible, whereas the true expert will seek out only situations in which deciding intuitively is possible.
E. The presumed expert will make decisions under irregular conditions, whereas the true expert will make decisions under regular conditions.

Some environments may not be sufficiently regular to be predictable, and, of course, even in regular environments, the presumed expert must draw on a sufficient depth of practice. ... One might note that, with or without intuition, it is incumbent on any true expert to know the limits of his or her knowledge.

A true expert will know the limits of his/her knowledge. A presumed expert may not.

Answer (C)

KarishmaB · Answer

Gary Klein does not defend against the attack. Note these lines from paragraph 1:

In the realm of the psychology of decision-making, the role of expert intuition is under attack. People's inclination is to trust intuition... But this trust of intuition has been undermined by the research of other psychologists ... How, then, can we know when expert intuition is to be trusted?

HIs research tells when one can trust expert intuition and when not. He is not taking anyone's side.

KarishmaB · Answer

(D) is not correct. The passage doesn't say anything about unique solution. Also, the situations need to be well understood.

Sajjad1994 · Answer

Official Explanation

2. The passage suggests which of the following about the research performed by Gary Klein?

Difficulty Level:   700

Explanation

This question, in using the word  "suggests,"  could require us to make a subtle inference about Klein's theory, understand a detail, or just apply a basic understanding of the theory. Since we have no detail to latch onto, we can start by comparing the answer choices with what we know about Klein's theory.

Scanning the answer choices,  (A)  describes defending against attacks. While the first paragraph mentions attacks, they are not the question that the author sets for the passage and answers with Klein's theory, which is, how and when is expert intuition valid? So (A) is out.

(B)  is out, because we get no information or implication that firefighters knew what Klein put in his theory.

Choice (C)  is hardly the central point of Klein's theory, but it may be accurate. We can look for grounding in the passage. In line, the passage says,  "the commander was observed to think of one option..."  Since they are observed to think, we have found justification against answer  choice (C) , so (C) is out.

Choice (D)  is squarely in the scope of what the passage discusses--when expert intuition is  "to be trusted" . Also, the fact that author draws conclusions based on the theory implies that the theory is of use. We don't know whether Klein is the only one to have conducted such research, but this answer choice has support and should stay in.

Choice (E)  sounds plausible, but we don't have enough information about other decision-making methods, which could contain rare but exceptionally good methods. And Klein studies when expert intuition  "works at its best" , not when it is the best or whether it is the best. Therefore, (E) is out.

The correct answer is (D).

3. Which of the following best exemplifies a case most suitable for expert intuition as it is described in the passage?

Difficulty Level:   600

Explanation

Paragraph three  allows us to answer this question: the author concludes that expert intuition is best suited to situations in which we have: 1) situational regularity and 2) individual memory (which includes sufficient individual experience). Let's see which of the answer choices have both these characteristics.

Both (A) and (B)  entail a lack of situational regularity, so they are out. For that matter,  choices (C) and (D)  may as well. But choice  (C)  is a little different in that the situation, though new, is not totally novel; the expert recognizes similarities in it. That's the use of associative memory. So  (C)  could work.

(B)  is different from  (C)  because in  (B) , we have no reason to believe that the familiar course of action is suited to the novel situation. So  (A), (B), and (D)  are out, and  (C)  is in.

Choice (E)  gives a common-sense statement, but one which is not supported by the passage; the passage actually undermines this idea by stating specific conditions needed for expert intuition to work, not just a certain scarcity of alternatives.

The correct answer is (C).

5. It can be inferred from the passage that which of the following would most probably be one major difference in behavior between a "presumed expert," as mentioned in the highlighted text, and a true expert?

Difficulty Level:   700

Explanation

Let's form our own theory about this question before we have to run the gauntlet of temptation that is a set of answer choices. The whole point of calling someone a  "presumed expert"  is that there are situations in which expert intuition is only allegedly in use. That's the point of the passage--we need to know when it's applicable. Specifically in lines, the author is describing a regular environment, and saying the presumed expert must have a sufficient level of practice. So the presumed expert, in this case, is someone who is operating in an environment conducive to expert intuition but who may or may not have the necessary level of individual experience. Let's see how far this point gets us in evaluating the answer choices.

Choice (A)  hits precisely on what we just said.

Choice (B)  involves prior success, so it's off the key point of experience and memory.

Choice (C)  is similar to  (A)  and shows promise.

Both  choices (D) and (E)  differentiate the presumed expert and the true one by the regularity of the conditions, but we know the conditions to be sufficiently regular, so they are out. We are left with  (A) and (C) . The passage says that  "it is incumbent on any true expert to know the limits of his or knowledge" . The author isn't claiming that the true expert know everything, evidently, because there are  "limits of his or her knowledge."  Therefore  (C)  is more appropriate than  (A) ; according to the author, true expertise entails knowing when one doesn't know enough. Not that this selection does not bar the possibility that presumed experts may fail to be experts because they have insufficient knowledge; rather, we have decided simply that  (C)  better differentiates from a  "true"  expert, which, we can infer, is something beyond a  "normal"  expert, since the author has used his last breath in this passage to add an additional criterion to define  "true"  expertise.

The correct answer is (C).

Hope it helps

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