In the realm of the psychology of decision-making, the role of expert

In the realm of the psychology of decision-making, the role of expert intuition is under attack. People's inclination is to trust intuition and to point to many examples, across various disciplines, in which experts are able to make difficult judgments in seemingly negligible amounts of time. But this trust of intuition has been undermined by the research of other psychologists who have taken care to expose and document thoroughly the cognitive biases that can impede both our use of intuition and our ability to judge the use of intuition in a broader sense. How, then, can we know when expert intuition is to be trusted?

Gary Klein's research has provided a basis on which to establish how expert intuition, also known as naturalistic decision making, works at its best, which it does according to a recognition-primed decision model. One of his studies examined the thought process of experienced fireground commanders, the leaders of firefighter teams. One finding was that fireground commanders do not only consider a small number of options in deciding how to approach a firefighting situation; they tend to consider only one option. When presented with a situation, the commander was observed to think of one option spontaneously and then mentally simulate acting on that proposed course of action to see whether it would work. More specifically, Klein formulated the recognition-primed decision model as occurring in two steps. In the first step, a tentative plan comes to the mind of the expert by an automatic function of associative memory; the situation provides one or more clues recognized by the expert. Second, the plan is mentally simulated to see whether it will work.

When, then, can expert intuition be tested? Klein's model implies that the successful application of expert intuition will be limited to circumstances in which situational clues are reproduced and can be recognized over time. Situational regularity and individual memory are critical components of success. Reliable intuition is primarily--and, arguably, nothing more than--recognition. By this somewhat controversial inference, intuition is essentially memory. Consequently, all cases in which we might anticipate expert intuition to be valid are not equally conquerable by this faculty. Some environments may not be sufficiently regular to be predictable, and, of course, even in regular environments, the presumed expert must draw on a sufficient depth of practice. We can conclude, for example, that if a dedicated stock picker is to make judgments as skilled as those of a dedicated chess player, that person will do so not by relying primarily on intuition. One might note that, with or without intuition, it is incumbent on any true expert to know the limits of his or her knowledge.

1. According to the passage, employing expert intuition involves each of the following actions EXCEPT

A. associating current situations with recalled situations
B. reviewing multiple options
C. focusing on one option
D. forming a tentative plan
E. simulating results mentally

2. The passage suggests which of the following about the research performed by Gary Klein?

A. It has defended against the attacks made by some psychologists on expert intuition as a decision-making tool.
B. It has applied knowledge already common in the discipline of firefighting to improve the use of expert intuition in other fields.
C. It has drawn conclusions based on what fireground commanders say they do, not on what they actually do.
D. It has advanced our understanding of when expert intuition is most reliable.
E. It has provided grounds to believe that, in certain fields, expert intuition is the superior basis for making decisions.

3. Which of the following best exemplifies a case most suitable for expert intuition as it is described in the passage?

A. An expert must choose among a set of unfamiliar options to address a familiar problem.
B. An expert must apply a familiar course of action to a novel situation.
C. An expert must judge a new situation by recognizing similarities in it to past, well-understood situations.
D. An expert must draw on individual memory to generate a unique solution to a somewhat familiar problem.
E. An expert must take a course of action in a situation in which analytic decision-making methods are not possible.

4. The passage indicates that the dedicated stock picker differs from the dedicated chess player in that

A. the stock picker has a lesser understanding of his field of study
B. the stock picker works in a field that has been studied less scientifically
C. the stock picker is more prone to overconfidence
D. the stock picker operates in a less regular environment
E. the stock picker has insufficient depth of practice

5. It can be inferred from the passage that which of the following would most probably be one major difference in behavior between a "presumed expert," as mentioned in the highlighted text, and a true expert?

A. The presumed expert only possibly has sufficient depth of practice in a given area, whereas the true expert certainly does.
B. The presumed expert does not have prior success in a given area, whereas the true expert does.
C. The presumed expert may decide intuitively even if he has insufficient depth of practice, whereas the true expert will seek another decision-making method if he has insufficient depth of practice.
D. The presumed expert will seek out only situations in which deciding intuitively is impossible, whereas the true expert will seek out only situations in which deciding intuitively is possible.
E. The presumed expert will make decisions under irregular conditions, whereas the true expert will make decisions under regular conditions.

5. The passage provides support for which of the following statements?

A. The best decision-makers who use expert intuition will generally be better decision-makers than those who use other decision-making methods.
B. If one intuitive decision-maker in a given field has better memory skills than other decision-makers, he will make better decisions.
C. Decision-making by expert intuition cannot be applied in conjunction with other decision-making techniques.
D. More creative individuals will be better able to simulate acting on a proposed course of action in their imagination to see whether it will work.
E. Deep individual memory is necessary, but not sufficient, for successful decision-making by expert intuition.