Based on stats of previous J intakes and general economic situation in EU I would estimate, that capacity Jan2015 class is near 520 students (about 320+ in Fonte and about 200+ in Singapore).
All waitlisted candidates need to realize that all places should be already distributed among admitted people. However, some of them will refuse to accept their places, so these places will be offered to waitlisters. Also bear in mind, that a few weeks before the program start AdComm will reject a part of waitlisted candidates, move a small part candidates to the waitlist of the next class (Sept 2015), and encourage others to reapply to the next classes. It looks like to happen after R2 deadline for Sept2015 class, so risks of staying in waitlist till the end are really big.
I believe all R3 admitted candidates should already receive their invitation to MBAconnect. So (as an old good tradition of this forum

) now it's time to play the game of monitoring MBAconnect numbers. Can anybody from admitted folks as a favor to other GC mates post overall number of Jan2015 students and Fonte/Sing split at least every other day during the next 4 weeks? Our gratitude will be very warm.
Next month numbers from MBAconnect will go up and down, showing some hope for waitlisters. Please remember that numbers are not online - admitted students receive their account details in a few days after notice, also accounts of students turned down their offers are deleted after a while.
My estimation from the reading threads from previous years is that around 20 places will be offered to waitlisted folks. It's still not a big number, as after R3 waitlist can include about 100-200 people, if not more. Hence, our odds are the same as on square one ((
Some noticeable movement off waitlist should happen next week, as AdComm will need to replace those R3 admitted candidates, who promptly refused to go further with INSEAD (e.g. because they already admitted to IE, HEC or IMD). Please let us know if you receive your admission.
Next movement can be expected close to Nov 10 - this is deadline for installment payment for admitted R3ers.
Last year discussions show that miserable progression can be expected in the last decade of November, when all admitted should make their 2nd tuition payments, and even in December (this forum include posts of some lucky candidates moved off the waitlist 2 weeks before the start of the program). However, in order to hope for such a scenario one should be able to make 1st and 2nd tuition payments and to resolve all administrative issues (visas, notice to employer, etc) very fast, so this option is not for everyone.
What does this mean? Virtually nothing. Each one should decide his or her own strategy - to stay in the waitlist till the end or start implementing Plan B (hope you have it). In the end of the day, it's only about choosing the business school, and you can receive the same knowledge and opportunities as in other schools, as without attending MBA. Sky is a limit, if you are committed to make difference each day of your life, but not just drifting along.
Let's hope for the better.
I wish all waitlisters good luck and to land to the school of their choice during the next months.