Kernland imposes a high tariff on the export of unprocessed cashew

If you want to find a statement that weakens an argument, you have to start by understanding that argument. Start with the conclusion: "removing the high tariff on the export of unprocessed cashew nuts} would seriously hamper the government's effort to reduce urban unemployment over the next five years."

Now make sure you understand the structure of the argument--how does the author arrive at that conclusion?

• The first sentence tells us about the high tariff that is currently in place and that ensures that unprocessed cashew nuts are sold to domestic processing plants.
• The second sentence tell us that more farmers could profit by growing cashews if the tariff were lifted and unprocessed cashews were sold at world market prices.
• We can infer that selling cashews at world market prices (without the tariff) would be more profitable for Kernland farmers than selling the cashews to domestic processing plants. In other words, the price at which farmers currently sell unprocessed cashews to domestic plants is LOWER than the world market price, but because of the high tariff the farmers cannot take advantage of the higher world market price.
• If the tariff were removed and the farmers began exporting more of their unprocessed cashews, sales of unprocessed cashews to domestic processing plants would be reduced. If the domestic plants have fewer cashews to process, the plants, which are all located in urban areas, would likely need fewer employees, potentially leading to layoffs.
• Thus, according to the author, removing the tariff would likely lead to a loss of jobs at domestic processing plants. This job loss would "seriously hamper the government's effort to reduce urban unemployment over the next five years."

Now, which of the answer choices most seriously weakens this argument?

Regardless of what cashew processing plants do with some of the byproducts, removing the tariff might still lower the amount of work for domestic plants, leading to a loss of jobs and possibly hampering the government's effort to reduce urban unemployment. This fact does not impact the author's argument, so (A) can be eliminated.

We are told that "if the tariff were lifted and unprocessed cashews were sold at world market prices, more farmers could profit by growing cashews." This implies that Kernland farmers would, in the absence of the tariff, sell more cashews to other countries and sell fewer cashews to domestic plants. Statement (B) does not impact this reasoning, so (B) can be eliminated.

Just because MORE people in Kernland are engaged in farming cashews does not mean that the number of people engaged in processing cashews is small. If a significant portion of Kernland's population is engaged in processing cashews, there could be a significant number of lost jobs if more cashews are exported. Choice (C) does not necessarily impact the author's reasoning and can be eliminated.

This statement does not weaken the author's argument. In fact, if true, this statement probably strengthens the author's argument. Currently, cashew processors in Kernland can sell processed nuts at competitive prices. If the tariff is lifted, cashew processors would have to raise their prices to maintain current profit levels, and this might lead to a decline in sales if some consumers are unwilling to pay those higher prices. A decline in sales would make it more likely that domestic plant workers might lose their jobs. Eliminate (D).

If an increasing number of small farmers leave their land to go to the cities, there will be fewer farmers to grow and harvest unprocessed cashews in Kernland. Gradually, the domestic plants might have fewer domestic cashews to process and will either have to import cashews at the higher world market price or reduce plant operations. Thus, statement (E) suggests that domestic plant workers might lose their jobs if the tariff is NOT removed. Furthermore, with more and more people (the former small farmers who left their land) moving to the cities looking for work, it is quite possible that urban unemployment will rise. If statement (E) is true, removing the tariff would encourage more farmers to stay in Kernland and grow cashews that need to be processed. Thus, statement (E) is evidence that removing the tariff will NOT seriously hamper the government's effort to reduce urban unemployment. This weakens the author's argument, so (E) is the best answer.