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# Many New Yorkers falsely believe that extreme temperatures

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Many New Yorkers falsely believe that extreme temperatures [#permalink]

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31 Jul 2011, 14:01
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Many New Yorkers falsely believe that extreme temperatures in winter will be followed by extreme temperatures in the following summer. The three New York winters with the lowest average temperature were followed by summers in which the average temperature was extremely high, yet the two hottest New York winters were also followed by summers whose average temperatures were extremely high.

Which of the following describes the greatest flaw in the author's reasoning?

New York winters and summers are not necessarily representative of winters and summers in other locations.
The author appeals to a previous argument that contains circular reasoning.
The evidence presented is insufficient to decide the matter with full certainty.
A causal relationship is being assumed without being proven.
The evidence presented supports the claim it is intended to refute.
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Re: CR - 700 level - new york [#permalink]

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31 Jul 2011, 16:31
E?
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Re: CR - 700 level - new york [#permalink]

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31 Jul 2011, 19:31
E for me as well.

Conclusion : The statement : that extreme temperatures in winter will be followed by extreme temperatures in the following summer is false.

Extreme temperature in winter can mean extremely high or extremely low. Hence the evidence/premises actually support the statement.

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Re: CR - 700 level - new york [#permalink]

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31 Jul 2011, 19:56
Source of the question, please ?
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Re: CR - 700 level - new york [#permalink]

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31 Jul 2011, 21:31
(E) it is.

(A): There is no relation drawn in the question between New York and other locations. Incorrect.
(B): There is no previous argument here. Incorrect.
(C): This is true (just five data points do not constitute conclusive evidence), but it does not present a fatal flaw in the author's reasoning. Incorrect.
(D): There is no causal relationship being assumed, just correlations. Incorrect.
(E): CORRECT. The coldest winters were followed by the hottest summers, and the hottest winters were also followed by the hottest summers. In all cases, extreme temperatures in winter were followed by extreme temperatures in summer. The author ends up supporting the claim he/she wants to refute.

The catch in option (E) is to realize that extreme temperature in winters need not mean extreme cold - it could also mean unnaturally hot weather in winter, uncharacteristic of the season, and so considered extreme.
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Re: CR - 700 level - new york [#permalink]

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01 Aug 2011, 09:03
Yes - It is E....Agree with crick20002002/EduGyan
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Re: Many New Yorkers falsely believe that extreme temperatures [#permalink]

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29 Oct 2012, 01:11
will anyone explain How E?? ..

i tuk C..
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Re: CR - 700 level - new york [#permalink]

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15 Dec 2012, 14:36
Yeah, I picked A because that first sentence suggests that New Yorkers are taking their observation of seasons and generalizing them to be true for all places. And I also failed to realize that the extreme temperature could mean unusual temperatures for the season. i was looking at it like this.
for the three years: trend of temperature.
<----winter temp____________0 degrees___________summer temp------>
for the two years: temp trends
_____winter temp----------------->0 degrees________summer temp------>

Dang.

GyanOne wrote:
(E) it is.

(A): There is no relation drawn in the question between New York and other locations. Incorrect.
(B): There is no previous argument here. Incorrect.
(C): This is true (just five data points do not constitute conclusive evidence), but it does not present a fatal flaw in the author's reasoning. Incorrect.
(D): There is no causal relationship being assumed, just correlations. Incorrect.
(E): CORRECT. The coldest winters were followed by the hottest summers, and the hottest winters were also followed by the hottest summers. In all cases, extreme temperatures in winter were followed by extreme temperatures in summer. The author ends up supporting the claim he/she wants to refute.

The catch in option (E) is to realize that extreme temperature in winters need not mean extreme cold - it could also mean unnaturally hot weather in winter, uncharacteristic of the season, and so considered extreme.
Re: CR - 700 level - new york   [#permalink] 15 Dec 2012, 14:36
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