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29 Jan 2023, 14:13
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The MBA admissions landscape has shifted yet again.
From rumors about the application volume for the current MBA admissions cycle to all the changes to the admissions process schools are making to accommodate those who were impacted by the massive layoffs, this is very far from "business as usual".
In my previous life as Dean of MBA Admissions, one of my responsibilities was to make predictions. OK, we did call them forecasts but it's still more or less the same thing. When I was asked to predict what would happen in a given MBA admissions cycle, I sometimes quoted a beloved baseball coach, Yogi Berra, who famously said, "It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future".
But here is the thing, the most important part of predictions is the thinking about them - what do we know about past trends that can perhaps helps shape our expectations of the future?
From "what was different in Round 1" to "what to expect as a Round 2 candidate" and "how Round 3 may be different than any Round 3 we've seen before", here is what I anticipate will happen this spring, summer and fall that you as an MBA candidate should know: MBA Admissions Predictions 2023
My recent MBA Admissions Predictions 2023 webinar had the highest registrations and attendance ever!
Clearly, so many of you wanted to discuss the most recent shifts in the MBA admissions landscape.
A ton of you asked for a summary of the webinar content. Here it is.
1. What was new and surprising in Round 1?
Applications at many schools were likely down in Round 1 and Round 2.
When I talk about this, candidates always ask, “How much down?”.
We will never see this data “per round” made publicly available. We will get to see total application volumes but that will happen much later – after enrollment numbers and class profiles are finalized next summer.
But here is the thing. If you know the answer, what will you do with it? Will you do something different in your application if you know your target school was down 10% vs 20%?
Now, what I do know is that last year, “75 percent of full-time two-year MBA programs saw reduced applications in 2022, while 64 percent of those same programs reported rises in international application rates”. We know this from GMAC’s “2022 Application Trends Report”.
It’s entirely possible that this is what is also happening this year – that the decline is not equally distributed across domestic (US) and international MBA candidates.
What I also know is that the candidates who got admitted in Round 1 were still the strongest ones. Plenty of candidates with GMATs in the 760-780 range didn’t even get an admissions interview or got ultimately denied or waitlisted.
To an extent, the MBA admissions ecosystem created the conditions for this – so many publications were dubbing Round 1 “once in a life-time chance to get into a more selective program”. So it’s not inconceivable that while quantity was down, quality was even higher than usual – I’ve certainly seen years like this in my previous role as Dean of MBA Admissions.
The biggest takeaway MBA candidates like you should keep in mind is that even in down cycles, schools will always have plenty of strong candidates. Their admit rate might go up a bit because the denominator becomes smaller. But you can rest assured that the numerator, the number that represents the admitted students, will consist of MBA candidates who meet the program’s admissions standards.
2. What to expect as a Round 2 candidate?
You’ve all seen the headlines – schools are making adjustments to the admissions process and timelines in response to the economic situation and labor market and most likely, also in response to what they are seeing in their application pipeline.
When the application volume is lower, the average odds do go up – but the candidates who benefit from it are still the strongest candidates. They might see traction at higher ranked programs compared to years when the volume was lower.
What does this mean for you?
If you are one of those candidate and you get an MBA interview invite, nail it! This might be your chance to get admitted to a more selective program. Even if you consider yourself a stellar interviewee – prep, prep, prep! Here’s how to prepare to ace your MBA admissions interview.
Another implication is that there may be more waitlist movement or it might happen sooner than typical. Here is my advice for those who find themselves on the waitlist.
3. How Round 3 this year may be different than any Round 3 we've seen before?
Round 3 of MBA admissions has rarely been a truly great option. It is well known that by the time Round 3 happens, the available seats in MBA classes are fewer and scholarships are scarce.
But Round 3 has always been an option for exceptionally candidates.
This year there might be more exceptions – the tech layoffs will bring more strong professionals into the MBA application pipeline. That may not be a very large number but the schools are clearly ready to welcome them with extended deadlines and accommodations such as test waivers or a simplified admissions process.
The key is to keep in mind that this does not mean candidates who hastily put together an MBA application will have a strong chance.
Round 3 of MBA admissions will continue to be less than ideal for international candidates because of the extra time admitted international students need to apply for their visas and organize their move overseas.
4. What the increase of international students in the most recent top MBA classes means for you?
I mentioned earlier that in its “2022 Application Trends Report”, GMAC shared that last year “75 percent of full-time two-year MBA programs saw reduced applications in 2022, while 64 percent of those same programs reported rises in international application rates”.
We saw this manifest itself in the class profiles schools published last summer – the percentage international students at top US business schools was almost universally up.
As an international candidate, you can view this as good news - schools will have to continue to admit more international candidates. But there will also be more competition within the international segment.
5. How not to get stumbled by the DEI questions that are now in every MBA interview and many essays?
Business schools are expected to train industry leaders, capable of addressing not simply business needs but society’s most pressing ones too. If you are applying to a highly selective MBA program, you are making a claim about your leadership potential and commitment. And you are expected to back that claim with proof and evidence.
Yet somehow candidates often get stumbled by the diversity, equity and inclusion questions. They become defensive at worst or confused at best. If it happened to you, I don’t blame you. We don’t have a perfect toolkit for navigating difficult questions.
But I am here to tell you that coming up with strong answers and examples starts with self-examination. Before you start answering that one essay or interview question, you need to ask yourself more questions first.
I offer you a list of exploratory questions that will support your discovery and help you build answers that are genuine and have substance.
6. Will ChatGPT disrupt the nature of MBA admissions essays?
The simple answer to this question is that the schools are right now tackling the ChatGPT questions from so many angles that go way beyond its use in admissions essays. I would argue that addressing any potential misuses of AI in the MBA application process is easier to do than doing the same as it relates to other coursework.
As far as AI in MBA admissions is concerned, don’t be surprised if the Analytical Writing Assessment portion of the GMAT all of a sudden becomes much more important and if we see an increase in the use of video essays.
7. Will Round 1 this coming fall be way more competitive due to the usual uptick in MBA applications during recessions?
So far, that trend has held true in previous recessions. And yet, we are seeing prospective students be quite cautious about it right now. I recently provided an opinion to the WSJ on that topic. You can see the article here.
Now the biggest question of all is what do YOU do with all of this information?
Tune out the noise. Focus on action instead of mere activitity.
Don’t be reactive. Be intentional. If you don’t get traction in Round 1 and Round 2, don’t assume Round 3 is your best option. Consider if re-applying in Round 1 next year gives you a better chance to put together a strong application and apply during the round when odds are traditionally the strongest.
If you applied in Round 2, get ready to rock your MBA interview.
If you are applying this fall, you are right now in this glorious, sweet spot where you can do so many things to build a strong application!
Schedule your first test to get a benchmark and have runway to re-take if necessary.
Build up your leadership profile – assess your extracurriculars and see where you can do something new or do something more in the places where you are already involved.
Start your school engagement!
And if you want to discuss how I can help you build the strongest possible application as I did for my very successful MBA candidates in the past, schedule a free consultation.
Onwards and upwards,
Petia
From rumors about the application volume for the current MBA admissions cycle to all the changes to the admissions process schools are making to accommodate those who were impacted by the massive layoffs, this is very far from "business as usual".
In my previous life as Dean of MBA Admissions, one of my responsibilities was to make predictions. OK, we did call them forecasts but it's still more or less the same thing. When I was asked to predict what would happen in a given MBA admissions cycle, I sometimes quoted a beloved baseball coach, Yogi Berra, who famously said, "It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future".
But here is the thing, the most important part of predictions is the thinking about them - what do we know about past trends that can perhaps helps shape our expectations of the future?
From "what was different in Round 1" to "what to expect as a Round 2 candidate" and "how Round 3 may be different than any Round 3 we've seen before", here is what I anticipate will happen this spring, summer and fall that you as an MBA candidate should know: MBA Admissions Predictions 2023
My recent MBA Admissions Predictions 2023 webinar had the highest registrations and attendance ever!
Clearly, so many of you wanted to discuss the most recent shifts in the MBA admissions landscape.
A ton of you asked for a summary of the webinar content. Here it is.
1. What was new and surprising in Round 1?
Applications at many schools were likely down in Round 1 and Round 2.
When I talk about this, candidates always ask, “How much down?”.
We will never see this data “per round” made publicly available. We will get to see total application volumes but that will happen much later – after enrollment numbers and class profiles are finalized next summer.
But here is the thing. If you know the answer, what will you do with it? Will you do something different in your application if you know your target school was down 10% vs 20%?
Now, what I do know is that last year, “75 percent of full-time two-year MBA programs saw reduced applications in 2022, while 64 percent of those same programs reported rises in international application rates”. We know this from GMAC’s “2022 Application Trends Report”.
It’s entirely possible that this is what is also happening this year – that the decline is not equally distributed across domestic (US) and international MBA candidates.
What I also know is that the candidates who got admitted in Round 1 were still the strongest ones. Plenty of candidates with GMATs in the 760-780 range didn’t even get an admissions interview or got ultimately denied or waitlisted.
To an extent, the MBA admissions ecosystem created the conditions for this – so many publications were dubbing Round 1 “once in a life-time chance to get into a more selective program”. So it’s not inconceivable that while quantity was down, quality was even higher than usual – I’ve certainly seen years like this in my previous role as Dean of MBA Admissions.
The biggest takeaway MBA candidates like you should keep in mind is that even in down cycles, schools will always have plenty of strong candidates. Their admit rate might go up a bit because the denominator becomes smaller. But you can rest assured that the numerator, the number that represents the admitted students, will consist of MBA candidates who meet the program’s admissions standards.
2. What to expect as a Round 2 candidate?
You’ve all seen the headlines – schools are making adjustments to the admissions process and timelines in response to the economic situation and labor market and most likely, also in response to what they are seeing in their application pipeline.
When the application volume is lower, the average odds do go up – but the candidates who benefit from it are still the strongest candidates. They might see traction at higher ranked programs compared to years when the volume was lower.
What does this mean for you?
If you are one of those candidate and you get an MBA interview invite, nail it! This might be your chance to get admitted to a more selective program. Even if you consider yourself a stellar interviewee – prep, prep, prep! Here’s how to prepare to ace your MBA admissions interview.
Another implication is that there may be more waitlist movement or it might happen sooner than typical. Here is my advice for those who find themselves on the waitlist.
3. How Round 3 this year may be different than any Round 3 we've seen before?
Round 3 of MBA admissions has rarely been a truly great option. It is well known that by the time Round 3 happens, the available seats in MBA classes are fewer and scholarships are scarce.
But Round 3 has always been an option for exceptionally candidates.
This year there might be more exceptions – the tech layoffs will bring more strong professionals into the MBA application pipeline. That may not be a very large number but the schools are clearly ready to welcome them with extended deadlines and accommodations such as test waivers or a simplified admissions process.
The key is to keep in mind that this does not mean candidates who hastily put together an MBA application will have a strong chance.
Round 3 of MBA admissions will continue to be less than ideal for international candidates because of the extra time admitted international students need to apply for their visas and organize their move overseas.
4. What the increase of international students in the most recent top MBA classes means for you?
I mentioned earlier that in its “2022 Application Trends Report”, GMAC shared that last year “75 percent of full-time two-year MBA programs saw reduced applications in 2022, while 64 percent of those same programs reported rises in international application rates”.
We saw this manifest itself in the class profiles schools published last summer – the percentage international students at top US business schools was almost universally up.
As an international candidate, you can view this as good news - schools will have to continue to admit more international candidates. But there will also be more competition within the international segment.
5. How not to get stumbled by the DEI questions that are now in every MBA interview and many essays?
Business schools are expected to train industry leaders, capable of addressing not simply business needs but society’s most pressing ones too. If you are applying to a highly selective MBA program, you are making a claim about your leadership potential and commitment. And you are expected to back that claim with proof and evidence.
Yet somehow candidates often get stumbled by the diversity, equity and inclusion questions. They become defensive at worst or confused at best. If it happened to you, I don’t blame you. We don’t have a perfect toolkit for navigating difficult questions.
But I am here to tell you that coming up with strong answers and examples starts with self-examination. Before you start answering that one essay or interview question, you need to ask yourself more questions first.
I offer you a list of exploratory questions that will support your discovery and help you build answers that are genuine and have substance.
6. Will ChatGPT disrupt the nature of MBA admissions essays?
The simple answer to this question is that the schools are right now tackling the ChatGPT questions from so many angles that go way beyond its use in admissions essays. I would argue that addressing any potential misuses of AI in the MBA application process is easier to do than doing the same as it relates to other coursework.
As far as AI in MBA admissions is concerned, don’t be surprised if the Analytical Writing Assessment portion of the GMAT all of a sudden becomes much more important and if we see an increase in the use of video essays.
7. Will Round 1 this coming fall be way more competitive due to the usual uptick in MBA applications during recessions?
So far, that trend has held true in previous recessions. And yet, we are seeing prospective students be quite cautious about it right now. I recently provided an opinion to the WSJ on that topic. You can see the article here.
Now the biggest question of all is what do YOU do with all of this information?
Tune out the noise. Focus on action instead of mere activitity.
Don’t be reactive. Be intentional. If you don’t get traction in Round 1 and Round 2, don’t assume Round 3 is your best option. Consider if re-applying in Round 1 next year gives you a better chance to put together a strong application and apply during the round when odds are traditionally the strongest.
If you applied in Round 2, get ready to rock your MBA interview.
If you are applying this fall, you are right now in this glorious, sweet spot where you can do so many things to build a strong application!
Schedule your first test to get a benchmark and have runway to re-take if necessary.
Build up your leadership profile – assess your extracurriculars and see where you can do something new or do something more in the places where you are already involved.
Start your school engagement!
And if you want to discuss how I can help you build the strongest possible application as I did for my very successful MBA candidates in the past, schedule a free consultation.
Onwards and upwards,
Petia
udaypratapsingh99
Joined: 12 Jan 2019
Last visit: 11 Nov 2025
Posts: 399
Given Kudos: 372
Location: India
Concentration: Strategy, Leadership
Schools: Fuqua '24 Harvard '24 LBS '24 NTU NUS Said '23 Ross '24 Sloan '24 Stanford '24 Tepper '24 Tuck '24 Wharton '24 Yale '24
GMAT 1: 660 Q47 V34
Products:
Schools: Fuqua '24 Harvard '24 LBS '24 NTU NUS Said '23 Ross '24 Sloan '24 Stanford '24 Tepper '24 Tuck '24 Wharton '24 Yale '24
GMAT 1: 660 Q47 V34
Posts: 399
02 Mar 2023, 09:44
Kudos
Bookmarks
To summarize, despite the decrease in total applications, the competition in the application process to top B-Schools is expected to at least not go down. This is due to the increase in the quality of applications, the increase in international applicants, and recent mass lay-offs
Therefore, the best bet is to focus on improving application quality. Emphasizing the strong leadership potential and commitment remains crucial, as diversity, equity, and inclusion may not significantly compensate for these qualities.
Additionally, the importance of the AWA section of GMAT and Video Essays may increase in response to the potential increased use of AI, such as ChatGPT, in MBA applications.
Finally, it's important to remember, "It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future".
Therefore, the best bet is to focus on improving application quality. Emphasizing the strong leadership potential and commitment remains crucial, as diversity, equity, and inclusion may not significantly compensate for these qualities.
Additionally, the importance of the AWA section of GMAT and Video Essays may increase in response to the potential increased use of AI, such as ChatGPT, in MBA applications.
Finally, it's important to remember, "It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future".
02 Mar 2023, 12:37
Kudos
Bookmarks
Here are some of my thoughts and predictions for 2023... 
Continued competition in the Top MBA programs: I feel this will be a 2-sided story. On one hand, there will be a decline of high application numbers so instead of 10,000 or 8,000 applications per year HBS will only get 5,000 but they still only have just 900-1000 seats for the incoming year so sure, it is 5:1 instead of 10:1 but the volume does not talk about quality of applicants so people will still get dinged and feel it is not "easier". At the same time, I can see application numbers dropping at higher rates at lower-ranked programs that lack the brand recognition of HBS.
More emphasis on diversity, equity, and inclusion: Many MBA programs have already begun to prioritize diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives, and this trend is likely to continue in 2023. Applicants should be prepared to demonstrate their commitment to DEI and explain how they have contributed to promoting diversity and inclusion in their personal and professional lives.
Focus on employability: I don't think this is new at all but schools really don't like to graduate a bunch of people who can't find jobs and they like to hear from employers how their grads can be more attractive. There are a few skills that they may favor for certain applicants. E.g. If you are applying for Consulting career track/goals, make sure you have all the qualitieis of a future consultant - both analytical and the delivery/interview skills. If you are looking at Tech, make sure you have tech background, skill
Cost is going to be a problem! The mortgage rates just hit 7% again and hovering between 6 and 7% which is pretty crazy.... so student loans will be following the same pattern and some people hitting 10% APR - that's going to be tough to muster to pay the sticker price, esp for international applicants and in light of the economy that can't decide if it wants to crash or burn
so I would expect many qualified applicants taking the lower-cost option and opting in for lower-ranked school with a scholarship vs. an M7 or a Top 10 for example, but only if the interest rates continue to stay this high. If they do, this would make the Top 10 a bit less competitive in a round-about way or perhaps it would make lower programs more competitive balancing things out a bit more. Will depend on the interest rates.
Continued competition in the Top MBA programs: I feel this will be a 2-sided story. On one hand, there will be a decline of high application numbers so instead of 10,000 or 8,000 applications per year HBS will only get 5,000 but they still only have just 900-1000 seats for the incoming year so sure, it is 5:1 instead of 10:1 but the volume does not talk about quality of applicants so people will still get dinged and feel it is not "easier". At the same time, I can see application numbers dropping at higher rates at lower-ranked programs that lack the brand recognition of HBS.
More emphasis on diversity, equity, and inclusion: Many MBA programs have already begun to prioritize diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives, and this trend is likely to continue in 2023. Applicants should be prepared to demonstrate their commitment to DEI and explain how they have contributed to promoting diversity and inclusion in their personal and professional lives.
Focus on employability: I don't think this is new at all but schools really don't like to graduate a bunch of people who can't find jobs and they like to hear from employers how their grads can be more attractive. There are a few skills that they may favor for certain applicants. E.g. If you are applying for Consulting career track/goals, make sure you have all the qualitieis of a future consultant - both analytical and the delivery/interview skills. If you are looking at Tech, make sure you have tech background, skill
Cost is going to be a problem! The mortgage rates just hit 7% again and hovering between 6 and 7% which is pretty crazy.... so student loans will be following the same pattern and some people hitting 10% APR - that's going to be tough to muster to pay the sticker price, esp for international applicants and in light of the economy that can't decide if it wants to crash or burn
so I would expect many qualified applicants taking the lower-cost option and opting in for lower-ranked school with a scholarship vs. an M7 or a Top 10 for example, but only if the interest rates continue to stay this high. If they do, this would make the Top 10 a bit less competitive in a round-about way or perhaps it would make lower programs more competitive balancing things out a bit more. Will depend on the interest rates. 
