Sajjad1994 Please grade! Thanks!
The argument by The Homebuilder magazine states that as per the survey conducted by the magazine, 70% of the respondents stated that they are willing to build or purchase a new house during the next two years. Based on this survey result the Homebuilder Magazine predicts that the growth within the construction industry will probably increase in the near future. Hence, the argument concludes that the construction industry offers incredible investment opportunities. The argument as stated includes several flaws and unstated assumptions, on the basis of which the argument is dependent on. Without knowing these assumptions or having evidence of such claim, the argument remains open to debate, weak and has no support to stand by itself.
Firstly, the argument establishes a correlation between the survey results and the growth of the industry. This correlation could be an imagination of the author of the argument. The growth of the industry is not dependent solely on the respondent of a particular survey. The argument needs to clarify assumptions behind establishing such correlation and answer the following questions. What is the portion of the house construction against the total construction. What portion of the GDP is contributed by the house construction and the total construction industry. These answers will help to establish the market share of the house construction in comparison to the construction industry as a whole. To strengthen this argument these answers need to be answered.
Secondly, the argument takes the survey results at its face value. The survey results could be biased based on the survey population it was sent to. What if the survey results were sent only to young families who currently do not own any properties and wish to purchase some in the near future, that will skew the percentage of respondents who are willing to purchase in the near future. The argument needs to provide details on the process of the survey, including the information of the survey sample size as these information can influence the results inferred from the survey. Without these assumptions stated the argument remains invalid.
Thirdly, the argument disregards the other factors of an economy that can affect the conclusion stated. The argument states that the construction industry offers a lucrative investment opportunities but what if there is a downturn in the economy, war or pandemic during the next two years or in the near future. For examples, many young families were planning to purchase homes prior to the COVID-19 pandemic but as the pandemic came into play, that number dropped significantly as the uncertainty concerning the economic well-being became more and more uncertain and thus, any investments made in the house construction suffered. What guaranteed that such circumstances will not repeat in the time horizon the argument speaks of? The argument needs to consider such risks factors and quantify those along with the survey results to draw a conclusion which is more realistic. This will in turn strengthen the argument.
Lastly, the argument makes an error known as "Part-to-whole". The argument uses the part (the house construction) to make conclusion about the whole (the construction industry). This is a common mistake among weak arguments. We cannot make conclusion of a total sample population based on the parts. what if the parts of the samples are the outliers? In that case the argument and the conclusion drawn will fall apart. To correct this, the argument needs to look at the whole and each and every components of the total population and establish relationships among those parts, only then a proper conclusion can be drawn.
In conclusion, as stated throughout the essay, the argument includes not just one but several major flaws and unstated assumptions. These flaws and unstated assumptions make the argument weak and open to debate. However, the argument can be strengthened if concrete examples, full disclosure of all assumptions and evidences are laid out "as is". Otherwise, the argument remains vulnerable to criticism.