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Criminals released from prison on parole have generally been put under

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Re: Criminals released from prison on parole have generally been put under [#permalink]

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New post 08 May 2015, 09:11
Ok, let's play some maths with this CR for a clearer picture.

1) The percentage of released criminals arrested while under intensive supervision = a/b , whereas a = number of re-arrested, b = number of released criminals under supervision

2) The percentage of released criminals arrested while under routine supervision = c/d , whereas c = number of re-arrested, d = number of released criminals under supervision

Based on one premise, we have a/b = c/d

3) Now read the conclusion again "so intensive supervision is no more effective than routine supervision in preventing criminals from committing additional crimes. " , we have x/ b >= y/ d , whereas x = number of additional crimes committed by criminals under intensive supervision, y = number of additional crimes committed by criminals under routine supervision

4) Now we look at C to see why it's the assumption. C reads " The proportion of arrests to crimes committed was not significantly higher for criminals under intensive supervision than those under routine supervision.",
arrests to crimes = re-arrested / number of additional crimes = a/x or c/y
C means a/x not much > c/y
Negating C means a/x >> c/y . , we have a/b = c/d based on premise, then (a/b) / (a/x) << (c/d) / (c/y) <=> x/b << y/d , which is the opposite of conclusion. Thus, C must be the assumption here.

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Re: Criminals released from prison on parole have generally been put under [#permalink]

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New post 04 Jul 2015, 23:59
Hello,

Can anyone comments about point raised by
andymann.

I am also on same page.

I think, the only reason (D) is incorrect is because it restricts the "sample space" to "criminals under intensive supervision.

Looking for expert reply.

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Re: Criminals released from prison on parole have generally been put under [#permalink]

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New post 09 Jul 2015, 23:32
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earnit wrote:
VeritasPrepKarishma wrote:
souvik101990 wrote:
Criminals released from prison on parole have generally been put under routine supervision. A recent program has allowed criminals to leave prison early under intensive supervision; they must obey curfews and in some cases they must be electronically monitored. The percentage of released criminals arrested while under supervision is the same for intensive supervision as for routine supervision, so intensive supervision is no more effective than routine supervision in preventing criminals from committing additional crimes.

Which one of the following is an assumption on which the argument relies?

(A) The criminals under intensive supervision, but not those under routine supervision, were required to work or attend school during their supervision period.

(B) All of the criminals who were arrested while under routine supervision had been in prison more than once before being paroled and put under supervision.

(C) The proportion of arrests to crimes committed was not significantly higher for criminals under intensive supervision than those under routine supervision.

(D) Of the criminals arrested while under intensive supervision, some would not have committed crimes if they had been under routine supervision.

(E) The number of criminals put under routine supervision was not significantly greater than the number of criminals put under intensive supervision.


Responding to a pm:

Premises:
Criminals released on parole are put under routine supervision.
A recent program allows criminals to leave prison early under intensive supervision;
The percentage of re-arrests is same for intensive supervision as well as for routine supervision.

Conclusion:
intensive supervision is no more effective than routine supervision in preventing criminals from committing additional crimes

The key word is highlighted. We are saying that since both types of supervision result in the same percentage of re-arrests, it means both have the same success rate in preventing crimes. There is a gap in this logic. Based on the number of re-arrests (which is same for both), we are assuming the number of crimes committed are the same under both types of supervision. What if, number of crimes committed is much higher under routine supervision but re-arrests are rarer? Then can we say that both methods are equally effective in preventing crimes? No. So option (C) is an assumption. It says that the proportion of arrests to crimes committed was similar in both.

On the other hand, (E) doesn't affect our argument. The number put under each is of no consequence to us. We are comparing percentages. Since their percentages are similar, we can certainly compare their effectiveness even if the number of criminals is different.

Answer (C)


VeritasPrepKarishma,

Just need a bit of clarity on the highlighted portion: It says that we are assuming that no. of crimes committed are same under both types of supervision.
Please correct me, if i am wrong but are we not assuming that the PROPORTION of re-arrests to crimes committed is same for both types of supervision.

\(Re-arrests/Crimes Committed\) for Intense Supervision = \(Re-arrests/Crimes Committed\) for Routine Supervision

We are given that the Percentage of re-arrests is same under both types of supervision but that doesn't mean that the number of re-arrests is same, right?
And by that logic, we can conclude that the two ratios must be equal, hence the same proportion but not necessarily have the same numbers.
For ex: re-arrests to no. of crimes committed proportion for both routine and intense supervision respectively-:
\(3/5 = 6/10\)
So, here the number of crimes committed are different, yet the two ratios are equal.

Please clarify.
Thank you.


We are given that the percentage of re-arrests is the same. This means that if 100 people each were released under the two systems, in both cases there were say, 10 re-arrests. (So 10% re-arrests in both cases) - This is given.
But to arrive at the conclusion, we are assuming that the percentage of crimes committed was the same in both cases. So if 100 people were released under each program, we need to assume that the same number committed crimes in both cases to be able to say that "intensive supervision is no more effective than routine supervision in preventing criminals from committing additional crimes".

Point is that the argument gives the link between re-arrests and criminals released. But it draws conclusion of the link between re-arrests and the actual number of crimes. The argument tells us nothing about the actual number of crimes. The actual number of crimes could have been very different in the two cases. Perhaps 30 of the people released under routine supervision committed crimes again but only 10 got re-arrested... On the other hand, only 15 of the people released under intense supervision committed crimes again and 10 got re-arrested. We are assuming that this is not the case to conclude that "intensive supervision is not more effective".
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Re: Criminals released from prison on parole have generally been put under [#permalink]

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New post 31 Oct 2015, 11:26
Criminals released from prison on parole have generally been put under routine supervision.
A recent program has allowed criminals to leave prison early under intensive supervision;
they must obey curfews and in some cases they must be electronically monitored.
The percentage of released criminals arrested while under supervision is the same for intensive supervision as for routine supervision,
Conclusion: so intensive supervision is no more effective than routine supervision in preventing criminals from committing additional crimes.

those on parole cannot be more than the people on routine supervision.
but % of criminals who got caught is same for both categories.
more people on intensive supervision may have got caught.

Which one of the following is an assumption on which the argument relies?

(A) The criminals under intensive supervision, but not those under routine supervision, were required to work or attend school during their supervision period..............OUT of scope
(B) All of the criminals who were arrested while under routine supervision had been in prison more than once before being paroled and put under supervision................This does not help us much. Although not really sure why it doesn't.
(D) Of the criminals arrested while under intensive supervision, some would not have committed crimes if they had been under routine supervision.
so this means hat they committed crimes only because they are under intensive supervision i.e., intensive encourages them to commit more crimes i.e., it is worse rather than being more effective. Negates the conclusion.

Well I got stuck between C and E.

(E) The number of criminals put under routine supervision was not significantly greater than the number of criminals put under intensive supervision.
This cant be true as you don't release almost half of the inmates on parole.

(C) The proportion of arrests to crimes committed was not significantly higher for criminals under intensive supervision than those under routine supervision.
Well I chose E at first but this came out to be the assumption when the test of negation is applied.
negated C: The proportion of arrests to crimes committed was significantly higher for criminals under intensive supervision than those under routine supervision.
i.e., more crimes under intensive supervision same as D thereby collapsing the argument.
So This is an assumption.

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Re: Criminals released from prison on parole have generally been put under [#permalink]

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New post 29 Mar 2016, 08:20
VeritasPrepKarishma wrote:
souvik101990 wrote:
Criminals released from prison on parole have generally been put under routine supervision. A recent program has allowed criminals to leave prison early under intensive supervision; they must obey curfews and in some cases they must be electronically monitored. The percentage of released criminals arrested while under supervision is the same for intensive supervision as for routine supervision, so intensive supervision is no more effective than routine supervision in preventing criminals from committing additional crimes.

Which one of the following is an assumption on which the argument relies?

(A) The criminals under intensive supervision, but not those under routine supervision, were required to work or attend school during their supervision period.

(B) All of the criminals who were arrested while under routine supervision had been in prison more than once before being paroled and put under supervision.

(C) The proportion of arrests to crimes committed was not significantly higher for criminals under intensive supervision than those under routine supervision.

(D) Of the criminals arrested while under intensive supervision, some would not have committed crimes if they had been under routine supervision.

(E) The number of criminals put under routine supervision was not significantly greater than the number of criminals put under intensive supervision.


Responding to a pm:

Premises:
Criminals released on parole are put under routine supervision.
A recent program allows criminals to leave prison early under intensive supervision;
The percentage of re-arrests is same for intensive supervision as well as for routine supervision.

Conclusion:
intensive supervision is no more effective than routine supervision in preventing criminals from committing additional crimes

The key word is highlighted. We are saying that since both types of supervision result in the same percentage of re-arrests, it means both have the same success rate in preventing crimes. There is a gap in this logic. Based on the number of re-arrests (which is same for both), we are assuming the number of crimes committed are the same under both types of supervision. What if, number of crimes committed is much higher under routine supervision but re-arrests are rarer? Then can we say that both methods are equally effective in preventing crimes? No. So option (C) is an assumption. It says that the proportion of arrests to crimes committed was similar in both.

On the other hand, (E) doesn't affect our argument. The number put under each is of no consequence to us. We are comparing percentages. Since their percentages are similar, we can certainly compare their effectiveness even if the number of criminals is different.

Answer (C)


Great analysis. I did it correct without deeply thinking this subtle point. The gap here is the crimes to re-arrested ratio rather than stated ratio of release to re-arrested. Fortunately, there was not more challenging option regarding this. So, I just considered C and E and thought it is a just percentage vs number trap. But now, I realise the unnoticed depth. I think we need to examine every word of the conclusion and look for any new/unfamiliar words there in order to find out the gap.

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Re: Criminals released from prison on parole have generally been put under [#permalink]

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New post 29 Mar 2016, 16:07
souvik101990 wrote:
Criminals released from prison on parole have generally been put under routine supervision. A recent program has allowed criminals to leave prison early under intensive supervision; they must obey curfews and in some cases they must be electronically monitored. The percentage of released criminals arrested while under supervision is the same for intensive supervision as for routine supervision, so intensive supervision is no more effective than routine supervision in preventing criminals from committing additional crimes.

Which one of the following is an assumption on which the argument relies?

(A) The criminals under intensive supervision, but not those under routine supervision, were required to work or attend school during their supervision period.

(B) All of the criminals who were arrested while under routine supervision had been in prison more than once before being paroled and put under supervision.

(C) The proportion of arrests to crimes committed was not significantly higher for criminals under intensive supervision than those under routine supervision.

(D) Of the criminals arrested while under intensive supervision, some would not have committed crimes if they had been under routine supervision.

(E) The number of criminals put under routine supervision was not significantly greater than the number of criminals put under intensive supervision.


Good one here.
Assumption: logic gap, alternate cause, questionable premise.

I see all 3 as possible assumptions.
But there is a big leap to the conclusion.
From percentage to decision. So watch out for option talking about numbers.
There is another leap. a jump from ARREST in the premise to conclusion on CRIME. So anyone arrested commited crime? OK I agree.
Let's check the option quickly.
Only C addresses the logic gap.

The trouble with E is that it said the opposite of what is in my logic gap.
C

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Re: Criminals released from prison on parole have generally been put under [#permalink]

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New post 22 Jul 2016, 03:06
Same doubt. Can someone clarify this VeritasPrepKarishma?


StudentHaas wrote:
Criminals released from prison on parole have generally been put under routine supervision. A recent program has allowed criminals to leave prison early under intensive supervision; they must obey curfews and in some cases they must be electronically monitored. The percentage of released criminals arrested while under supervision is the same for intensive supervision as for routine supervision, so intensive supervision is no more effective than routine supervision in preventing criminals from committing additional crimes.

Which one of the following is an assumption on which the argument relies?

(A) The criminals under intensive supervision, but not those under routine supervision, were required to work or attend school during their supervision period.

(B) All of the criminals who were arrested while under routine supervision had been in prison more than once before being paroled and put under supervision.

(C) The proportion of arrests to crimes committed was not significantly higher for criminals under intensive supervision than those under routine supervision.

(D) Of the criminals arrested while under intensive supervision, some would not have committed crimes if they had been under routine supervision.

(E) The number of criminals put under routine supervision was not significantly greater than the number of criminals put under intensive supervision.


I have doubt regarding option D, it says that "of the criminals arrested while under intensive supervision, some would not have commited crime if they had been under routine supervision", if we negate it , it becomes, "of the criminals arrested while under intensive supervision, some would have commited crime if they had been under routine supervision". I was wondering doesn't it kills the conclusion that intensive supervision is no more effective

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Re: Criminals released from prison on parole have generally been put under [#permalink]

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New post 23 Jul 2016, 05:26
jjindal wrote:
Same doubt. Can someone clarify this VeritasPrepKarishma?


StudentHaas wrote:
Criminals released from prison on parole have generally been put under routine supervision. A recent program has allowed criminals to leave prison early under intensive supervision; they must obey curfews and in some cases they must be electronically monitored. The percentage of released criminals arrested while under supervision is the same for intensive supervision as for routine supervision, so intensive supervision is no more effective than routine supervision in preventing criminals from committing additional crimes.

Which one of the following is an assumption on which the argument relies?

(A) The criminals under intensive supervision, but not those under routine supervision, were required to work or attend school during their supervision period.

(B) All of the criminals who were arrested while under routine supervision had been in prison more than once before being paroled and put under supervision.

(C) The proportion of arrests to crimes committed was not significantly higher for criminals under intensive supervision than those under routine supervision.

(D) Of the criminals arrested while under intensive supervision, some would not have committed crimes if they had been under routine supervision.

(E) The number of criminals put under routine supervision was not significantly greater than the number of criminals put under intensive supervision.


I have doubt regarding option D, it says that "of the criminals arrested while under intensive supervision, some would not have commited crime if they had been under routine supervision", if we negate it , it becomes, "of the criminals arrested while under intensive supervision, some would have commited crime if they had been under routine supervision". I was wondering doesn't it kills the conclusion that intensive supervision is no more effective


The negative statement of option D implies that some people would have committed crime irrespective of whether they were under routine supervision or intensive supervision. This implies that the intensive supervision was NOT more effective for "some " people - this statement is the same as the conclusion, whereas negating D should have broken down the argument, if D were an assumption. (If D were an assumption, negation of D would prove that Intensive supervision IS more effective)

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Re: Criminals released from prison on parole have generally been put under [#permalink]

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New post 21 Jun 2017, 21:16
VeritasPrepKarishma wrote:
souvik101990 wrote:
Criminals released from prison on parole have generally been put under routine supervision. A recent program has allowed criminals to leave prison early under intensive supervision; they must obey curfews and in some cases they must be electronically monitored. The percentage of released criminals arrested while under supervision is the same for intensive supervision as for routine supervision, so intensive supervision is no more effective than routine supervision in preventing criminals from committing additional crimes.

Which one of the following is an assumption on which the argument relies?

(A) The criminals under intensive supervision, but not those under routine supervision, were required to work or attend school during their supervision period.

(B) All of the criminals who were arrested while under routine supervision had been in prison more than once before being paroled and put under supervision.

(C) The proportion of arrests to crimes committed was not significantly higher for criminals under intensive supervision than those under routine supervision.

(D) Of the criminals arrested while under intensive supervision, some would not have committed crimes if they had been under routine supervision.

(E) The number of criminals put under routine supervision was not significantly greater than the number of criminals put under intensive supervision.


Responding to a pm:

Premises:
Criminals released on parole are put under routine supervision.
A recent program allows criminals to leave prison early under intensive supervision;
The percentage of re-arrests is same for intensive supervision as well as for routine supervision.

Conclusion:
intensive supervision is no more effective than routine supervision in preventing criminals from committing additional crimes

The key word is highlighted. We are saying that since both types of supervision result in the same percentage of re-arrests, it means both have the same success rate in preventing crimes. There is a gap in this logic. Based on the number of re-arrests (which is same for both), we are assuming the number of crimes committed are the same under both types of supervision. What if, number of crimes committed is much higher under routine supervision but re-arrests are rarer? Then can we say that both methods are equally effective in preventing crimes? No. So option (C) is an assumption. It says that the proportion of arrests to crimes committed was similar in both.

On the other hand, (E) doesn't affect our argument. The number put under each is of no consequence to us. We are comparing percentages. Since their percentages are similar, we can certainly compare their effectiveness even if the number of criminals is different.

Answer (C)


Hello karishma,

As per my understanding, the below is given in the question:
(#of criminals rearreasted under intense/ Total. # of criminals under Intense Sup.)*100= (#of criminals rearreasted under Routine/ Total. # of criminals under Routine Sup.)*100=

Thus, if we are saying in the conclusion that the # of rearrests are same, we are assume that the total # of criminals under the 2 programs are the same.

Thus, shouldn't answer Choice "E" be more relevant?

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Re: Criminals released from prison on parole have generally been put under [#permalink]

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New post 23 Jun 2017, 03:37
bhavikagoyal2009 wrote:
Hello karishma,

As per my understanding, the below is given in the question:
(#of criminals rearreasted under intense/ Total. # of criminals under Intense Sup.)*100= (#of criminals rearreasted under Routine/ Total. # of criminals under Routine Sup.)*100=

Thus, if we are saying in the conclusion that the # of rearrests are same, we are assume that the total # of criminals under the 2 programs are the same.

Thus, shouldn't answer Choice "E" be more relevant?


The conclusion does not say that # of rearrests are the same. It only says that "intensive supervision is no more effective than routine supervision in preventing criminals from committing additional crimes" based on the data that "percentage of released criminals arrested while under supervision is the same for intensive supervision as for routine supervision". Say the percentage in both cases is 25.
So the numbers for the two cases could be
"25 /100", "50/200" or
"25/100", "100/400"
etc

From this, it concludes that intensive supervision is no more effective than routine supervision in preventing criminals from committing additional crimes.
The actual numbers could be anything.
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Re: Criminals released from prison on parole have generally been put under [#permalink]

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New post 18 Sep 2017, 16:35
Criminals released from prison on parole have generally been put under routine supervision. A recent program has allowed criminals to leave prison early under intensive supervision; they must obey curfews and in some cases they must be electronically monitored. The percentage of released criminals arrested while under supervision is the same for intensive supervision as for routine supervision, so intensive supervision is no more effective than routine supervision in preventing criminals from committing additional crimes.

Which one of the following is an assumption on which the argument relies?

(A) The criminals under intensive supervision, but not those under routine supervision, were required to work or attend school during their supervision period.
- completely out of scope. who cares?

(B) All of the criminals who were arrested while under routine supervision had been in prison more than once before being paroled and put under supervision.
- same as "A"

(C) The proportion of arrests to crimes committed was not significantly higher for criminals under intensive supervision than those under routine supervision.
- correct as is. we're looking at the proportion of arrests, as clearly stated in the conclusion.

(D) Of the criminals arrested while under intensive supervision, some would not have committed crimes if they had been under routine supervision.
- same as "A"

(E) The number of criminals put under routine supervision was not significantly greater than the number of criminals put under intensive supervision.
- the only acceptable wrong answer here. if you carefully read the conclusion, the passage is concerned with the arrests made


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Re: Criminals released from prison on parole have generally been put under   [#permalink] 18 Sep 2017, 16:35

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