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RATT RACE: Economic modeling programs used to predict the future trend

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RATT RACE: Economic modeling programs used to predict the future trend  [#permalink]

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New post 05 May 2016, 11:56
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Economic modeling programs used to predict the future trends of financial markets are notoriously unreliable, primarily because of the enormous number of variables that affect the behavior of investors. No computer, even the most powerful and sophisticated supercomputer, is capable of processing the huge amounts of data necessary for even very short-term forecasts. Because there is no known technology that can make a computer fast enough to perform all of the necessary computations, computer models will never be accurate enough to predict market behavior reliably.
Which of the following, if true, most weakens the argument’s prediction?

A.Over the past five decades, the processing capacity of computers has doubled every two years on average.

B.Complex programs can be subdivided and distributed over multiple interconnected computers that work together to perform extremely large numbers of computations.

C.Banks and financial institutions have relied on computers for decades to track market fluctuations and trends for planning purposes.

D.The use of complexity theory has helped economists to create the most accurate models to date for predicting market crashes.

E.Modeling programs run on supercomputers are used by central banks throughout the world to assist in the formulation of national monetary policies.

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Re: RATT RACE: Economic modeling programs used to predict the future trend  [#permalink]

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New post 05 May 2016, 12:10
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  • Economic modeling programs used to predict the future trends of financial markets are notoriously unreliable,
  • primarily because of the enormous number of variables that affect the behavior of investors.
  • No computer is capable of processing the huge amounts of data
  • computer models will never be accurate enough to predict market behavior reliably.

Which of the following, if true, most weakens the argument’s prediction?

A.Over the past five decades, the processing capacity of computers has doubled every two years on average...........it can be still not sufficient for the purpose. Cant say :(

B.Complex programs can be subdivided and distributed over multiple interconnected computers that work together to perform extremely large numbers of computations.........This helps us explain the weakener

C.Banks and financial institutions have relied on computers for decades to track market fluctuations and trends for planning purposes........Banks can be wrong in decision making as well. same as A.cant say

D.The use of complexity theory has helped economists to create the most accurate models to date for predicting market crashes...........OFS. No mention of computers at all :wink:

E.Modeling programs run on supercomputers are used by central banks throughout the world to assist in the formulation of national monetary policies........same as C and A
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Re: RATT RACE: Economic modeling programs used to predict the future trend  [#permalink]

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New post 05 May 2016, 18:19
For me the answer is A.

The argument states that there is no known technology at present and then claims that there can never be any technology to process the complex data.

But if the technology is evolving rapidly (processing capacity),then there can be a time when even the most complex data can be processed rapidly.Thus,this option weakens the argument's conclusion.
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Re: RATT RACE: Economic modeling programs used to predict the future trend  [#permalink]

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New post 05 May 2016, 18:41
I would go with A as well.

Even though B is really close, it does not talk about whether the computations are fast enough for the economic modeling programs.
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Re: RATT RACE: Economic modeling programs used to predict the future trend  [#permalink]

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New post 05 May 2016, 20:57
souvik101990 wrote:
Economic modeling programs used to predict the future trends of financial markets are notoriously unreliable, primarily because of the enormous number of variables that affect the behavior of investors. No computer, even the most powerful and sophisticated supercomputer, is capable of processing the huge amounts of data necessary for even very short-term forecasts. Because there is no known technology that can make a computer fast enough to perform all of the necessary computations, computer models will never be accurate enough to predict market behavior reliably.
Which of the following, if true, most weakens the argument’s prediction?

A.Over the past five decades, the processing capacity of computers has doubled every two years on average.

B.Complex programs can be subdivided and distributed over multiple interconnected computers that work together to perform extremely large numbers of computations.

C.Banks and financial institutions have relied on computers for decades to track market fluctuations and trends for planning purposes.

D.The use of complexity theory has helped economists to create the most accurate models to date for predicting market crashes.

E.Modeling programs run on supercomputers are used by central banks throughout the world to assist in the formulation of national monetary policies.

Day 15 Question of the Verbal Contest:GMAT Club RATT Race
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Will go with D

A is wrong because it says that speed has doubled. Lets say speed of 100 is required and earlier it was 10, but now its 2x so 20...we still miss 80
d gives an alternate explanation. Computers are doing their work, through which economist create models, which saves crashes. So computers are indirectly related.
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RATT RACE: Economic modeling programs used to predict the future trend  [#permalink]

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New post 05 May 2016, 21:45
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souvik101990 wrote:
Economic modeling programs used to predict the future trends of financial markets are notoriously unreliable, primarily because of the enormous number of variables that affect the behavior of investors. No computer, even the most powerful and sophisticated supercomputer, is capable of processing the huge amounts of data necessary for even very short-term forecasts. Because there is no known technology that can make a computer fast enough to perform all of the necessary computations, computer models will never be accurate enough to predict market behavior reliably.
Which of the following, if true, most weakens the argument’s prediction?

A.Over the past five decades, the processing capacity of computers has doubled every two years on average.

B.Complex programs can be subdivided and distributed over multiple interconnected computers that work together to perform extremely large numbers of computations.

C.Banks and financial institutions have relied on computers for decades to track market fluctuations and trends for planning purposes.

D.The use of complexity theory has helped economists to create the most accurate models to date for predicting market crashes.

E.Modeling programs run on supercomputers are used by central banks throughout the world to assist in the formulation of national monetary policies.




The keyword in the conclusion is NEVER

Stem : Weaken question. So the first step is finding the assumption to attack.

Premise : There is no current technology to make a computer fast enough to predict reliably.

Conclusion: Models will never be accurate ( From today till infinity)

Assumption (Logical gap) : There shall never be computers fast enough. So we have to attack this assumption.

B talks about current computer technology. Had what it says been feasible, we'd already have reliable economic models. It is a GMAT trap because it is attacking the premise. Remember premises are stated facts, you can't attack them!!!!!!!.

A says capacity has doubled in past 5 years. So capacity will obviously increase in future. So hold on to this one.

C Out of scope. Yeah it has been used. But doesn't say anything about the computer making the Predictions. Just about tracking market fluctuations *Yawns*

D D says nothing about the computer's capacity. Maybe they made the most accurate one till date. But how reliable is it? 30%? 40?% ......

E Again not filling the logical gap. This one attacks the premise, not the assumption. Even if they assist in some ways, are they reliable? We have no info about the results. Again, maybe 60% accuracy is acceptable.

IMO : A
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Re: RATT RACE: Economic modeling programs used to predict the future trend  [#permalink]

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New post 06 May 2016, 08:55
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Correct Answer: (B)
The question stem identifies this as a Weaken question. The correct answer will give a fact that makes the prediction in the argument less likely to come true.
The prediction is that computer economic models can never be accurate enough to reliably predict the behavior of markets. The reason given is that even a supercomputer cannot be made fast enough to process all of the data necessary to make the modeling programs accurate.
The author’s prediction is based on the limitations of current computer technology. Whenever the argument makes a prediction of what can or cannot happen, look for a weakener that point out a current or future possibility the author has overlooked. In this case, the correct answer choice is likely to point out some technology that will make it possible to perform all of the necessary computations that a supercomputer could not.

Choice (B) points out the possibility of using multiple interconnected computers to process the large numbers of computations that a single computer cannot. This provides a possible means of making the models more accurate. Although it does not disprove the prediction, this fact is sufficient to call the prediction into question. This is the correct answer.

Choice (A) presents a fact about past increases in computer-processing capacity. This is not sufficient to suggest that the trend will continue or that computers will become fast enough to handle the modeling programs.

Choice (C) is outside the scope of the conclusion. The argument is about predicting financial markets, not tracking them.

Choice (D) has no effect on the conclusion. The “most accurate models to date” aren’t necessarily accurate enough to be reliable predictors of market behavior.

Choice (E) has no effect on the conclusion. The fact that central banks use models in formulating monetary policy says nothing about how the models are used or about the accuracy or reliability of the models used.
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Re: RATT RACE: Economic modeling programs used to predict the future trend  [#permalink]

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New post 07 May 2016, 00:22
Economic modeling programs used to predict the future trends of financial markets are notoriously unreliable, primarily because of the enormous number of variables that affect the behavior of investors. No computer, even the most powerful and sophisticated supercomputer, is capable of processing the huge amounts of data necessary for even very short-term forecasts. Because there is no known technology that can make a computer fast enough to perform all of the necessary computations, computer models will never be accurate enough to predict market behavior reliably.

Linkage to conclusion : Because there is no known technology that can make a computer fast enough to perform all of the necessary computations, computer models will never be accurate enough to predict market behavior reliably.

The argument makes a prediction that computer models won't be accurate to predict market behaviors.

The given fact to support the conclusion is no known technology that can make a computer fast enough to perform all of the necessary computations,

and No computer, even the most powerful and sophisticated supercomputer, is capable of processing the huge amounts of data necessary for even very short-term forecasts.

The assumption to arrive at the conclusion is :

1) Only technology can empower the computers/supercomputers to process the huge amounts of data.

2) There is no existing technology in the present /future that can help supercomputers

Only choice B is correct here in light of this assumption.
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Re: RATT RACE: Economic modeling programs used to predict the future trend  [#permalink]

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New post 09 May 2016, 08:02
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Thank you to all who shared your thoughts on this question! Souvik101990 has shared our official explanation, but answer choice A received so much attention that I wanted to comment on it specifically. Information about computers doubling in speed in the past cannot be presented as evidence that they will continue to do so in the future. We cannot say whether or not they are able to continue doubling in speed without making assumptions of our own.

In this argument, much of the evidence is about the inability of a single computer, even a supercomputer, to process the vast number of computations needed. As was mentioned in an earlier post, we take the premises as a given, which in this case is that one computer cannot do the job using known technology. Still, to weaken the prediction that these models will never be accurate, we need to find something beyond a single computer using current technology that will make this possible. That is why answer choice B is correct, offering a combination of computers instead of a single computer to tackle the job.

As you continue on your GMAT journey, I encourage you to revisit the questions from this RATT race in a week or two. Attempting questions a second time can be a powerful tool to reinforce what you've studied.

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Re: RATT RACE: Economic modeling programs used to predict the future trend  [#permalink]

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New post 09 May 2016, 10:00
Quote:
Economic modeling programs used to predict the future trends of financial markets are notoriously unreliable, primarily because of the enormous number of variables that affect the behavior of investors.No computer, even the most powerful and sophisticated supercomputer, is capable of processing the huge amounts of data necessary for even very short-term forecasts. Because there is no known technology that can make a computer fast enough to perform all of the necessary computations, computer models will never be accurate enough to predict market behavior reliably.


The main point of argument is highlighted above..

Since no Computer can process such huge amount of data = Accurate prediction is impossible.

Now lets check the options -

(A) If we take for granted that over the past five years processing capacity of computers has doubled and still we are not able to perform all of the necessary computations then it strengthens our argument.

(B) If the task is subdivided among multiple computers to perform extremely large numbers of computations then there is a possibility of perform all of the necessary computations , this weakens the argument in red above.

(C) Something that has been carrying on for years is not always perfect.

(D) Moves from the concept of using computers to complexity theory to economists using accurate models for predicting market crashes.

(E) Off topic , discusses use of supercomputers for formulation of national monetary policies.


Hence IMHO (B) is the best answer...
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Re: RATT RACE: Economic modeling programs used to predict the future trend  [#permalink]

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New post 30 Jun 2017, 17:49
Oh man, scopes in this argument continuously moves to every direction.
I still get confused by the argument structure.
My 2 cent: even though the passage is quite long, the only argument lies in the last sentence of the passage. The first and second sentences are just facts. Those facts help test takers to figure out the context of the argument.
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Re: RATT RACE: Economic modeling programs used to predict the future trend  [#permalink]

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New post 07 Jul 2017, 08:54
Imo B
B gives us a solution to overcome the problem cited in the argument.
Option A is tricky and we should avoid it .
There is no indication in the argument that the increase in computational capacity is sufficient to perform the complex analysis and prediction
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Re: RATT RACE: Economic modeling programs used to predict the future trend  [#permalink]

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New post 15 Jul 2017, 23:28
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HI Guys,

Sorry but In Para it clearly states that "Because there is no known technology that can make a computer fast enough to" .. Doesn't it rule out option B?

If someone explains where am I going wrong with reasoning, please?

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Re: RATT RACE: Economic modeling programs used to predict the future trend  [#permalink]

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