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Reviewing historical data, medical researchers in California found tha

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Reviewing historical data, medical researchers in California found tha  [#permalink]

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Project CR Butler:Day 7:Critical Reasoning (CR2)


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Reviewing historical data, medical researchers in California found that counties with the largest number of television sets per capita have had the lowest incidence of a serious brain disease, mosquito-borne encephalitis. The researchers have concluded that people in these counties stay indoors more and thus avoid exposure to the disease.

The researchers conclusion would be most strengthened if which of the following were true?

(A) Programs designed to control the size of disease-bearing mosquito populations have not affected the incidence of mosquito borne encephalitis.

(B) The occupations of county residents affect their risk of exposure to mosquito-borne encephalitis more than does television-watching.

(C) The incidence of mosquito-borne encephalitis in counties with the largest number of television sets per capita is likely to decrease even further.

(D) The more time people in a county spend outdoors, the greater their awareness of the dangers of mosquito-borne encephalitis.

(E) The more television sets there are per capita in a county, the more time the average county resident spends watching television.
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Re: Reviewing historical data, medical researchers in California found tha  [#permalink]

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New post 13 Nov 2018, 10:12
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Nihit wrote:

Project CR Butler:Day 7:Critical Reasoning (CR2)


For all CR butler Questions Click Here

Reviewing historical data, medical researchers in California found that counties with the largest number of television sets per capita have had the lowest incidence of a serious brain disease, mosquito-borne encephalitis. The researchers have concluded that people in these counties stay indoors more and thus avoid exposure to the disease.

The researchers conclusion would be most strengthened if which of the following were true?

(A) Programs designed to control the size of disease-bearing mosquito populations have not affected the incidence of mosquito borne encephalitis.

(B) The occupations of county residents affect their risk of exposure to mosquito-borne encephalitis more than does television-watching.

(C) The incidence of mosquito-borne encephalitis in counties with the largest number of television sets per capita is likely to decrease even further.

(D) The more time people in a county spend outdoors, the greater their awareness of the dangers of mosquito-borne encephalitis.

(E) The more television sets there are per capita in a county, the more time the average county resident spends watching television.


Counties with largest number of tv sets per capita (say, 3 TVs per person) have lowest incidence of mosquito borne Ence.

Conclusion: People in these counties stay indoors more and thus avoid exposure to the disease.

There is a gap here. How does having more TVs lead to staying indoors more? Whether I have 1 TV or 3 TVs, I can watch only 1 at a time. Just because I have 3 for myself, would I watch TV for thrice the hours? No. I just want one in my living, one in my bedroom and one in my kitchen - just to ensure that when I want to watch, I cans it anywhere and watch. More TVs means more convenience but doesn't imply more TV watching hrs.

(A) Programs designed to control the size of disease-bearing mosquito populations have not affected the incidence of mosquito borne encephalitis.

The smaller population of mosquitoes has no impact on incidence. This is irrelevant. We want to see how the "increase in the number of TVs per capita" impacts incidence.

(B) The occupations of county residents affect their risk of exposure to mosquito-borne encephalitis more than does television-watching.

This takes away some of the punch of the conclusion. That occupations affect risk of exposure more than TV. Does it make TV a stronger reason or staying indoors and avoiding mosquitoes? No. So not a strengthener.

(C) The incidence of mosquito-borne encephalitis in counties with the largest number of television sets per capita is likely to decrease even further.

Why would the incidence in these countries decrease even further? Is there another factor at play here in these countries because of which the incidence is continuing to decrease? We don't know. Not a strengthener.

(D) The more time people in a county spend outdoors, the greater their awareness of the dangers of mosquito-borne encephalitis.

This says that staying outdoors increase awareness. That would reduce incidence. This is opposite to what the conclusion is saying.

(E) The more television sets there are per capita in a county, the more time the average county resident spends watching television.

This tells us that more TVs actually does mean more TV watching hours. Well, then it makes sense that they stay more indoors and hence reduce the incidence of mosquito bites. It strengthens our conclusion.

Answer (E)
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Re: Reviewing historical data, medical researchers in California found tha  [#permalink]

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New post 27 Oct 2010, 05:37
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We have 2 facts here.
1: "County A has maximum number of TVs"
2: "Residents of county A stay indoors, thus are not exposed to the mosquito-bites".

Suppose county A is ghost haunted and the fear keeps the people indoors, in that case TV sets have nothing to do with people not getting mosquito-bites. So what we need is a way to connect the two facts; 1 and 2.
Lets analyze the options.

(A) Programs designed to control the size of disease-bearing mosquito populations have not affected the incidence of mosquito borne encephalitis.
OK, so we know the program sucked so far as the "mosquito borne encephalitis" is concerned, but what about TV sets? You are not saying anything about that. Rejected.
(B) The occupations of county residents affect their risk of exposure to mosquito-borne encephalitis more than does television-watching.
So what you are saying is that its the job that protected people and not the TV. You are actually weakening our argument. Rejected.
(C) The incidence of mosquito-borne encephalitis in counties with the largest number of television sets per capita is likely to decrease even further.
Very good, but what role are TV sets playing in that? Neither strengthen nor weaken. Rejected.
(D) The more time people in a county spend outdoors, the greater their awareness of the dangers of mosquito-borne encephalitis.
So what you are telling us is, if people stayed outdoor they'd be safer than otherwise? Weakening our argument. Rejected.
(E) The more television sets there are per capita in a county, the more time the average county resident spends watching television.
You, sir, just provided the link that we in the GMATClub were looking for. You the man!
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Re: Reviewing historical data, medical researchers in California found tha  [#permalink]

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New post 12 Nov 2018, 07:08
+1 Kudos to the posts containing explanations for all the choices.
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Re: Reviewing historical data, medical researchers in California found tha  [#permalink]

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New post 12 Nov 2018, 21:02
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We have to strengthen the conclusion:
==> People in these counties stay indoors more and thus avoid exposure to the disease.
given that:
Counties with the largest number of television sets per capita have had the lowest incidence of a serious brain disease, mosquito-borne encephalitis.

Given that:
Linkage 1: Largest number of television sets --> Lowest incidence of a serious brain disease
Author has concluded that:
Linkage 2: Stay indoors --> Avoid exposure to disease
Here, we don't have connection between the television sets and staying indoors. Hence, any answer choice that can create a linkage between Linkage 1 and 2 will be the correct answer choice.

(A) Programs designed to control the size of disease-bearing mosquito populations have not affected the incidence of mosquito borne encephalitis.
Controlling the size of populations has no bearing on television sets being responsible for staying indoors. Irrelevant
(B) The occupations of county residents affect their risk of exposure to mosquito-borne encephalitis more than does television-watching.
This choice weakens the Linkage - 1. Opposite
(C) The incidence of mosquito-borne encephalitis in counties with the largest number of television sets per capita is likely to decrease even further.
So, incidence of disease is going to decrease because of other factors. Incorrect
(D) The more time people in a county spend outdoors, the greater their awareness of the dangers of mosquito-borne encephalitis.
If staying outside increase awareness, why stay indoors. Opposite
(E) The more television sets there are per capita in a county, the more time the average county resident spends watching television.
This choice establishes the link between television sets and staying indoors. The more time resident spends watching television, the more time they'll stay indoors. Correct
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Reviewing historical data, medical researchers in California found tha  [#permalink]

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New post 13 Nov 2018, 19:16
2
VeritasKarishma wrote:
Nihit wrote:

Project CR Butler:Day 7:Critical Reasoning (CR2)


For all CR butler Questions Click Here

Reviewing historical data, medical researchers in California found that counties with the largest number of television sets per capita have had the lowest incidence of a serious brain disease, mosquito-borne encephalitis. The researchers have concluded that people in these counties stay indoors more and thus avoid exposure to the disease.

The researchers conclusion would be most strengthened if which of the following were true?

(A) Programs designed to control the size of disease-bearing mosquito populations have not affected the incidence of mosquito borne encephalitis.

(B) The occupations of county residents affect their risk of exposure to mosquito-borne encephalitis more than does television-watching.

(C) The incidence of mosquito-borne encephalitis in counties with the largest number of television sets per capita is likely to decrease even further.

(D) The more time people in a county spend outdoors, the greater their awareness of the dangers of mosquito-borne encephalitis.

(E) The more television sets there are per capita in a county, the more time the average county resident spends watching television.


Counties with largest number of tv sets per capita (say, 3 TVs per person) have lowest incidence of mosquito borne Ence.

Conclusion: People in these counties stay indoors more and thus avoid exposure to the disease.

There is a gap here. How does having more TVs lead to staying indoors more? Whether I have 1 TV or 3 TVs, I can watch only 1 at a time. Just because I have 3 for myself, would I watch TV for thrice the hours? No. I just want one in my living, one in my bedroom and one in my kitchen - just to ensure that when I want to watch, I cans it anywhere and watch. More TVs means more convenience but doesn't imply more TV watching hrs.

(A) Programs designed to control the size of disease-bearing mosquito populations have not affected the incidence of mosquito borne encephalitis.

The smaller population of mosquitoes has no impact on incidence. This is irrelevant. We want to see how the "increase in the number of TVs per capita" impacts incidence.

(B) The occupations of county residents affect their risk of exposure to mosquito-borne encephalitis more than does television-watching.

This takes away some of the punch of the conclusion. That occupations affect risk of exposure more than TV. Does it make TV a stronger reason or staying indoors and avoiding mosquitoes? No. So not a strengthener.

(C) The incidence of mosquito-borne encephalitis in counties with the largest number of television sets per capita is likely to decrease even further.

Why would the incidence in these countries decrease even further? Is there another factor at play here in these countries because of which the incidence is continuing to decrease? We don't know. Not a strengthener.

(D) The more time people in a county spend outdoors, the greater their awareness of the dangers of mosquito-borne encephalitis.

This says that staying outdoors increase awareness. That would reduce incidence. This is opposite to what the conclusion is saying.

(E) The more television sets there are per capita in a county, the more time the average county resident spends watching television.

This tells us that more TVs actually does mean more TV watching hours. Well, then it makes sense that they stay more indoors and hence reduce the incidence of mosquito bites. It strengthens our conclusion.

Answer (E)




HI VeritasKarishma


I could cut down to option A and Option E for a final pick.
I agree that option E is a better choice, but I feel Option A is also strengthing the conclusion to certain extent.
If we are saying that a certain cause has not lead to a particular effect, doesn't it strength the conclusion that Staying indoors has led to decrease in the diseases.
Basically what I am saying is they have eliminated a third cause.

Am I correct in my analysis?


Regards
Nitesh
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Re: Reviewing historical data, medical researchers in California found tha  [#permalink]

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New post 15 Nov 2018, 22:33
3
nitesh50 wrote:
VeritasKarishma wrote:
Nihit wrote:

Project CR Butler:Day 7:Critical Reasoning (CR2)


For all CR butler Questions Click Here

Reviewing historical data, medical researchers in California found that counties with the largest number of television sets per capita have had the lowest incidence of a serious brain disease, mosquito-borne encephalitis. The researchers have concluded that people in these counties stay indoors more and thus avoid exposure to the disease.

The researchers conclusion would be most strengthened if which of the following were true?

(A) Programs designed to control the size of disease-bearing mosquito populations have not affected the incidence of mosquito borne encephalitis.

(B) The occupations of county residents affect their risk of exposure to mosquito-borne encephalitis more than does television-watching.

(C) The incidence of mosquito-borne encephalitis in counties with the largest number of television sets per capita is likely to decrease even further.

(D) The more time people in a county spend outdoors, the greater their awareness of the dangers of mosquito-borne encephalitis.

(E) The more television sets there are per capita in a county, the more time the average county resident spends watching television.


Counties with largest number of tv sets per capita (say, 3 TVs per person) have lowest incidence of mosquito borne Ence.

Conclusion: People in these counties stay indoors more and thus avoid exposure to the disease.

There is a gap here. How does having more TVs lead to staying indoors more? Whether I have 1 TV or 3 TVs, I can watch only 1 at a time. Just because I have 3 for myself, would I watch TV for thrice the hours? No. I just want one in my living, one in my bedroom and one in my kitchen - just to ensure that when I want to watch, I cans it anywhere and watch. More TVs means more convenience but doesn't imply more TV watching hrs.

(A) Programs designed to control the size of disease-bearing mosquito populations have not affected the incidence of mosquito borne encephalitis.

The smaller population of mosquitoes has no impact on incidence. This is irrelevant. We want to see how the "increase in the number of TVs per capita" impacts incidence.

(B) The occupations of county residents affect their risk of exposure to mosquito-borne encephalitis more than does television-watching.

This takes away some of the punch of the conclusion. That occupations affect risk of exposure more than TV. Does it make TV a stronger reason or staying indoors and avoiding mosquitoes? No. So not a strengthener.

(C) The incidence of mosquito-borne encephalitis in counties with the largest number of television sets per capita is likely to decrease even further.

Why would the incidence in these countries decrease even further? Is there another factor at play here in these countries because of which the incidence is continuing to decrease? We don't know. Not a strengthener.

(D) The more time people in a county spend outdoors, the greater their awareness of the dangers of mosquito-borne encephalitis.

This says that staying outdoors increase awareness. That would reduce incidence. This is opposite to what the conclusion is saying.

(E) The more television sets there are per capita in a county, the more time the average county resident spends watching television.

This tells us that more TVs actually does mean more TV watching hours. Well, then it makes sense that they stay more indoors and hence reduce the incidence of mosquito bites. It strengthens our conclusion.

Answer (E)




HI VeritasKarishma


I could cut down to option A and Option E for a final pick.
I agree that option E is a better choice, but I feel Option A is also strengthing the conclusion to certain extent.
If we are saying that a certain cause has not lead to a particular effect, doesn't it strength the conclusion that Staying indoors has led to decrease in the diseases.
Basically what I am saying is they have eliminated a third cause.

Am I correct in my analysis?


Regards
Nitesh


Nitesh, I understand what you are saying but note that our argument talks about "incidence rate in counties with more TVs" vs "incidence rate in counties with fewer TVs". Why is the incidence rate lower in counties with fewer TVs?

Option (A) talks about a program run (in particular counties or all counties, we don't know) to control mosquito population. We are also told that this program failed. Does this knowledge impact our argument at all? No. We want to find why the incidence is low in more TVs counties than in fewer TVs counties. Is it really because people spend more time watching TV indoors in these counties? Option (E) gives us this information.

In some cases, eliminating a cause could strengthen causality between two other elements. Think about it - if the outcome could be affected by a limited number of possible causes and you are flipping between two, removing one makes it more likely for the other to happen. But eliminating one factor in a situation that could be caused by many factors doesn't add much to the strength of another factor. What one needs to do in each case is a matter of judgement but in every GMAT question, it will be clear what is acceptable and what is not. There will be pressing reasons to accept/eliminate an option. If you feel a bit lost sometimes, try evaluating from the standpoint of a debate. You have your side to present. When the opponent presents a point, does it weaken your situation or not? Or when you present an additional point, does it strengthen your situation?
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Re: Reviewing historical data, medical researchers in California found tha  [#permalink]

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New post 01 Jan 2019, 02:26
VeritasKarishma wrote:
Nihit wrote:

Project CR Butler:Day 7:Critical Reasoning (CR2)


For all CR butler Questions Click Here

Reviewing historical data, medical researchers in California found that counties with the largest number of television sets per capita have had the lowest incidence of a serious brain disease, mosquito-borne encephalitis. The researchers have concluded that people in these counties stay indoors more and thus avoid exposure to the disease.

The researchers conclusion would be most strengthened if which of the following were true?

(A) Programs designed to control the size of disease-bearing mosquito populations have not affected the incidence of mosquito borne encephalitis.

(B) The occupations of county residents affect their risk of exposure to mosquito-borne encephalitis more than does television-watching.

(C) The incidence of mosquito-borne encephalitis in counties with the largest number of television sets per capita is likely to decrease even further.

(D) The more time people in a county spend outdoors, the greater their awareness of the dangers of mosquito-borne encephalitis.

(E) The more television sets there are per capita in a county, the more time the average county resident spends watching television.


Counties with largest number of tv sets per capita (say, 3 TVs per person) have lowest incidence of mosquito borne Ence.

Conclusion: People in these counties stay indoors more and thus avoid exposure to the disease.

There is a gap here. How does having more TVs lead to staying indoors more? Whether I have 1 TV or 3 TVs, I can watch only 1 at a time. Just because I have 3 for myself, would I watch TV for thrice the hours? No. I just want one in my living, one in my bedroom and one in my kitchen - just to ensure that when I want to watch, I cans it anywhere and watch. More TVs means more convenience but doesn't imply more TV watching hrs.

(A) Programs designed to control the size of disease-bearing mosquito populations have not affected the incidence of mosquito borne encephalitis.

The smaller population of mosquitoes has no impact on incidence. This is irrelevant. We want to see how the "increase in the number of TVs per capita" impacts incidence.

(B) The occupations of county residents affect their risk of exposure to mosquito-borne encephalitis more than does television-watching.

This takes away some of the punch of the conclusion. That occupations affect risk of exposure more than TV. Does it make TV a stronger reason or staying indoors and avoiding mosquitoes? No. So not a strengthener.

(C) The incidence of mosquito-borne encephalitis in counties with the largest number of television sets per capita is likely to decrease even further.

Why would the incidence in these countries decrease even further? Is there another factor at play here in these countries because of which the incidence is continuing to decrease? We don't know. Not a strengthener.

(D) The more time people in a county spend outdoors, the greater their awareness of the dangers of mosquito-borne encephalitis.

This says that staying outdoors increase awareness. That would reduce incidence. This is opposite to what the conclusion is saying.

(E) The more television sets there are per capita in a county, the more time the average county resident spends watching television.

This tells us that more TVs actually does mean more TV watching hours. Well, then it makes sense that they stay more indoors and hence reduce the incidence of mosquito bites. It strengthens our conclusion.

Answer (E)


Quote:
I chose ans A because it rules out the possibility of another cause to have the same effect. That is, program for reducing the number of mosquito population has also not reduced the attacks. Then, staying indoors only helped to avoid the disease.


Note that in our argument we are comparing the incidence of Ence in some specific counties (with max per capita no of TVs) to the incidence in other counties.
Option (A) talks about such programs in general. If they were implemented across counties and had no impact, it doesn't help in comparing A counties with B counties and establishing that more TVs is the cause of lower incidence of Ence in these counties. Hence, option (A) is irrelevant to our argument.
Even if we tried to implement the programs in only specific counties, it makes little sense to do it in those with the max per capita no of TVs. The option would not be very sensible in that case.
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Re: Reviewing historical data, medical researchers in California found tha   [#permalink] 01 Jan 2019, 02:26
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