In short, yes, I do think there will be fewer seats for those of us applying for the Class of 2015 this year.
First, the Class of 2014 is overenrolled, so to compensate, I expect they'll want a smaller Class of 2015 to begin with. Second, four people accepted the $20K deferral and rumor has it that others accepted non-scholarship deferrals (see comments of P&Q article). Third, I'm sure MIT will have a higher estimated Yield based on last year.
In my estimation, the accpetance rate will drop from 14.4% for the Class of 2014 to 13.3% for the Class of 2015. Here's how I calculated those figures:
Class of 2014:-4,133 Applicants (source 1)
-413 Enrolled (source 1)
-67% Class of 2012 Yield (source 2)
-400 Enrollment Target (assumption)
-597 Estimated Acceptances (400 Enrollment Target / 67% Yield)
-14.4% Estimated Acceptance Rate (597 Est. Accepts / 4,133 Applicants)
-69% Class of 2014 Yield (413 Enrolled / 597 Est. Accepts)
Class of 2015:-4,133 Applicants (assumes it will hold constant vs. last year)
-4 $20K Deferrals (source 1)
-6 No Scholarship Deferrals (assumption based on source 1 comments)
-800 Total FT MBA Program Enrollment Target (assumption)
-409 Class of 2014 (source 1 - 4 $20k deferrals)
-391 Class of 2015 Enrollment Target (800 total - 409 Class of 2014, assumption)
-381 Class of 2015 Seats Available (391 target - 10 deferrals)
-69% Class of 2014 Yield (see above)
-551 Class of 2015 Acceptances (381 Class of 2015 Seats / 69% Yield)
-13.3% Estimated Acceptance Rate (551 Class of 2015 Accepts / 4,133 Applicants)
Source 1:
https://poetsandquants.com/2012/09/26/sl ... o-go-away/Source 2:
https://www.businessweek.com/bschools/ra ... sloan.htmlLet me know what you all think!
Thank you,
OptimisticApplicant