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ChiranjeevSingh
Introduction: This is an amazing question with probably the lowest accuracy among all official CR questions. Only 25% of people who attempt this question on GMAT Club get it right, and given my experience discussing this question with my students, I believe that even among people who get this question right, most don’t get it right for the right reasons. Given this background, I’ll probably err on the side of explaining more rather than explaining less in the solution below.

The Story

Smithtown University’s fund-raisers succeeded in getting donations from 80 percent of the potential donors they contacted. - STU’s FRs got donations from 80% of the potential donors they contacted i.e. for every 100 people they contacted, they got donations from 80 people.

This success rate, exceptionally high for university fund-raisers, does not indicate that they were doing a good job. - The non-essential modifier “exceptionally high for university fund-raisers” says that the 80% success rate is very very high for university FRs (That means normally, FRs have a much lower success rate).

This high success rate doesn’t mean that FRs were doing a good job. (Interesting! How can such a high success rate not mean a good job?)

On the contrary, since the people most likely to donate are those who have donated in the past, good fund-raisers constantly try less-likely prospects in an effort to expand the donor base. - The people most likely to donate are the people who have donated in the past. (That looks reasonable. Once a person makes a donation to a university, he may be more willing to donate again since he sees value in donating money to the university)

Since old donors have a high propensity to donate again, good FRs constantly try less-likely prospects (i.e. new donors) to expand the donor base.

(This statement makes sense, but how is it connected with the previous statement? The previous statement said that a high success rate indicates STU’s FRs didn’t do a good job, and this statement says good FRs constantly try less probable prospects. Ohh! The author is assuming that a high success rate of STU’s FRs is due to the reason that they didn’t contact the less-likely prospects i.e. new donors. The author thinks that STU’s FRs got a high success rate because they kept on contacting the old donors, who were very likely to donate.)

(I observe that many people don’t pause to connect a statement back to the previous statement. They keep on reading, hoping things will automatically connect. This works most of the time since we can understand most of the things naturally. However, things that we can’t understand ‘naturally’ need to be understood deliberately. So, you need to pay attention to whether you understand the relationship between a statement and its previous one. If you don’t, take a pause and try to understand. There’s no point rushing to get a question wrong!)

The high success rate shows insufficient canvassing effort. - This statement flows from the previous statement. In other words, this statement is supported by the previous statement. And this statement supports the second statement.

Why a high success rate doesn’t indicate that STU’s FRs were doing a good job? Because this high success rate shows insufficient canvassing effort.

GIST: The high success rate doesn’t indicate that STU’s FRs were doing a good job. Why? Because the high success rate shows insufficient canvassing effort. Why? Because good FRs constantly try less probable prospects.

The Gap

Since there are two levels of ‘whys’, there are two jumps/gaps in the argument:

1. From “Good FRs constantly try less probable prospects” to “The high success rate shows insufficient canvassing effort

This gap is so subtle that it doesn’t look like a gap. It seems that one can infer from a high success rate of an FR that he must have made insufficient canvassing effort. However, there are two levels of gaps here:

(1) Are these STU FR’s average guys? What if these guys are overly adept at converting potential donors? In such a case, they might have a high success rate even though they may have contacted a lot of new donors. In such a case, their high success rate will not indicate that they did not contact new donors. Probably, they contacted a lot of new donors and were talented enough to convert a very high percentage of them.

(2) Let’s accept that they didn’t contact a lot of new donors. Can we now say that their high success rate shows insufficient canvassing effort? Not necessarily. What if these people deliberately contacted a smaller set of new donors but made a lot more effort per donor to convert the donor. That’s why they had a high success rate. In such a case, they contacted fewer donors but made more effort per donor. So, we won’t be able to say that their high success rate shows insufficient canvassing effort.

2. From “The high success rate shows insufficient canvassing effort” to “The high success rate doesn’t indicate that STU’s FRs were doing a good job

Is there a jump here? Is it possible that even though the high success rate shows insufficient canvassing effort, we still can’t say that the high success rate doesn’t indicate that STU’s FR’s were doing a good job?

It is possible if the job of FRs includes more than just “canvassing”. Let’s say that the job of FRs also includes preparing canvassing material and shortlisting probable new donors. In such a case, FRs may not have made sufficient canvassing effort, but if they did a lot of good work in preparing canvassing material or shortlisting new donors, we can’t say that they did not do a good job! Right?

The Goal

We are looking for an option that most strengthens the argument. Any option that addresses the gaps identified above can be a valid strengthener.

The Evaluation

(A) Correct. The sentence compares the success rate of STU’s FRs and of FRs from other universities.* Success rate w.r.t. what? W.r.t. converting new donors. The sentence says that STU’s FRs had about the same success rate as FRs from other universities.

Oh! So, these STU guys are just like others; these people are not super-talented. Now, if we go back to the first gap identified above, we can see that this option eliminates a loophole in the argument. If STU FRs are just like others and thus are not overly talented, then their high (overall) success rate is likely due to the fact that they mainly contacted old donors and not the new donors and thus made insufficient canvassing effort.

*If you have trouble understanding this statement, I’ve shared a video at the end of this solution in which I share how I read options A, B, and C.

(B) Incorrect. This option compares the average size of the donations to STU from two kinds of donors:

1. New donors whom STU’s FRs contacted
2. Old donors

The option says that the average size of the donation from the first kind of donors was greater than the average size of the donations from the old donors.

Many people reject this option, saying that the argument doesn’t talk about the average size of donations and that thus this option is out of scope. The logic is completely wrong since a strengthener always provides new information. The reason why people don’t realize the incorrectness of this logic is that they apply this logic inconsistently. If they applied this logic consistently on every option, they’d realize that many correct options can also be rejected for this reason. Rather, even option A can be rejected on the grounds that the argument nowhere talks about fundraisers from other universities.

This option is a mild weakener since if the new donors donated a lot of money, then probably STU FRs did a good job. Probably, FRs spent more effort per donor to extract more money out of every donor. In such a case, they probably made sufficient canvassing effort – not in terms of contacting a lot of new donors but in terms of extracting more money from every new donor.

A bit bigger nuance now. The reason I say that this option is a ‘mild’ weakener is that the comparison presented in this option could be a constant factor. I mean to say that it is entirely possible that new donors always donate, on average, more than old donors. It is possible that every new donor donates a large amount for the first time and then donate a small amount every year. In such a case, the information presented in option B doesn’t tell us anything special about STU’s FRs.

(C) Incorrect. More than 60% of people mark this option on GMAT Club! This option says that most of the donations to STU from old donors came without FRs contacting those donors. So, these old donors donated on their own without any contact from FRs.

Many people think that this option means that most of the donations to STU came without any contact from FRs. That means that these FRs are useless. They are getting less than 50% of the donations; the majority of the donations are coming on their own. Well, these people miss the modifier ‘who had previously donated to it’. Thus, this option is not talking about most of the donations; it’s talking about most of the donations from old donors.

This option can also be a mild weakener since it can be taken to indicate that STU’s FRs did not contact many old donors. In such a case, they likely contacted more new donors. Thus, the argument gets weakened.

Again, I say that this is a ‘mild’ weakener since, like option B, this option can also be a constant factor. It is entirely possible that every year, the majority of donations from old donors come without any canvassing. In such a case, this option doesn’t tell us anything special about STU’s FRs.

(D) Incorrect. This option says that the majority of the donations to STU came from new donors. This option, thus, weakens the argument.

However, this option also suffers from the possibility that this could also be a constant factor. It is possible that every year, 60% of the donations come from new donors. So, getting a majority of the donations from new donors is nothing special. A good weakener would be an option that compares the performance of FRs this year with the general performance of FRs. For example:

A greater than usual proportion of the donations that fund-raisers succeeded in getting for Smithtown University this year were from donors who had never given to the university before.

(E) Incorrect. This option says that most of the money raised by STU’s FRs came from new donors. This option, thus, weakens the argument.

However, this option also suffers from the possibility that this could also be a constant factor. It is possible that every year, 60% of the raised money comes from new donors. So, getting most of the money from new donors is nothing special. A good weakener would be an option that compares the performance of FRs this year with the general performance of FRs. For example:

A greater than usual proportion of the money raised by Smithtown University’s fund-raisers came from donors who had never given to the university before.

If you have any doubts regarding any part of this solution, please feel free to ask.

Here’s the video in which I explain how to understand options A, B, and C:


- CJ

PS: This solution was originally posted on this link.
­Hi  ChiranjeevSingh
I understand that rest four of the options somehow weakens the argument, but i still don't understand how (A) supports the argument:

Conclusion:
This success rate(80), exceptionally high for university fund-raisers, is an eyewash
Premise: since the people most likely to donate are those who have donated in the past, good fund-raisers constantly try less-likely prospects in an effort to expand the donor base.

So argument seems to go from a very general statement to a specific case. 

(A) says that in terms of new donor Smithtown is as good as any others: It can mean that all are doing good OR all are doing bad ''in terms of new donors''

So this choice can both strengthen OR weaken the argument

So, if all are doing good, 80% can still indicate that Smithtown is doing good
If all are doing bad, 80% won't indicate that Smithtown is doing good.







 
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drdas
Smithtown University’s fund-raisers succeeded in getting donations from 80 percent of the potential donors they contacted. This success rate, exceptionally high for university fund-raisers, does not indicate that they were doing a good job. On the contrary, since the people most likely to donate are those who have donated in the past, good fund-raisers constantly try less-likely prospects in an effort to expand the donor base. The high success rate shows insufficient canvassing effort.

Which of the following, if true, provides more support for the argument?


(A) Smithtown University’s fund-raisers were successful in their contacts with potential donors who had never given before about as frequently as were fund-raisers for other universities in their contacts with such people.

(B) This year the average size of the donations to Smithtown University from new donors when the university’s fund-raisers had contacted was larger than the average size of donations from donors who had given to the university before.

(C) This year most of the donations that came to Smithtown University from people who had previously donated to it were made without the university’s fund-raisers having made any contact with the donors.

(D) The majority of the donations that fund-raisers succeeded in getting for Smithtown University this year were from donors who had never given to the university before.

(E) More than half of the money raised by Smithtown University’s fund-raisers came from donors who had never previously donated to the university.



Option C is out of scope: refer other forums : https://www.manhattangmat.com/forums/cr ... t8037.html
­
Weighted Averages helps us understand this difficult question. Here is a video solution: 


 
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This suggests that Smithtown’s fund-raisers are average at attracting new donors, not exceptional. If the fund-raisers were putting significant effort into expanding the donor base, we might expect a higher success rate among new donors. The fact that they are only as successful as others implies that the high overall success rate is likely due to an over-reliance on past donors.
This supports the argument by suggesting the fund-raisers are not prioritizing expanding the donor base.
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Hi GMATNinja - (A) is telling us that the Smithtown fund-raisers were no better than those of other universities, understood till here but due to language of the option : (A) Smithtown University’s fund-raisers were successful in their contacts with potential donors who had never given before, I'm unable to understand how do we figure all the universities were not doing a good job? I understand this question has been answered by you before but I still don't fully get it
GMATNinja
On strengthen, weaken, and assumption questions, I generally start with the conclusion, stated exactly in the passage’s own words. In this case, the conclusion is basically the second and fourth sentences of the paragraph:



Great, and what’s the evidence to support this conclusion? Well, we know that fund-raisers have succeeded in getting donations from 80% of the potential donors they contacted, and “since the people most likely to donate are those who have donated in the past, good fund-raisers constantly try less-likely prospects in an effort to expand the donor base.”

Bottom line: the argument is accusing Smithtown’s fund-raisers of being lousy, lazy fundraisers who just keep contacting people who have donated in the past. The correct answer will support the conclusion that the fund-raisers were not “doing a good job” and that “the high success rate shows insufficient canvassing effort.”

On to the answer choices:



This looks pretty good! Again: we’re trying to find support for the idea that the fund-raisers were not “doing a good job” and that “the high success rate shows insufficient canvassing effort.”

(A) is telling us that the Smithtown fund-raisers were no better than those of other universities – so that supports the idea that they were not necessarily “doing a good job.” Plus, if Smithtown’s fund-raisers were just as unsuccessful with potential new donors as other universities, then it must be the case that the “exceptionally high” 80% success rate came from targeting previous donors.

It’s hard to imagine that we’ll beat (A), but we always want to find four wrong answers –- so let’s go through the rest of them:



Nope. If this is true, perhaps the fund-raisers deserve a cookie, but it’s not terribly relevant to the argument. We’re trying to support the idea that “the high success rate shows insufficient canvassing effort.” The SIZE of donations from new donors tells us nothing about canvassing effort.



This is pretty much irrelevant to the conclusion. It just tells us that a lot of people donated without being contacted. This doesn’t tell us anything about the fund-raisers’ canvassing efforts with new donors, or whether they were “doing a good job” in general.


Nope. This would definitely weaken the argument. If this is true, then the fund-raisers must have contacted a lot of new potential donors, with a high degree of success.


If anything, this one weakens the argument. If (E) is true, it would be awfully hard to argue that the fundraisers were not “doing a good job” with new donors.

So (A) is our winner!
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AditiDeokar
Hi GMATNinja - (A) is telling us that the Smithtown fund-raisers were no better than those of other universities, understood till here but due to language of the option : (A) Smithtown University’s fund-raisers were successful in their contacts with potential donors who had never given before, I'm unable to understand how do we figure all the universities were not doing a good job? I understand this question has been answered by you before but I still don't fully get it
Notice that choice (A) only talks about a very specific category of donors: donors who had never given before (first-time donors). According to (A), if we ONLY look at first-time donors, the success rate of the Smithtown University fund-raisers was about equal to the success rate of other universities' fund-raisers.

Now consider what we know from the passage:
Quote:
Smithtown University’s fund-raisers succeeded in getting donations from 80 percent of the potential donors they contacted. This success rate, exceptionally high for university fund-raisers...
We're told that Smithtown's OVERALL success rate was exceptionally high (in other words, higher than the overall success rate for other universities). This overall rate includes both (1) first-time donors and (2) everybody else (repeat donors).

If Smithtown's success rate with group 1 (first-time donors) was average and their OVERALL success rate was exceptionally high, then their overall success rate was likely heavily influenced by their success rate with group 2 (repeat donors, who are more likely to donate). This suggests that Smithtown contacted a large proportion of repeat donors instead of focusing on less-likely prospects (first time donors) in an effort to expand the donor base.

I hope that helps!
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