Studies suggest that an average coffee drinkers consumption of coffee

Question

The following appeared as part of the business plan of an investment and financial consulting firm:
“Studies suggest that an average coffee drinker’s consumption of coffee increases with age, from age 10 through age 60. Even after age 60, coffee consumption remains high. The average cola drinker’s consumption of cola, however, declines with increasing age. Both of these trends have remained stable for the past 40 years. Given that the number of older adults will significantly increase as the population ages over the next 20 years, it follows that the demand for coffee will increase and the demand for cola will decrease during this period. We should, therefore, consider transferring our investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee.”

Your Answer:
The business plan of an investment and financial consulting firm recommends transferring investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee. The author recommends this based on a study that suggests shift in average coffee drinker's and average cola drinker's consumption with age. The author then links this consumption trend with the demographic trend in his region and claims that the demand for coffee will increase and demand for cola will decrease. Thus leading to the recommendation. The author's reasoning, however, seems to be based on flawed reasoning and insufficient evidence. The author links an average with absolute numbers and fails to consider other factors that warrant a transfer of investment. Let us now analyse author's flawed reasoning.

Firstly, The author assumes that a decrease in coffee consumption of an average coffee drinker would mean less number of people drinking coffee and vice versa for cola. The author fails to realize that even though an average coffee drinkers consumption would be reduced from 10 cups to 2 cups, the actual number of people drinking coffee , therefore the total consumption of coffee, could still be more than consumption of cola, although the demand for cola will increase. If this would be the case, transfer of investments to Cola Loca could lead to a loss as Cola Loca's sales would be less than Early bird coffee. However, The author could, in order to strengthen his argument, provide subsequent evidence that shows that the actual sale of coffee along with number of people who drink it would be reduced in comparison to Cola drinking population and Cola's sale.

Secondly, The author assumes that a higher sale would mean a higher profit and thus the only value that needs to be considered for transfer of investments. Even if Cola Loca is selling more than Early Bird coffee as assumes by author, It might be possible that the expense of manufacturing Cola is higher than expensnse of manufacturing Coffee. It could be possible that Cola Loca ,in reality, is earning less profits due to its higher manufacturing costs than Early bird coffee. It could also be possible that Cola Loca has a small market share when compared to Early bird coffee, making a smaller share of higher demand come to Cola Loca's share. Thus, the Consulting firms investments could earn higher profits in an investment in Early bird coffee in comparison with an investment in Cola Loca. However, The author could, in order to strengthen his argument, provide substantial evidence that shows higher profits and higher market share for Cola Loca when compared to Early Bird coffee.

Therefore, The author's recommendation of transferring investments from Early bird coffee to Cola Loca seems flawed. The author links average consumption figures with total sales and fails to consider alternative factors that must be considered while transferring investments. The author could provide further evidence , in order to strengthen his argument, that links higher average consumption to higher sales and that negates alternative factors which could affect the decision of transferring investments.

Sajjad1994 · Answer

AWA Score: 5.5 out of 6

Coherence and connectivity: 5/5
This rating corresponds to the flow of ideas and expressions from one paragraph to another. The effective use of connectives and coherence of assertive language in arguing for/against the argument is analyzed. This is deemed as one of the most important parameters.

Paragraph structure and formation: 5/5
The structure and division of the attempt into appropriate paragraphs are evaluated. To score well on this parameter, it is important to organize the attempt into paragraphs. Preferable to follow the convention of leaving a line blank at the end of each paragraph, to make the software aware of the structure of the essay.

Vocabulary and word expression: 3/5
This parameter rates the submitted essay on the range of relevant vocabulary possessed by the candidate basis the word and expression usage. There are no extra- points for bombastic word usage. Simple is the best form of suave!

NidhiR · Answer

dushyantbisht 
 Sajjad1994

In paragraph two, it has been written in the Essay that :-

'The author assumes that a decrease in coffee consumption of an average coffee drinker would mean less number of people drinking coffee and vice versa for cola.'

However, the stimulus never says so. On the contrary, it highlights that ;-

'..an average coffee drinker’s consumption of coffee increases with age, from age 10 through age 60. Even after age 60, coffee consumption remains high. The average cola drinker’s consumption of cola, however, declines with increasing age.'

Here, the stimulus talks about transferring investments from Cola Loca drink to Early Bird cofee, and not the other way round..!!

PRamesh2008 · Answer

dushyantbisht

The essay is well compiled, and addresses all aspects of the argument in the stimulus in a comprehensive manner..Thanks for posting..

Sajjad1994

Thanks for providing an insight into the invigilator's viewpoint..

dushyantbisht · Answer

Hello Nidhi NidhiR Yes. That is a mistake I have committed. Need to work better with logging down all info prior writing the essay. Hooefully wont do something of this sort in actual test.

Thanks. Posted from my mobile device

gmattakeer749404 · Answer

Please can someone review my AWA, thanks!

Essay Response

The argument claims that the investment and financial consulting firm should consider transferring its investments in Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee because it predicts the demand for coffee will increase and that the demand for cola will decrease over the next 20 years. Expressed in this way, the argument suffers serious flaws, namely, it omits crucial information without which the argument cannot be sustained. Consequently, the argument is poorly reasoned and unconvincing.

Firstly, the argument presupposes that the demand for cola will decrease and the demand for coffee will increase since there will be an increase in the number of older adults over the next 20 years. This assumption is dubious, it neglects the fact that the number of younger people will also increase. Moreover, the presumption that the demand for coffee will increase is unsupported by any concrete evidence. The argument would have been substantially improved if this assertion had been corroborated by compelling empirical data, such as the expected percentage changes in demand for both coffee and cola and the expected population numbers for younger and older people in 20 years.

Secondly, the argument erroneously equates demand with the financial success of investments. Once again, the assumption that increasing demand for coffee will lead to investments in Early Bird Coffee to perform better than investments in Cola Loca is ill-founded. Such a claim is far from axiomatic, there are internal factors in which ensure a company’s financial success and we cannot be certain that, even if the argument’s demand prediction is true, Early Bird Coffee will be able to take advantage of this trend. Further, the argument fails to demonstrate this purported equivalence through logic or statistical proof. Accordingly, the equation of the increasing demand for coffee and the success of Early Bird Coffee is vulnerable to a plethora of counterexamples. For instance, Early Bird Coffee’s retail locations, if any, could be in areas with a high proportion of young people. Had the argument provided convincing evidence that Early Bird Coffee is well-prepared to take advantage of this supposed increase in the demand for coffee, the conclusion that the firm should transfer its investments to Early Bird Coffee would have been more convincing.

Finally, the argument neglects to answer certain questions that are critical to its evaluation. For example, even though trends in average consumption have remained stable for the past 40 years, can we affirmatively conclude that they will remain the same over the next few decades? Are these global trends relevant to the country of operation for Early Bird Coffee and Cola Loca? Without convincing answers to these queries, the intermediate conclusion that the demand for cola will decrease and the demand for coffee will increase is extremely tenuous.

In conclusion, the argument is logically unsound and largely conjectural. Had it included information that substantiated the above-mentioned assumptions and answered the questions posed in the previous paragraphs, the argument would have been far more persuasive. Without such information, the conclusion that the firm should transfer its investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee is unwarranted.

Sajjad1994 · Answer

AWA Score: 6 out of 6

Coherence and connectivity: 5.5/6

The essay demonstrates a strong sense of coherence and connectivity throughout. The argument is presented in a clear and organized manner, with each paragraph building upon the previous one. The writer effectively uses transition words and phrases to link ideas and support the flow of the essay. The only minor issue is that there are a few instances where the writer repeats themselves or uses redundant phrases, but this does not significantly impact the overall coherence and connectivity of the essay.

Anatomy: 6/6

The essay includes all the necessary components of a well-structured analytical essay. It has a clear introduction that provides a thesis statement and previews the main points of the essay. The body of the essay is comprised of three paragraphs that each address a separate flaw in the argument, and the essay concludes by summarizing these flaws and reiterating the thesis. The writer effectively balances the presentation of evidence and analysis throughout the essay.

Paragraph structure and formation: 6/6

Each paragraph in the essay follows a clear and concise structure. The writer begins by introducing the flaw or issue they will address in that paragraph, then provides evidence to support their argument, and concludes by tying the evidence back to the thesis statement. The writer also effectively uses topic sentences and transitional phrases to guide the reader through each paragraph.

Language and Grammar: 6/6

The essay is well-written and free from grammatical errors. The writer uses precise and appropriate language throughout the essay and employs a variety of sentence structures to keep the writing engaging. The essay demonstrates a strong command of English grammar and vocabulary.

Vocabulary and word expression: 6/6

The writer demonstrates a strong command of vocabulary and effectively uses a variety of words and phrases to convey their ideas. The essay uses specialized vocabulary related to finance and investments appropriately and effectively. The writer also uses metaphors and analogies to illustrate their points and make the writing more engaging. Overall, the vocabulary and word expression in the essay are excellent.

Studies suggest that an average coffee drinkers consumption of coffee

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