The average hourly wage of television assemblers in Vernland has long been significantly lower than that in neighboring Borodia. Since Borodia dropped all tariffs on Vernlandian televisions three years ago, the number of televisions sold annually in Borodia has not changed. However, recent statistics show a drop in the number of television assemblers in Borodia. Therefore, updated trade statistics will probably indicate that the number of televisions Borodia imports annually from Vernland has increased.
(1)
The average hourly wage of television assemblers in
Vernland has long been significantly
lower than that in neighboring
Borodia.
(2) Since
Borodia dropped all tariffs on Vernlandian televisions three years ago,
the number of televisions sold annually in Borodia has not changed.
(3) However, recent statistics show a
drop in the number of television assemblers in Borodia.
(4*) Assumption missing
_____________
(5) Therefore, updated trade statistics will probably indicate that the number of televisions Borodia imports annually from Vernland has increased.
There is a lot going on in this argument. From average hourly rate to # of TVs sold & imported to # of assemblers and these make this argument difficult.
There are 3 elements in this argument
1- Hourly Wage (available in premise 1)
2- # of televisions sold/imported (available in premise 2 & conclusion)
3- # of assemblers (available in premise 3)
How did the author conclude that Borodia will import Tvs in the next futures?
1- Borodia labor cost is expensive
2- Borodia sells same number of TVs
3- No tariffs on imports
4- Labor size decreased
5- Hurray, definitely Borodia will import TVs next year to compensate for the loss of workers. (conclusion)
It seems like a good argument, although it is not prone to weaknesses. Prethinking the answer here is difficult, you can't simply predict what the assumption is. There are many assumptions that could be made:
1- Brodia impose new laws that prohibit importing from Verland
2- Brodia has advanced technology that allows manufacturing at less costs and more effiency
3- Verland inceases their prices so much
4- Brodia will import from other countries
etc
There are two kinds of assumptions (from Critical Reasoning Bible book)
1- Supporter Assumption: closes the gaps by linking elements together and can be sometimes prethinked
2- Defender Assumption: protects the argument by eliminating ideas that could weaken the argument.
Which of the following is an assumption on which the argument depends?
(A) The number of television assemblers in Vernland has increased by at least as much as the number of television assemblers in Borodia has decreased.
This strengthen the conclusion that Verland has more labor than Borodia which may lead to cheaper prices and thus more exports to Borodia
(B) Televisions assembled in Vernland have features that televisions assembled in Borodia do not have.
Features are out of scope and irrelevant to the conclusion.
(C) The average number of hours it takes a Borodian television assembler to assemble a television has not decreased significantly during the past three years.
This looks like a new element added to the argument. A new information. If we put this back into (4*) at the beginning of this post, this actually defends the argument and can safely allow the author to conclude that there will be imports. Let's see:
How did the author conclude that Borodia will import Tvs in the next futures?
1- Borodia labor cost is expensive
2- Borodia sells same number of TVs
3- No tariffs on imports
4- Labor size decreased in Borodia
5 (assumption)- Time to assemble a TV in Borodia stays the same
____
5- Hurray, definitely Borodia will import TVs next year to compensate for the loss of workers. (conclusion)
In other words, if Borodia takes 1% the time it takes Verland to manufacture 1 Tv, then this could lead to efficient manufacturing in terms of time and costs, and there will be no need to import.
(D) The number of televisions assembled annually in Vernland has increased significantly during the past three years.
This also stregthen the argument. More Tvs in Verland could mean more exports to Borodia
(E) The difference between the hourly wage of television assemblers in Vernland and the hourly wage of television assemblers in Borodia is likely to decrease in the next few years.
If the wage difference is likely to decrease, then either Verland hours wage will increase OR Borodian hourly wage will decrease. Either way, this looks promising to Borodia and may not require them to import as prices of TVs may be similar.
If we negate this choice, "The difference will likely increase or stay the same" then this has no effect on the conclusion that Borodia is going to import from Verland