Official Explanation:
The Belton Orchestra, which typically performs in a large concert hall, plans to increase the orchestra’s profits by adding music from successful films and arrangements of well-known pop songs to its concert programs. The orchestra’s president has stated that “we need to bring in a larger, younger, and more diverse audience if we want to be around for the next fifty years.” By targeting people who don’t typically go to concert halls, the orchestra hopes to get these individuals interested in attending even more traditional concerts.
Which of the following would, if true, most strengthen the likelihood that the president's plan will achieve its goal?
A. There has been a nationwide decrease in attendance at symphony orchestra concerts over the last year.
B. The average number of increased concertgoers who attend the Belton Orchestra’s concerts will not be offset by a decrease in attendance by those who prefer the more traditional concerts.
C. About half of the number of younger people who attend most orchestra concerts are themselves musicians.
D. The amount of disposable income available to younger and more diverse individuals who live within 20 miles of the concert hall that the Belton Orchestra uses has increased in recent years.
E. A majority of the members of the Belton Orchestra have expressed enthusiasm for playing the newer works that the president has suggested.
Question Type: Strengthen
Boil It Down: The plan to bring in new faces through popular music will yield greater profits. Therefore, the plan should be adopted to ensure the orchestra lives on well into the future.
Goal: Find the option that best strengthens the argument to play more modern music.
Analysis:
This argument has an unstated assumption (P3). By identifying the assumption, we can identify a possible weak point which the correct answer choice can shore up. The plan assumes that the more new people that will attend will yield greater profits. That might seem a reasonable assumption. Given that this is a strengthener, we will look for ways in which that assumption can be challenged. In this case, we will look for objections to the assumption. The correct answer choice will shoot down this objection, thereby strengthening the argument.
Argument structure:
(P) = Premise/Evidence/Support (C) = Conclusion
P1: Belton Orchestra seeks to increase profits
P2: A new plan targeting people who do not usually attend the orchestra by using popular music will bring in new people
(P3: Assumption: The more new people that attend, the greater the profits)
C: The new plan should be adopted
For this question, an objection would be that a mere increase of new people will not necessarily mean greater profits. If the new music drives away those who attended for the traditional music, then the plan may be counterproductive. If I prefer Bach and Beethoven, I am not going to attend a concert that plays Taylor Swift and Justin Bieber music. In other words, the plan might yield a net loss in attendees, yielding a net loss in profits. The correct answer will show that this objection does not apply to the scenario.
An alternate way of thinking about this question is to recognize that the argument tries to link new faces i.e. the new plan with greater profits. Obviously, the two concepts are not the same, and so there is a gap between the information in the premises and in the conclusion. The correct answer will link these two concepts. Incorrect answers will fail to address one or both of these concepts, thereby being irrelevant.
A. There has been a nationwide decrease in attendance at symphony orchestra concerts over the last year.
Incorrect. We are interested in what is happening to Belton Orchestra, not what is occurring nationwide. Furthermore, this answer choice does not address how the new plan will help Belton’s profits. Therefore, answer choice A is irrelevant.
B. The average number of increased concertgoers who attend the Belton Orchestra’s concerts will not be offset by a decrease in attendance by those who prefer the more traditional concerts.
Correct. This answer choice responds to or shoots down the possible objection stated in the argument analysis above. The concern was that although the plan might attract new attendees, it will yield a net loss in attendees who prefer traditional music. Answer choice B says that this objection does not apply. By shooting down the objection, the argument is strengthened.
C. About half of the number of younger people who attend most orchestra concerts are themselves musicians.
Incorrect. The correct answer choice needs to link the concepts in the premises (plan to bring in new faces) to the conclusion (increase in profits). This answer choice does not address either concept. The numbers of younger people who attend concerts and who are musicians tells us nothing about whether the plan will yield greater profits. Therefore, answer choice C is irrelevant.
D. The amount of disposable income available to younger and more diverse individuals who live within 20 miles of the concert hall that the Belton Orchestra uses has increased in recent years.
Incorrect. This answer choice seems like it might mildly strengthen the argument. If the newly targeted group has more money to spend, then the plan might attract them. However, this answer choice fails to address the objection stated in the argument analysis. We are concerned that the plan will yield a net loss. This answer choice does not respond to that objection. Although it mildly strengthens, it does not strengthen the argument as much as answer choice B.
E. A majority of the members of the Belton Orchestra have expressed enthusiasm for playing the newer works that the president has suggested.
Incorrect. The argument links the plan to bring in new faces, with increased profits. The enthusiasm of the musicians in the orchestra has little connection to either of these two concepts in the argument links. Perhaps we can tell a story where the more enthusiastic the musicians are, the better they will play, which will yield greater numbers of attendees. At best, this answer choice strengthens the argument in a very indirect way. Since we are looking for an answer choice that most strengthens the argument, answer choice B is to be preferred.
There are two takeaways for this question:
1. Identify key assumptions being made in the argument. For strengtheners, the assumption can hide an objection or weak point in the argument and the correct answer will strengthen the assumption, thereby strengthening the argument. In this question, the assumption hid a possible objection related to a possible net loss in attendees despite an increase in new attendees. The correct answer choice strengthened the assumption by responding to the objection.
2. Pay attention to the question stem. It asked for the answer choice that most strengthened the argument. For questions like this, there may be more than one answer choice that strengthens the argument. You must choose the answer choice that responds to the key objections and/or is more direct in linking the premises to the conclusion. Avoid telling elaborate stories that could strengthen the argument. For a “most strengthens” question, the more direct, the stronger. In this question, answer choices B, D, and E all could be construed as strengthening the argument. However, for D and E to strengthen the argument, we would have to create a multi-step story to make these answer choices strengthen the argument. Whereas, answer choice B only requires one step to strengthen the argument.
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