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The probability to choose any of the keyrings out of A, B or C is \(\frac{1}{3}\).

=> Probability of choosing right key from A = \(\frac{1}{3}\) * \(\frac{1}{5}\) = \(\frac{1}{15}\)

=> Probability of choosing right key from B = \(\frac{1}{3}\) * \(\frac{1}{7}\) = \(\frac{1}{21}\)

=> Probability of choosing right key from C = \(\frac{1}{3}\) * \(\frac{1}{8}\) = \(\frac{1}{24}\)

Total outcomes: \(\frac{1}{15}\) + \(\frac{1}{21}\) + \(\frac{1}{24}\)

=> \(\frac{131}{840}\)

The desired outcome: came from the first key chain: \(\frac{1}{15}\)

=> \(\frac{\frac{1}{15}}{\frac{131}{840}}\)

=> \(\frac{56}{131}\)

Answer C
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There are three sets of key rings A, B and C, for a house. The first set has five keys, the second has seven and the third has eight, of which only one key in each set opens the door to the store room. A keychain is chose at random followed by a key from the set. What is the probability that the chosen key opens the door and it came from the first key chain?

A. 131/840
B. 7/24
C. 56/131
D. 75/131
E. 17/24

Explanation:

P(Chosen A and key opens the door)=1/3*1/5=1/15
P(Chosen B and key opens the door)=1/3*1/7=1/21
P(Chosen C and key opens the door)=1/3*1/8=1/24

P( key opens the door & came from 1st chosen set)
= 1/15+1/21+1/24
=131/840

Hence A is the correct answer.
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Prob. of choosing right key from A = 1/3 * 1/5 = 1/15
Prob. of choosing right key from B = 1/7 * 1/3 = 1/21
Prob. of choosing right key from C = 1/8 * 1/3 = 1/24

Total Probability = 1/15 + 1/21 + 1/24 = 131/840. IMO A.



Hi Aritrar4. The question here is: What is the probability that the key came from the 1st Key Chain given that it opens the door.


By Bayes Theorem, P(A given B) = P(A/B) = \(\frac{P(A \space and \space B)}{P(B)}\)


Therefore P(Key Chain A / Opens) = \(\frac{P(Key \space Chain \space and \space Opens)}{P(Opens)}\)


P(Key Chain A and Opens) = \(\frac{1}{3} * \frac{1}{5} = \frac{1}{15}\)


The probability of P(Opens) = \(\frac{131}{840}\) (As found by you)


Therefore the required probability = \(\frac{\frac{1}{15}}{\frac{131}{840}} = \frac{1 \space * \space 840}{15 \space * \space 131} = \frac{56}{131}\)



Option C

Arun Kumar

Thanks for the explanation! This makes sense!I had missed to address the conditional probability in the question.

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