clarification b/w options B and E:
option E:
Let's assume that surgeries
in general are performed unnecessarily 15% of the time.
10-fold geographical variation:
Area A: Performs 100 surgical procedures. (15 are unnecessary, 85 are necessary).
Area B: Performs 1,000 surgical procedures . (150 are unnecessary, 850 are necessary).
Unnecessary surgeries only increase by 135 (from 15 to 150).
Necessary surgeries increase massively by 765 (from 85 to 850).
While unnecessary surgeries is representative of general trend in this example. the bulk of variation in surgeries is driven by necessary surgeries which does not align with the argument's conclusion. The fact to understand here is that merely being representative of general trend does not automatically mean being
the factor behind observed trend. That factor (in this case unnecessary procedures) could still
not be the leading cause while meeting the requirement of being representative of general trend.
option B:
It explicitly sates that the regional variation is unrelated to actual disease rates which increases the likelihood that the true cause behind up to ten-fold variation in surgeries is unnecessary procedures.