Official explanationPre-thinking
Conclusion Clarification
The research concluded that despite the relatively fewer auto insurance claims reported by individuals driving the vehicle having CAT, CAT is not expected to significantly bring down the rates of auto accidents in the long run.
Pre-Thinking Approach
To resolve the paradox, let’s see how we can select a scenario in which both situations can be true without contradicting each other. To do so, we will look at the logical structure, focusing on the seemingly contradictory situations.
• Potential explanations
• Instance 1: What if there is some other factor related to CAT that leads to increased accidents? In such a case, it’s possible that despite the safety provided by CAT, the overall accidents won’t come down significantly.
For example: What if the improved safety of the cars makes drivers take the safety measures for granted? The very fact that they are safer because of CAT can make them negligent while driving, increasing the risk of accident. Thus, such a scenario may explain why CAT is not expected to bring down the rates of auto accidents in the long run.
Answer Choices
Choice A
• Incorrect - Doesn’t explain the situation
o We know that individuals driving XC60 had made fewer claims.
o If their tendency to make claims is high but they still made lower claims, then it could mean that CAT worked very well in avoiding accidents.
o Then, the conclusion that it won’t bring down accidents in the long term becomes even more puzzling.
Choice B
• Incorrect - Doesn’t explain the situation
o Even if some car makers don’t make such arrangements, there might be others who do so and thus CAT can still bring down auto accidents significantly if the proportion of those who make this arrangement is high.
o Also, this statement talks about only the current situation whereas the conclusion of the research talks about the long run. A current impediment can’t be taken as a definite problem in the long term.
Choice C
• Correct
o This option is written along the lines of our pre-thinking per instance1. If many drivers drive carelessly because of the enhanced safety available in the form of CAT, it may give rise to more auto accidents.
o There are other technologies currently in the market that also improve the safety of the drivers, but none of them has been successful.
Choice D
• Incorrect - Doesn’t explain the situation
o The fact that none of the other technologies that improve the safety of the drivers have been successful doesn’t explain why CAT in particular will not have a certain effect, i.e. bring down the rates of auto accidents in the long run.
Choice E
• Incorrect- Doesn’t explain the situation
o This option tells us that research was carried out for a shorter time than estimated. However, we can’t derive whether it’s good or bad that the research was conducted for a shorter time than estimated. The duration of the research is not related to the impact of CAT on the rate of accident.