Monarch butterflies spend the winter hibernating on trees in certain forests. Local environmental groups have organized tours of the forests in an effort to protect the butterflies’ habitat against woodcutters. Unfortunately, the tourists trample most of the small shrubs that are necessary to the survival of any monarch butterflies that fall of the trees. Therefore, the tour groups themselves are endangering the monarch butterfly population.The conclusion of the argument is the following:
the tour groups themselves are endangering the monarch butterfly populationThe support for the conclusion is the following:
Unfortunately, the tourists trample most of the small shrubs that are necessary to the survival of any monarch butterflies that fall off the trees. One aspect of the reasoning that we might notice is that the argument jumps from the fact that tourists trample shrubs necessary for the survival of butterflies that fall from trees to the conclusion that tourists are endangering the entire butterfly population.
Which one of the following would it be most useful to know in evaluating the argument?This is an Evaluate question, and the information mentioned by correct answer will weaken or strengthen the argument.
(A) the amount of forest land suitable for monarch butterfly hibernation that is not currently used by monarch butterflies for hibernationInformation on the amount of land suitable for monarch butterfly hibernation does not help in evaluating the case for the conclusion of this argument.
After all, the conclusion is not about whether there's any possible way for monarch butterflies to survive. It's more specifically that tour groups are endangering the entire butterfly population.
Regardless of whether there's much or little other land on which monarchs could hibernate, the actions of tourists on the land on which the butterflies are in fact hibernating may or may not be endangering the population.
Eliminate.
(B) the amount of wood cut each year by woodcutters in forests used by monarch butterflies for hibernationThis information could indicate whether the monarch population is endangered by woodcutters.
At the same time, the conclusion of the argument is that tour groups are endangering the population.
Information on what woodcutters do does not indicate whether tourists are endangering the population.
Eliminate.
(C) the amount of plant life trampled by the tourists that is not necessary to the survival of monarch butterfliesTourists trampling plant life may not be a great thing. At the same time, this information has no effect on the case for the conclusion of this argument.
After all, regardless of whether the amount of plant life not necessary to the survival of monarch butterflies tourists trample is large or small, that information doesn't indicate whether tourists are endangering the monarch butterfly population since monarch survival doesn't depend on that plant life.
Eliminate.
(D) the proportion of the trees cut down by the woodcutters each year that are cut in the forests used by monarch butterflies for hibernationThis information could indicate whether the monarch population is endangered in general.
At the same time, the conclusion of the argument is not simply that the population is endangered. Rather, it's that tour groups are endangering the population.
Information on what woodcutters do does not indicate whether tourists are endangering the population.
Eliminate.
(E) the proportion of hibernating monarch butterflies that fall off the treesThis choice is interesting.
After all, the argument uses the fact that "tourists trample most of the small shrubs that are necessary to the survival of any monarch butterflies that fall of the trees, to support the conclusion that "the tour groups themselves are endangering the monarch butterfly population."
We can see that, if the proportion of hibernating monarch butterflies that fall off the trees is very small, then it's unlikely that tourists are endangering the entire monarch butterfly population by trampling the shrubs. On the other hand, if the proportion of hibernating butterflies that fall off the trees is very large, then it's likely that tourists are endangering the population by trampling the shrubs.
After all, if, for instance, 90 percent of hibernating butterflies fall from trees and therefore need the shrubs to survive, then the tourists' actions are making the survival of almost the entire population unlikely.
So, the information mentioned by this choice affects the strength of the argument by indicating the degree to which it's true that, by trampling the shrubs, tour groups are endangering the population.
Keep.
Correct answer: E