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The school board assumes that because students in the chess program score higher, making everyone join the program will improve everyone's math scores. it is mistaking correlation for causation.

Now, let's look at the options

A. This one is about following a legal rule, not confusing correlation with causation. Eliminate

B. This one only concludes that startups with early funding are likely to survive, which matches the study. It doesn't force everyone to get funding. Eliminate

C. This assumes that because farms using the wasps had no crop failures, the wasps must completely eliminate crop failure. Same correlation to causation mistake. Keep

D. This goes a step further. It not only assumes causation but also concludes that the govt should force everyone to do it. Matches the original argument very closely. Keep

E. This is just a prerequisite rule. No faulty reasoning. Eliminate

Between C and D, D is a better match because it copies both flaws of original argument.

Ans : D
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A recent study of high school students in our district found that those who participate in the district's after-school chess program scored significantly higher on the State-mandated Essential Skills in Mathematics (ESM) exam than those who do not.

District-wide improvement in average ESM scores are vital to retain public support for the district and to increase the competitiveness of our graduates in the job market.

Therefore, the district should mandate participation in the chess program for all high school students.

Which of the following arguments exhibits a flaw similar to the flaw in the reasoning above ?

The basic flaw: -
participation in chess program -> improved scores in ESM exam -> vital for public support and increased competitiveness
Conclusion: chess program to be made mandatory

There is no cause-> effect relationship between chess and ESM exam and it may be possible that those who have mathematical / reasoning mind are interested in both. There may be a correlation between the two because of some other common factor.

A. Financial Regulator: -
bank can do wire transfers on behalf of its clients - > it complies with regulations mandating strict data encryption protocols
Conclusion: Meridien National Bank does not comply with regulations - > The bank can not do wire transfers for its customers.

There is no flaw in reasoning
Incorrect

B. Tech Journalist: -

Tech startups secure venture capital funding in 1st year -> higher chances of survival -> robust innovation sector and drive growth
Conclusion: - Tech startups securing venture capital funding in 1st year is very likely to survive.

Flaw in reasoning: - higher chances of survival does not mean very likely to survive since both categories may have poor chances of survival with one being better placed than the other.

Reasoning may be flawed but is not similar.

Incorrect

C. Agricultural Advisor: -

Farms that utilized new wasp species for pest control - > show no evidence of crop failure
eliminating crop failure - > stable food prices & national food security.
Conclusion: - crop failure CAN BE COMPLETELY ELIMINATED by adopting this pest control method.

Flaw in reasoning: - Extreme conclusion based on limited evidence

Reasoning is flawed but is not similar

Incorrect

D. Physician:

athlete who run at least 1 marathon in a year - > lower chances of heart disease (leading cause of death) -> massive burden on healthcare
Conclusion: - Government should require all citizens to run marathon annually.

Flaw in reasoning: - Those who are already healthy may be interested in running marathon annually and may not have heart disease. There is no cause -> effect relationship between the two and it may be because of other factor (being healthy). But it may be fatal for heart patients to run a marathon despite the illness.

Correct

E. Vice Principal:

Students who want to study calculus must take pre-calculus since Pre-calculus helps in understanding calculus
Conclusion: - Those who don't take pre-calculus are not allowed to take calculus.

Flaw : - help in understanding does not mean without that one can not understand a topic

Not similar flaw in reasoning.

Incorrect


IMO D
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Structure: Study found that HS students scored better if they participated in chess program. Scoring is important for district and graduates. Therefore, district should mandate participation in chess program.

(A) (E) does not follow the expected structure
(B) (C) it follows for first part but did not follow conclusion. There is no mandate in these options.
(D) follows the structure - hence this is the answer
(C)
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Correct Answer: D


(A) Incorrect. This is sound, conditional logic. (If X requires Y, and Bank doesn't have Y, Bank cannot do X). There is no logical flaw here.

(B) Incorrect. This argument's flaw is confusing a comparative advantage ("higher survival rates") with an absolute guarantee ("very likely to survive"). It does not mandate an action for an entire population.

(C) Incorrect. This argument uses extreme language, jumping from "no evidence of crop failure" in one specific study to claiming it will "completely eliminate the risk" for everyone. However, it does not involve the "self-selection vs. mandate" flaw.

(D) CORRECT. This perfectly mirrors the original flaw. It observes a correlation in a self-selected group (adults who choose to run marathons have less heart disease). It then incorrectly concludes that mandating this extreme activity for the entire population will cure heart disease, ignoring the obvious selection bias: you already have to be incredibly healthy to run a marathon!

(E) Incorrect. This is simply the statement and enforcement of a school policy (prerequisites). There is no flawed logical deduction occurring.
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IMO, B option is correct bcs if you see the logical pattern then it is structured like A causes B that is post school activities (A) causes increase in the scores (B), sole cause, then it mentions about the benefits of a high score on the test and puts down a final conclusion that PSA is mandatory to get a high score.
So, high score-cause-benifits-mandatory
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Answer is D. There is a cause & effect, its effect is cause for another event.

Bunuel
School Board Member: A recent study of high school students in our district found that those who participate in the district's after-school chess program scored significantly higher on the State-mandated Essential Skills in Mathematics (ESM) exam than those who do not. District-wide improvements in average ESM scores are vital to retain public support for the district and to increase the competitiveness of our graduates in the job market. Therefore, the district should mandate participation in the chess program for all high school students.

Which of the following arguments exhibits a flaw similar to the flaw in the reasoning above?

(A) Financial Regulator: Any bank in our country that handles international wire transfers on behalf of their clients must comply with regulations mandating strict data encryption protocols. Meridian National Bank does not currently have the technical ability to encrypt customer data during wire transfers. Therefore, Meridian National Bank cannot legally provide international wire transfers to their customers.

(B) Tech Journalist: Industry surveys indicate that tech startups that secure venture capital funding within their first year have significantly higher survival rates than startups that do not secure funding in their first year. High survival rates are vital to maintaining a robust innovation sector and driving job growth. Therefore, any tech startup that secures venture capital funding in its first year is very likely to survive.

(C) Agricultural Advisor: A recent agricultural study found no evidence of crop failure among organic farms that utilized a new predatory wasp species for pest control. Eliminating crop failure is vital to stabilizing food prices and ensuring national food security. Therefore, commercial farming operations can completely eliminate the risk of crop failure by adopting this pest control method.

(D) Physician: National health data indicates that adults who run in at least one marathon per year have significantly lower rates of heart disease than those who do not. Reducing heart disease is vital because it is a leading cause of death, and its treatment places a massive burden on the healthcare system. Therefore, the government should require all citizens to annually participate in a marathon.

(E) Vice Principal: At our school, students who want to enroll in calculus must first take pre-calculus, because the principles taught in pre-calculus help prepare students for the more advanced topics taught in calculus. Therefore, any student who has not taken pre-calculus, here or elsewhere, will not be permitted to enroll in calculus.

 


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students of high school who participate in chess show better grades in ESM. Better ESM makes students market ready.All schools should make ESM participation mandate. -> There can be external factors



B> Start ups that secure venture funding in first year have higher survival rates. Surival is essential for robust innovation , so it very highly likely thats startups who secure v.f will highly likely survive. -> there can be external fcttors
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I think its B , as in the authors logic show cause and effect logic and in conclusion the author imply that the chess policy implementation is the solution, same i think is tech jurno saying cause of survival of statup is venture funding , conslusion to see if the statup survive pass 1 year mark the indicator is the vc funding
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The Board member's logic is this: students of chess have higher ESM score => then chess cause better scores => we must force everyone to do chess.
However, the error is such that while there may be correlation, it may be inverted. For instance, what if students who are already smart at maths and score higher in ESM are those who are also interested in chess? This would mean higher ESM => then learning chess.

Let's look for the same error:

A is irrelevant, since it says that if you don't have a special permission, you cannot commit actions that are under this permission.

B is close, since it also assumes a cause-and-effect relationship, but it doesn't 'mandate' anything as in the original argument - it just says that 'statistically, chess classes will lead to higher ESM', and this is just re-statement of the original thesis.

C doesn't come to the same conclusion as the original. To be completely parallel, the conclusion should be: therefore, all farms must adopt the new species - and such a recommendation wasn't made.

D is exactly the same as the prompt, since it says: marathons => lower heart disease => everyone must run a marathon since it improves your heart health.
However, it overlooks the chance that only people with healthier hearts run marathons originally - and school board member makes the same error.

E is as irrelevant as A, as it's talking about a blanket permission once again.

Therefore, the answer is D.
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Premise: Chess Program Participants score higher on the math exam than non-participants.
Conclusion: Mandate chess for all Students to raise scores
Flaw: It confuses correlation with causation. Just because student playing chess score good doesnt mean that chess is causing the scores.

Option A) Purely logical application. No correlation or causation issue here
Option B) Doesnt give a mandate or certaintly. Only concludes "likely to survive"
Option C) Takes limited evidence as proof of certainty.
Option D) This one matches perfectly. Observers Correlation: marathon runners have less heart disease. It assumes causation similar to the question: running causes lower heart disease. Then makes an extreme decision to require everyone to run similar to making everyone play chess.
Option E) Gives a logical prerequisite and doesn't have a flawed reasoning
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The answer according to me is B.

The premise that the original paragraph state is as follows:

High school kids who practice chess after hours have higher ESM score as compared to who dont.
Maintaining high ESM score is important for two reasons- 1) to retain public support & 2) to increase the competitveness of graduates
Hence all high school students should take up chess.

two points to note here-
1. The audience base is all high school students.
2. Kids doing chess is important.

Option B does the same.
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Conclusion - Therefore, the district should mandate participation in chess program for all high school students
Because -
A recent study found that participants in chess program scored significantly higher in ESM exam than those who did not
Improvement in avg ESM scores are vital to retain public support and increase competitiveness of the graduates in job market

Only option that is in line with above is Option D) where it is requiring all citizens to participate in marathon like in the question stem while other options doesn't mandate anything
A says, A certain bank cannot legally provide international wire transfers because it is not able to mandate data encryption protocol
B says, A startup is likely to survuve if it secures venture capital funding in its very first year
C says, commercial farming operations can completely eliminate risk of crop failure by adopting a certain pest control method
& E says, any student who has not taken pre-calculus course will not be permitted to enrol for calculus course
Bunuel
School Board Member: A recent study of high school students in our district found that those who participate in the district's after-school chess program scored significantly higher on the State-mandated Essential Skills in Mathematics (ESM) exam than those who do not. District-wide improvements in average ESM scores are vital to retain public support for the district and to increase the competitiveness of our graduates in the job market. Therefore, the district should mandate participation in the chess program for all high school students.


Which of the following arguments exhibits a flaw similar to the flaw in the reasoning above?

(A) Financial Regulator: Any bank in our country that handles international wire transfers on behalf of their clients must comply with regulations mandating strict data encryption protocols. Meridian National Bank does not currently have the technical ability to encrypt customer data during wire transfers. Therefore, Meridian National Bank cannot legally provide international wire transfers to their customers.

(B) Tech Journalist: Industry surveys indicate that tech startups that secure venture capital funding within their first year have significantly higher survival rates than startups that do not secure funding in their first year. High survival rates are vital to maintaining a robust innovation sector and driving job growth. Therefore, any tech startup that secures venture capital funding in its first year is very likely to survive.

(C) Agricultural Advisor: A recent agricultural study found no evidence of crop failure among organic farms that utilized a new predatory wasp species for pest control. Eliminating crop failure is vital to stabilizing food prices and ensuring national food security. Therefore, commercial farming operations can completely eliminate the risk of crop failure by adopting this pest control method.

(D) Physician: National health data indicates that adults who run in at least one marathon per year have significantly lower rates of heart disease than those who do not. Reducing heart disease is vital because it is a leading cause of death, and its treatment places a massive burden on the healthcare system. Therefore, the government should require all citizens to annually participate in a marathon.

(E) Vice Principal: At our school, students who want to enroll in calculus must first take pre-calculus, because the principles taught in pre-calculus help prepare students for the more advanced topics taught in calculus. Therefore, any student who has not taken pre-calculus, here or elsewhere, will not be permitted to enroll in calculus.

 


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Correlation is shown-assumes a mandate-Force everyone to do the correlated activity

A. A rule exists-Bank doesn't meet the rule-Bank cannot offer the service.
There is no correlation. NO
B. VC-funded startups survive more- Survival is important- Therefore funded startups are likely to survive.
Correlation is used to make prediction. NO
C. This shows a different kind of flow. NO
D. Marathon runners have less heart disease- To reducing heart disease is important- So, require everyone to run a marathon.
It has same flow as the question. Correlation-assumes something-require everyone to do same thing. CORRECT

E. Pre-calculus prepares students for calculus-Therefore students without pre-calculus cannot enroll.
This is logical. NO

D.
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option D is correct,
evidence: student who chose to join chess score high in ESM
conclusion: district should mandate chess participation to excel in ESM

here it is assumed that chess in the cause and chess and ESM are correlated

option D:
it identifies the correct correlation mention in the question stem,
that's Marathon and Heart disease are correlated

option B is a trap, that also talks about the same correlation but the result is an assumption not fixed outcome as mentioned in the option D
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i think the ans is option D .
Here ,, conclusion is " District should mandate ....... all high school students ."
i feel my prethinking was following the structure and selected kids ae already high performer in chess and choosing every one of them will not give us or guarantee success ..... option d feels like same structure and kind of same thing they want to establish .
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IMO : D
1. since it has the same reasoning flaw as mentioned in the question.
2. using correlation as a cause.
3. saying the effect is essential
lastly, saying that we should mandate the cause to get the desired effect.
here the flaw is using a mere correlation to justify it as a cause and effect argument.
none other than option D mentions all the three points as mentioned in the question.
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Reasoning Flaw: Correlation != Causation

In this particular case: Students who participate in chess program might be a biased set i.e. They might already be more academically inclined and hence scored higher marks in ESM exam. This does not necessarily mean that after school chess program helped the student in any way to score higher in the chess program.

A similar reasoning flaw is shown in option D. People who run marathon every year might be able to do so because they are already healthy. Running a marathon does not change that. Therefore mandating marathon might not help them in reducing heart disease
Bunuel
School Board Member: A recent study of high school students in our district found that those who participate in the district's after-school chess program scored significantly higher on the State-mandated Essential Skills in Mathematics (ESM) exam than those who do not. District-wide improvements in average ESM scores are vital to retain public support for the district and to increase the competitiveness of our graduates in the job market. Therefore, the district should mandate participation in the chess program for all high school students.

Which of the following arguments exhibits a flaw similar to the flaw in the reasoning above?

(A) Financial Regulator: Any bank in our country that handles international wire transfers on behalf of their clients must comply with regulations mandating strict data encryption protocols. Meridian National Bank does not currently have the technical ability to encrypt customer data during wire transfers. Therefore, Meridian National Bank cannot legally provide international wire transfers to their customers.

(B) Tech Journalist: Industry surveys indicate that tech startups that secure venture capital funding within their first year have significantly higher survival rates than startups that do not secure funding in their first year. High survival rates are vital to maintaining a robust innovation sector and driving job growth. Therefore, any tech startup that secures venture capital funding in its first year is very likely to survive.

(C) Agricultural Advisor: A recent agricultural study found no evidence of crop failure among organic farms that utilized a new predatory wasp species for pest control. Eliminating crop failure is vital to stabilizing food prices and ensuring national food security. Therefore, commercial farming operations can completely eliminate the risk of crop failure by adopting this pest control method.

(D) Physician: National health data indicates that adults who run in at least one marathon per year have significantly lower rates of heart disease than those who do not. Reducing heart disease is vital because it is a leading cause of death, and its treatment places a massive burden on the healthcare system. Therefore, the government should require all citizens to annually participate in a marathon.

(E) Vice Principal: At our school, students who want to enroll in calculus must first take pre-calculus, because the principles taught in pre-calculus help prepare students for the more advanced topics taught in calculus. Therefore, any student who has not taken pre-calculus, here or elsewhere, will not be permitted to enroll in calculus.

 


This question was provided by Manhattan Prep
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