Hi guys / gals - saw the articles on the increase in 2010 deposits at Chicago Booth, and did a quick calculation on what it meant for Round 2 admit rates.
Worst case scenario: my calculations suggest that we could see an approximately 20-25% decline in Round 2 admits as compared to Round 2 of last year (which would equate to around 120-150 less admits than last year) given the 40% increase in deposits from Round 1 applicants. This would be because the the full year yields will be higher this year. The calculations are below. The numbers are subject to significant change based on the key assumptions.
Key assumptions are:
1) +40% increase in yield in Rd1
2) +15% increase in yield in Rd 2 (expect that given the +40% inc. in Rd 1, admissions will expect higher yields in Rd 2 as well)
3) Increase in deposits equates to increase in yields and eventually, matriculation
4) Chicago Booth doesn't significantly increase class size, in my #s, class size creeps up insignificantly to 581 from 575.
5) Rd 1, Rd 2, and Rd 3 application distributions are approx 35%, 60%, 5% respectively
6) # of total apps, and other class parameters are roughly the same as last year.
Have attached a pdf of the calculations so thats its easier to view than in the message.
Forecasted Chicago Booth Admit & Matriculation Rates for Class of 2013 Actual Baseline Assumed Assumed Assumed Effective R2 Change
2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 vs. Full yr
Full Yr Full Yr Rd 1 Rd 2 Rd 3 Full Yr in 2009
# of Apps 4,299 4,299 1,505 2,579 215 4,299
# of Interviews 2,100 2,100 735 1,260 105 2,100
# of Admits 950 950 333 416 16 764 -20%
# of Matriculates 575 575 282 289 10 581
I-view % 48.8% 48.8% 48.8% 48.8% 48.8% 48.8%
Admit % 45.2% 45.2% 45.2% 33.0% 15.0% 36.4%
Yield Rate % 60.5% 60.5% 84.7% 69.6% 60.5% 76.0%
Submit Distrib % * 35.0% 60.0% 5.0%
Y-o-Y Inc. in Matric. 40% 15% 0%
* Submit Distrib is approximate for 2009, and assumed to be the same in 2010
** Note: I am assuming that the 40% increase in deposits holds true. If there are significant % of withdrawals, the waitlist #s
will be affected. The 40% number is from the Poets & Quants post referenced a few posts ago.
Round 2 & Round 3 admission rates are calculated. Given the increase in yield rates, I am assuming that the admit % rates will
be lowered, and that the Booth admissions committee will also assume an increase in yields for Round 2.