Understanding the argument -
Under the agricultural policies of Country R, farmers can sell any grain not sold on the open market to a grain board at guaranteed prices. - Fact
It seems inevitable that, in order to curb the resultant escalating overproduction, the grain board will in just a few years have to impose quotas on grain production, limiting farmers to a certain flat percentage of the grain acreage they cultivated previously. - Fact
Suppose an individual farmer in Country R wishes to minimize the impact on profits of the grain quota whose eventual imposition is being predicted. If the farmer could do any of the following and wants to select the most effective course of action, which should the farmer do now?
So, the quotas have not been implemented. They will be in the future. But the Farmer knows now. So what should the farmer do between now and then (when the actual implementation happens)? What is the objective? "to minimize the impact on profits of the grain quota." This is important because we are not focusing on "minimizing the impact on profits" alone. That could be for many reasons, such as good rainfall, fertilizer subsidy, cheap labor, or cheap or even free electricity. We are explicitly focussing on "GRAIN QUOTAS" and how to "minimize the impact on profits" in light of "grain quotas."
Option Elimination -
A. Select in advance currently less profitable grain fields and retire them if the quota takes effect. - Select "in advance," "on the night of quota implementation," or "even after the implementation of quotas" is immaterial.
Say the farmer's current profit from a cultivable land of 100 access is $200,000/- at a revenue of $1 million and cost of $0.8 million. For the sake of discussion, the quota states the farmer can only use 50% of the cultivable land. If we assume linearly, the land would now be 50 access. Profit is $100,000 at a revenue of 0.5 million and cost of $0.4 million.
So the farmer decided "in advance," which 50 access to cut. The farmer's profit will be $100,000/-
Or the farmer decides "on the night of quota announcement" which 50 access to cut. The farmer's profit will still be $100,000/-
Or the farmer decides "after the quota announcement" which 50 access to cut. The farmer's profit will still be $100,000/-
Has anything changed? No. We need some innovative solutions. Let's look at the option D to solidify our learning here.
The farmer immediately buys 100 access to cheap marginal, barren, or non-productive land. So now, between now and the time the quota goes into effect
Farmer's Land is - 200 acres.
Say the profit is $250,000/- at a revenue of $1.25 million and a cost of $1 million.
Now, Qutas goes into effect. The farmer shows that he/she is not using the 100 acres of barren land he/she bought and is now happily cultivating the 100 acres they were cultivating.
So how does it look like -
Farmer's Land is - 100 acres.
Say the profit is $200,000/- at a revenue of $1 million and a cost of $0.8 million.
Now, compared to the scenario highlighted by option A, this is better? Not only better but the best. That is why option A is a classic Distortion.
B. Seek long-term contracts to sell grain at a fixed price. - They already have fixed contracts with the government. Moreover, what is the scope here? "to minimize the impact on profits of the grain quota." Did the grain board say farmers with long-term fixed contracts will not come under this quota? No. So, this is out of scope.
C. Replace obsolete tractors with more efficient new ones. - The scope is "to minimize the impact on profits of the grain quota." The grain quota is key here. We are not concerned about the profits because of "good rainfall, fertilizer subsidy, cheap labor, or cheap or even free electricity blah blah." At best, it is out of scope.
D. Put marginal land under cultivation and grow grain on it. - ok.
E. Agree with other farmers on voluntary cutbacks in grain production. - The scope is "to minimize the impact on profits of the grain quota." Did the grain board say those who voluntarily cut back will not come under the quota? No. So, this is out of scope.