imhimanshu
Hello Experts,
I am having a hard time understanding this argument.
The argument says that they want to check the effect of SO2 on the growth of plants grown respectively in urban and in rural areas.
Now, the students are doing an experiment in green houses and they have filtered the S02. Now, isn't it the case that the plants should grow at equal rates because the only thing that hampering their growth was SO2. However, they have found that the difference in growth is still there. How come this be possible.
In nutshell, isn't the experiment itself is erroneous. that is, if you want to see the impact of sulphur dioxide on the growth rates of plants, and you are removing the SO2 from the atmosphere, then how can you judge the impact.
Please help.
Thanks, imhimanshu
Dear Himanshu,
I'm happy to help.
I don't know how much you have studied experimental design or have been involved in the design of scientific experiments. Demonstrating correlation is a very very easy thing to do --- one experiment, or one observational study, is enough. Demonstrating causality, by contrast, is a monstrously difficult task --- sometimes it takes years, or even decades. For example, in establishing the link between cigarette smoking and cancer, the correlation was well measured from the late 1950's onward, but conclusive evidence of causality was available only in the 1990's, only after molecular biology had made substantial advances. Suffice it to say: one never can conclude causality from only one experiment.
In studying the effect of SO2 on plants, a causality question, there are several questions to answer, and this experiment is a very well designed experiment to test
one set of those questions. True, it's not the only experiment we could conduct, and if we really were interested in rigorously demonstrating causality, we would have to do a wide variety of experiments, some of which involved absolutely bombarding plants with SO2. This experiment, eliminating SO2 from the controlled environment, is one valid experiment, just not the only possible one. If SO2 and
only SO2 were the difference, then we would expect the plants with no SO2 to grow at exactly the same rates in both places.
NEVER be so literalist as to think that an experiment testing for one factor won't unexpectedly be influenced by another factor. That happens all the time in experimental design --- you try to control for everything, and sometimes that works, but sometimes a factor you never even considered turns out to make the crucial difference. Some great discoveries in the history of science have happened precisely in this way. In this experiment, we eliminate the SO2, and the plant growth is still different, which lets us know --- in addition to the SO2 levels, there's also
something else that affects the growth of these plants. Then, the important question becomes --- what is that "something else", and
(D) provides a possible answer to that question.
Does all this make sense?
Mike