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ChiranjeevSingh
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^^ Option D DOES break the chain by introducing a new variable (FUTURE population rise)

Thereby, the chain in the purple circle is BROKEN

If you increase taxes --> population will reduce temporarily. However, that population reduction will be re-compensated by population rises in the future.

---------

On a side note -

I understand that there are two possibilities within option (D)
(#1) The population increase happens around Stonebridge
(#2) The population increase will happen in Stonebridge.

** Note – the presence of two scenarios (#1 and #2 - above) in (D) is not enough to cancel out (D). Remember we are not looking for an answer choice that 100 % is a weakener. Just having the possibility to weaken (i.e. 1 out of 2 plausible scenarios) is good enough for GMAT questions
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jabhatta2
^^ Option D DOES break the chain by introducing a new variable (FUTURE population rise)

Thereby, the chain in the purple circle is BROKEN

If you increase taxes --> population will reduce temporarily. However, that population reduction will be re-compensated by population rises in the future.

---------

On a side note -

I understand that there are two possibilities within option (D)
(#1) The population increase happens around Stonebridge
(#2) The population increase will happen in Stonebridge.

** Note – the presence of two scenarios (#1 and #2 - above) in (D) is not enough to cancel out (D). Remember we are not looking for an answer choice that 100 % is a weakener. Just having the possibility to weaken (i.e. 1 out of 2 plausible scenarios) is good enough for GMAT questions

You're ignoring the last link in the chain: ---->The government SHOULD NOT RAISE PROPERTY TAXES.

Weakening the argument does not JUST mean the chain reaction the author lays out has broken. Weakening the argument could also mean 'this chain reaction you mention does not necessarily mean the government should NOT raise property taxes. Maybe they should, DESPITE the chain reaction?"

This is more in line with what GMAT Critical Reasoning usually deals with. The chain reaction here is the PREMISE. The "Should not raise property taxes" is the conclusion. The biggest CR question to ask is "Why might the conclusion be false EVEN IF the premises are true?"

We know people will leave if property taxes are increased, but if people will ALSO leave if infrastructure crumbles... Welp, we then have to choose from our best bad options. We'll grant the argument that we'll lose people by raising property taxes, but maybe we'll lose more people if we *don't*, and if that second world is true, then we SHOULD increase property taxes. A introduces the possibility that the second 'world' might be the case.

(D), if anything, *strengthens* the argument that they should not raise property taxes. "Okay, we've lost some people in the short term, but in a few years we'll get a nice influx. No reason to drive anyone off by raising our property taxes now."

You're using D in the following way:

"Demographers project that there will be lots of people moving, so we can raise property taxes but NOT lose our population, because people are moving here."

But this presumes that altering the property tax *doesn't change the demographers projection*. The demographers CURRENTLY project an influx, but if increasing property taxes drives away current residences, it might dissuade future residents from moving there.

And more broadly--D is trying to get you to throw out the premise. I can't say this is NEVER the right answer in a 'weaken' question, but it's usually not.

A is the better answer, here.
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Thank you so much Reed. Just some thoughts.

ReedArnoldMPREP
Weakening the argument does not JUST mean the chain reaction the author lays out has broken. Weakening the argument could also mean 'this chain reaction you mention does not necessarily mean the government should NOT raise property taxes. Maybe they should, DESPITE the chain reaction?"


The red interested me. I thought the best way to weaken the conclusion was the 'break' the chain reaction. I thought the yellow was "sidestepping" almost by telling us "well the grass is NOT GREENER on the other side"

While I agree the chain reaction is a premise – an introduction of a “NEW FACTOR” which the author did not think about (When making the chain reaction) is a legitimate weakening strategy.

In this CR problem - premises were MOOT because of the introduction of new evidence / new research (atleast thats what the Manhattan expert mentioned)

I thought (D) kind of did the same thing by bringing in "new variables/ new factors" into the chain reaction.

ReedArnoldMPREP
We know people will leave if property taxes are increased, but if people will ALSO leave if infrastructure crumbles... Welp, we then have to choose from our best bad options. We'll grant the argument that we'll lose people by raising property taxes, but maybe we'll lose more people if we *don't*, and if that second world is true, then we SHOULD increase property taxes. (A) introduces the possibility that the second 'world' might be the case.

I agree on the blue

(A) introduces us to the possibility of two ‘worlds’
World 1: raise taxes and population reduces
World 2: keep taxes the same and infrastructure crumbles (presumable people will ALSO LEAVE)

Would you agree, we dont know if World 2 is BETTER than World 1 ?

ReedArnoldMPREP
(D), if anything, *strengthens* the argument that they should not raise property taxes. "Okay, we've lost some people in the short term, but in a few years we'll get a nice influx. No reason to drive anyone off by raising our property taxes now."

Not sure I agree on the purple. I don’t see how (d) **strengthens** the conclusion.

Its only possible if we think of this scenario playing out
- Okay, we have ALREADY lost people
- Let’s not make the problem worse (by increasing taxes)
- We know, we have ALREADY lost people but this past problem will **self correct ** with the influx of people
- Hence, lets not increase taxes at the moment

Is the above, the scenario you were thinking about when you mention (D) could “Strengthen” the conclusion ?

ReedArnoldMPREP
And more broadly--D is trying to get you to throw out the premise.

Not sure I agree on this.
(D) doesn’t tell us throw out the premise
(D) works well with the chain reaction.
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Quote:
The red interested me. I thought the best way to weaken the conclusion was the 'break' the chain reaction.[/b]

It would weaken the conclusion, but it's a much less common GMAT game than the one I refer to.

Quote:
I thought the yellow was "sidestepping" almost by telling us "well the grass is NOT GREENER on the other side"

That's not sidestepping. This is what CR is usually about. "Maybe the conclusion is NOT true" is, like, the big thing to ask on CR. And usually, you should ask, "Maybe the conclusion is NOT true, EVEN THOUGH the premises are true."

Quote:
In this CR problem - premises were MOOT because of the introduction of new evidence / new research (atleast thats what the Manhattan expert mentioned)

Yeah, this is a good example that what I'm saying does not ALWAYS happen. It's hard to deny that the right answer to that question introduces a new piece of information that raises doubt to the premise. I could play really annoying games and wonder if 'preventing migration... between 18,000 and 11,000 years ago' really means *every year* in that range, but I think that's a little too pedantic. I think the reasonable read of that premise is that "there was no human migration [in this way] for the 7000 year range in question," and then the right answer comes in and says "ACTUALLY there was one way that opened up towards the very end of that range."

So, yes, sometimes the right answer questions premises. But it's rare enough that when it happens I get annoyed at the GMAT, since the rule is so often "Don't doubt the premise."

But I don't think D even actually weakens the premise. I think it's written to make you *think* it does, but it fails, because of the following points.

Quote:
I thought (D) kind of did the same thing by bringing in "new variables/ new factors" into the chain reaction.

You didn't mention this part of my reply:

Quote:
You're using D in the following way:

"Demographers project that there will be lots of people moving, so we can raise property taxes but NOT lose our population, because people are moving here."

But this presumes that altering the property tax *doesn't change the demographers projection*. The demographers CURRENTLY project an influx, but if increasing property taxes drives away current residences, it might dissuade future residents from moving there.

This is the death knell of D as a weakener. If D said "There will be an influx of population in a few years even if we raise property taxes," it would weaken the argument. That's not what it says. It says demographers project an influx in population. But that's a projection based on *current* information. If we change things by raising property taxes... We already know for sure that increasing property taxes will drive off current residents. I don't see why these potential newcomers won't be affected in the same way, and will decide not to move here.

Imagine a more extreme but similar argument.

"Our town's sewer system has a chance of backing up and, if it does, for the next few years raw sewage will flow in the streets. If that happens, our population will drop, and we'll lose the needed tax revenue to fix the issue."

I think you'd obviously say that "Demographers expect the population to rise in the next few years" doesn't weaken that argument. It's the same thing you're trying to do here. "If we raise property taxes, people might move away... but demographers expect a population influx so we won't lose tax revenue."

They probably won't expect any longer if:
--we raise our property taxes significantly enough that it drives off *current* residence
--our sewer lines break and flood the streets for years.

Quote:
I agree on the blue

(A) introduces us to the possibility of two ‘worlds’
World 1: raise taxes and population reduces
World 2: keep taxes the same and infrastructure crumbles (presumable people will ALSO LEAVE)

Would you agree, we dont know if World 2 is BETTER than World 1 ?

With the current info. we have, no, we don't know which world is 'less bad.' But before answer 'A,' we don't have justification to think world 2 could even happen. But the big question we need to ask is, "Could NOT raising property taxes actually end up being worse than raising them?"

So, World 1 could be worse than world than World 2, and answer A introduces new information that makes me think World 2 could exist. So if we have justification that World 2 could exist, and World 2 could reasonably be worse than World 1, then the argument that we should not raise property taxes is weakened.

We go from an argument that gives no reason to think we shouldn't raise property taxes, and answer A that makes us wonder 'maybe we SHOULD raise property taxes,' so the conclusion that we shouldn't raise property taxes is weakened.

Quote:
Its only possible if we think of this scenario playing out
- Okay, we have ALREADY lost people
- Let’s not make the problem worse (by increasing taxes)
- We know, we have ALREADY lost people but this past problem will **self correct ** with the influx of people
- Hence, lets not increase taxes at the moment

Is the above, the scenario you were thinking about when you mention (D) could “Strengthen” the conclusion ?

That is why I think D (and I specified 'if anything') strengthens the argument. It implies that any population lost has chance of being recovered if we just don't do anything, so let's not raise property taxes, drive off MORE people and potentially drive off the people who are expected to come. This strengthens the conclusion "we shouldn't raise property taxes."

Quote:
Not sure I agree on this.
(D) doesn’t tell us throw out the premise
(D) works well with the chain reaction.

The way you're trying to use D is to say "Actually the chain reaction that is your premise for "we should not raise property" taxes is broken, because if we raise property taxes D says that we actually WON'T lose even more population," which is an attempt to throw out the premise.

But for the reasons stated above, D doesn't actually even achieve at this. In the 'glacier/human migration' example you linked to, yes, the right answer quite explicitly says "Actually the premise is heavily flawed." Answer choice D doesn't do that, because the current population projections are based on CURRENT property taxes.

Again, you need to parse the difference between "Demographers project that the population of a region that includes Stonebridge will start to increase substantially within the next several years" and "There is good reason to think that the population of Stonebridge will increase substantially within the next several years even if property taxes are increased."

(NOTE: One thing that CR sneaks in that doesn't really appear elsewhere on the test is basic supply in demand. The more something costs, the less people will want it. An increase in property tax is an increase in cost that would decrease demand).
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Hi Reed – thank you so much for the back and forth.

I dont' have any specific question - just some commentary.

ReedArnoldMPREP
It says demographers project an influx in population. But that's a projection based on *current* information

I agree on this bit. demographers projections are based on "current" information.

ReedArnoldMPREP
Answer choice D doesn't do that, because the current population projections are based on CURRENT property taxes.

If I can gently push back – I believe the yellow is bit of an assumption that you are making.

I don’t think we can say the “Yellow” piece for sure.

We don’t know the exact cause for why Demographers are projecting what they are projecting.

Perhaps Demographer’s projections are based on current property tax levels
    ---> So, if property tax levels INCREASE, perhaps demographers will subsequently change their projections

Perhaps Demographer’s projections are based on OTHER REASONS (a new college is coming to the region or a new Amazon HQ is coming to the region
    ---> In that case, demographers MAY NOT change their view even if property taxes go up.

Given we don’t know with ** 100 % certainty**, the yellow highlight bit (from D)

I should have read (D) as – we only know what Demographers think as of now


ReedArnoldMPREP
Again, you need to parse the difference between "Demographers project that the population of a region that includes Stonebridge will start to increase substantially within the next several years" and "There is good reason to think that the population of Stonebridge will increase substantially within the next several years even if property taxes are increased."

I agree – the lack of parsing the difference was my big error .

I certainly read (D) in the way the blue is laid out.

I didn’t read (d) in the way the green is laid out

I thought **whatever happens with property taxes ** -- property taxes low / property taxes high --> the demographers won’t change their prediction.
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Quote:
If I can gently push back – I believe the yellow is bit of an assumption that you are making.

I don’t think we can say the “Yellow” piece for sure.

We don’t know the exact cause for why Demographers are projecting what they are projecting.

Yes, fair, "Based on" was imprecise phrasing on my part.

What I meant: "Demographers predictions are based on THE CURRENT PRESENT MOMENT (including whatever they think about property taxes, and, to bring in my previous analogy, the functioning of the sewer system)." But should property taxes increase (or the sewer system completely back up), these current predictions will need to be updated.
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