Let's get ready to RUMBLE-
Passage analysis-
1. R's performed an experiment - airplane pilots were to make a difficult landing in low visibility condition on a flight simulator (flight simulation - not an actual flight but a pseudo scenario often used for training and testing )
2. Result - A greater PERCENTAGE of pilots were successful in landing. when? When UPA logo was present. That implies a lower percentage of pilots were successful when no UPA LOGO present.
3. UPA - largest organization.
4. R's hypothesize - success is due to the LOGO which instills confidence in the pilots as in a similar condition while training at UPA they were successful. IN short - SUCCESS at UPA training+LOGO = greater probability of success at landing.
Inferences- 1. lower percentage of pilots were successful when no UPA LOGO present.
2. The pilots mentioned were UPA students.
3. Not a plane causal relationship but a
sum of two variables lead to one.Question stem analysis-
we are asked for a s
tatement or a data point that would make us believe more in the interpretation of the result ie. the hypothesis / the causal relationship . Thought process-
the conclusion is the hypothesis - The logo+ the success at UPA lead to greater success rate at landing.
Now in what scenrio will this relationship be false or may not be true?
1.If the same pilots were used for exp 1 ( NO LOGO ) and for exp 2 ( LOGO ). in this scenario the probabilty of causal realtionship lessens as another probable cause which is PRACTICE OR THE CONFIDENCE IN SECOND ATTEMPT. this will break the hypothesis.
2. What if the SIMULATION ENVIRONMENT itself instilled the pilots with a carefree or no tense environment. ( EVER WATCHED TOM HANK'S SULLY ? ) what if in the real flight the pilots fail or show no greater success rate regardless of the presence of the logo.?
3. The researchers explicitly mention in their hypothesis that not just the LOGO but the confidence it instills in the PILOTS WHO WERE SUCCESSFULL IN UPA TRAINING leads to the result. Now what if we attack one part of the cause ie. consider pilots who were not successful/failed and still were among the percentage who were successfull with LOGO. this will break one of the part and hence the entire cause because as I said the result is a sum of two variables. LOGO + SUCCESS at training.
Any of the above would cast doubt on the hypothesis and hence any answer choice that would negate these thoughts is the answer.
Answer choice analysis-A. The likelihood that a pilot landed successfully during the simulation increased with the number of hours of training received regardless of whether the logo was displayed. -
WEAKENS. In line with thought 1. ( in a way )B) The researchers conducted a similar experiment in which a logo was displayed to some pilots when simulating an engine failure during flight-NO IMPACT-
we do not know what were the results. COULD EVEN WEAKEN THE HYPO.
C ) In conditions with low visibility, pilots must rely more on their instruments to execute a successful landing-
NO IMPACT- We have to strengthen the hypothesis ie the causal relationship .(D) Pilots who initially failed the UPA training on difficult landings were also less likely to complete the landing in the experiment when the UPA logo was displayed.-
Negates thought 3. The answer.(E) Pilots who had not received training from the UPA were more likely to execute the landing successfully when the UPA logo was displayed -
IN A WAY WEAKENS. The answer choice eliminates the existence of one part of the cause and states that one part leads to the result. Hence not a strengthener.hope I'm right.