So according to beatthegmat (I'm using their stats because I find them easier to interpret than our spreadsheet), here are the numbers. This is the split of 81 applicants who interviewed:
Accepted: 20
Waitlisted: 15
Rejected: 12
No Status: 34
If we exclude those who have not updated their status, we get an interview-accept rate of 43% and an interview-WL rate of 32%. I read somewhere that ~40% of those interviewed typically get in, so I think this is in the ballpark. It's a bit high because those who did not update their status are more likely to be a WL or reject than an accept.
In any case, with 30% of interviewed candidates sitting on the waitlist, it seems the odds are pretty thin for us. Onto round 2...