What does the (alleged) looming recession mean for an MBA Applicant?

It is a good and interesting question. I feel it is easy to make it positive or negative. One of those glasses half full/empty things.

Positive:

• BSchool is a good place for MBA applicants to weather the 2 years of rough seas, making opportunity cost less for many
• H1B applications will drop, allowing one who is able to secure a spot to get a work permit without a lottery
• MBA is very popular and hot during recessions, so it brings a lot of new blood and highly competitive applicants. The concept that all ships rise with the tide
• At the same time, applying at the peak of the economy/market usually means a lot less competition for BSchool seats and so candidates with lower scores/experience may be able to get in

Negative:

• The biggest issue is Recruiting. Depending on when you graduate & enter the work force, it may be hard to find a match for the job/internship. During the last recession, many had to take unpaid internships or lower paid options, which makes a big difference in a student's budget. Same way if you start at a lower pay scale, your pay will suffer for a while
• Applications will spike, so if you are applying after the recession kicks in, it will be very competitive
• Minor concern but borrowing for school can be trickier during the recession

In the past, during every recession, the number of applicants goes up and during the recovery, the number of MBA applicants goes down, so I would expect that with the next recession, the US applications will go up if the recession hits the US economy (which usually in my experience if the US is in recession, the rest of the world follows soon enough). International applications will also likely go up as well, though that will be proportionate to the hardship in each of the international locations. As people run out of professional options, they start looking elsewhere and while MBA has big entry costs (prep and take the GMAT, then do the applications, etc), it starts looking more attractive with the lack of other options.

The biggest question is employment and finding a job in 2 years, but many people feel during the recession that things will be better in 2 years than they are today. Nobody can see in the future, however, so as everyone tries to time the economic cycles, some will definitely win and some will lose.

My personal take: It is very hard to time recessions and economic spikes. A war can trigger a recession or the end of one can trigger a recovery, just as quickly. I would definitely have an eye on the trends and what may happen but I would let other things decide your timing. Even during the bad times there are jobs (just not as many) and even during the good times people still go after an MBA. Life goes on. I think currently there are some great opportunities to get into some amazing programs since applications are down and getting a world-class MBA and the experience will last past this and next recession. That experience cardinally changes ones life and it is very safe if you have attended a Top 10 program. Top 20 is equally great if you stay in the US. Lower ranked programs are just as effective at transforming individuals and changing lives, there is just more responsibilities that fall on the applicant's shoulders to network for a job and more opportunities to fail at it as the result.