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# When people predict that certain result will not take place

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Senior Manager
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When people predict that certain result will not take place [#permalink]

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23 Jul 2009, 03:01
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When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.
Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?
(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations.
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials.
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction.

Found this one interesting, I got it right but will like to see others logic behind it as well. Please explain the reasoning.
Thanks,
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23 Jul 2009, 06:06
nitishmahajan wrote:
When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.
Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?
(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action. MAYBE - IF EVERYONE SET GOALS THEN THE RESULT FROM CERTAIN ACTION COULD BE DIFFERENT DEPENDING ON THE GOAL BUT STILL SUCCESSFUL WHEN MET.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations. ABOUT RESULTS NOT ACTIONS
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials. NOT TALKING ABOUT STRATEGIES
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible. OUT OF SCOPE AND DOESNT SUPPORT
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction. NOT ABOUT PREDICTION BUT ABOUT RESULTS

Found this one interesting, I got it right but will like to see others logic behind it as well. Please explain the reasoning.
Thanks,

I think A because the other 4 seems to be either out of scope or just about prediction but not about the results. the question is about different interpretation of results like "I got a good grade" which from A could mean that diff. people set their own goals for "I got a good grade" and it could be 100,90, passing etc.
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03 Jun 2010, 23:48
IMO B.

(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.
[Opposite answer to the conclusion. Incorrect]

(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations.

(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials.
[Strategy and several trials are new info but dont help the conclusion. Incorrect]

(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.
[This looks tempting because of the part ...people believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct..., but the extreme language makes me rule this out. Incorrect]

(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction.
[No mention of Context. Incorrect]

Whats the OA and OE?
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04 Jun 2010, 00:03
It should be D.
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04 Jun 2010, 00:16
Can you explain why D?

nsp007 wrote:
It should be D.

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07 Jun 2010, 10:47
B for me.

I ruled out D for the extreme language.
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06 Nov 2011, 05:46
shaselai wrote:
nitishmahajan wrote:
When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.
Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?
(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action. MAYBE - IF EVERYONE SET GOALS THEN THE RESULT FROM CERTAIN ACTION COULD BE DIFFERENT DEPENDING ON THE GOAL BUT STILL SUCCESSFUL WHEN MET.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations. ABOUT RESULTS NOT ACTIONS
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials. NOT TALKING ABOUT STRATEGIES
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible. OUT OF SCOPE AND DOESNT SUPPORT
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction. NOT ABOUT PREDICTION BUT ABOUT RESULTS

Found this one interesting, I got it right but will like to see others logic behind it as well. Please explain the reasoning.
Thanks,

I think A because the other 4 seems to be either out of scope or just about prediction but not about the results. the question is about different interpretation of results like "I got a good grade" which from A could mean that diff. people set their own goals for "I got a good grade" and it could be 100,90, passing etc.

Hi,
I see this to be A too.
Since, interpretations differ only when the goals of actions are different and thereby, predictions of actions. However, OA looks like D, and I don know why.
D does sound understandably factual, but distinguishing correct and incorrect predictions/actions is subjective according to the given statements and therefore interpretations vary. Hence, D cannot strengthen because, it deals with a special scenario of only miscuing right predictions to be wrong/vice-versa.
It says, distinguishing is impossible, fine. So...? How does it directly account for several interpretations. D is trying to argue in favor of a few predictions and against few others. But, premise seems to be generic and says only ideas/goals differ.

Pls enlighten!
Thanks!
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07 Nov 2011, 03:48
B fo me...
D is tempting but yes I rejected because of extrem language. ...
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07 Nov 2011, 08:43
i went with d.
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Re: When people predict that certain result will not take place [#permalink]

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08 Nov 2011, 03:54
I go with B. Anyone know the OA?
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Re: When people predict that certain result will not take place [#permalink]

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13 Dec 2011, 05:52
1
KUDOS
OA is D

This is the explanation of testluv from BTG
Quote:
In abstract, the argument can be looked at like this.

The first sentence: "When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs."

if action X is not taken, then result Y will not follow. People think that the prediction (no Y) is correct when action X is taken and the result (Y) follows.

In other words, people think that the statement "No X, then No Y" is verified when both X and Y occur. The author's point is that Y's occurence can be due to things other than X (thier simulatenous occurence establishes a mere correlation but not necessarily a causal relationship).

Choices B and C are both outside the scope.

Choice B discusses the SELECTION of action--this is outside the scope as the argument is not at all about WHICH action to take.

Choice C discusses the GOODNESS of a predictive strategy--this is really outside the scope as the argument is not about good vs bad strategies.

If choice D is true--if it is impossible to tell apart a correct prediction/effective action from an incorrect prediction/ineffective action, then it makes more likely the idea that a "result admits of more than one interpretation."

http://www.beatthegmat.com/people-s-pre ... 51038.html

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Re: When people predict that certain result will not take place [#permalink]

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13 Dec 2011, 17:06
tuanquang269 wrote:
OA is D

This is the explanation of testluv from BTG
Quote:
In abstract, the argument can be looked at like this.

The first sentence: "When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs."

if action X is not taken, then result Y will not follow. People think that the prediction (no Y) is correct when action X is taken and the result (Y) follows.

In other words, people think that the statement "No X, then No Y" is verified when both X and Y occur. The author's point is that Y's occurence can be due to things other than X (thier simulatenous occurence establishes a mere correlation but not necessarily a causal relationship).

Choices B and C are both outside the scope.

Choice B discusses the SELECTION of action--this is outside the scope as the argument is not at all about WHICH action to take.

Choice C discusses the GOODNESS of a predictive strategy--this is really outside the scope as the argument is not about good vs bad strategies.

If choice D is true--if it is impossible to tell apart a correct prediction/effective action from an incorrect prediction/ineffective action, then it makes more likely the idea that a "result admits of more than one interpretation."

http://www.beatthegmat.com/people-s-pre ... 51038.html

Yes, I very much feel A, and the rest are OOS.
D it is.
Thanks!
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Re: When people predict that certain result will not take place [#permalink]

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26 Dec 2011, 12:30
D
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Re: When people predict that certain result will not take place [#permalink]

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26 Dec 2011, 23:07
--If people predict X then Y and Y happens then their prediction is valid
--But in reality for Y to happen there might be other conditions then X, or there might be other conditions that go along with X to make the result Y
or there might be no way to distinguish this.

(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.
-- we cant specify the goal, goal is to be reached.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations.
-- out of scope,
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials.
-- nothing mentioned about trials, so out of scope
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.
-- Correct
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction.
-- out of scope
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Re: When people predict that certain result will not take place [#permalink]

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27 Dec 2011, 03:44
tuanquang269 wrote:
OA is D

This is the explanation of testluv from BTG
Quote:
In abstract, the argument can be looked at like this.

The first sentence: "When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs."

if action X is not taken, then result Y will not follow. People think that the prediction (no Y) is correct when action X is taken and the result (Y) follows.

In other words, people think that the statement "No X, then No Y" is verified when both X and Y occur. The author's point is that Y's occurence can be due to things other than X (thier simulatenous occurence establishes a mere correlation but not necessarily a causal relationship).

Choices B and C are both outside the scope.

Choice B discusses the SELECTION of action--this is outside the scope as the argument is not at all about WHICH action to take.

Choice C discusses the GOODNESS of a predictive strategy--this is really outside the scope as the argument is not about good vs bad strategies.

If choice D is true--if it is impossible to tell apart a correct prediction/effective action from an incorrect prediction/ineffective action, then it makes more likely the idea that a "result admits of more than one interpretation."

http://www.beatthegmat.com/people-s-pre ... 51038.html

The original answer cannot be D. It has to be B. In simple words the argument tells us that Result B cannot happen without Action A. Where as the Result B can be the result of some other action and does not necessarily ensure that Action A was the reason for this. So When we want a particular result we should weigh in different Actions, C, D, E rather than just A and then decide which action to take. Now look at statement B in hindsight of this explanation and it will appear as the only solution which follows the same lines.

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Re: When people predict that certain result will not take place [#permalink]

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27 Dec 2011, 03:49
D is so out of scope!!!
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Re: When people predict that certain result will not take place [#permalink]

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27 Dec 2011, 04:01
My Bad......... D is correct.. Sorry for the incorrect posts guys. The original answer is correct.. This really is a tough one...
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Re: When people predict that certain result will not take place [#permalink]

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27 Dec 2011, 19:34
It should be D
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Re: When people predict that certain result will not take place [#permalink]

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