There was a post floating around here not too long ago that listed GMAC's 2008 registration numbers and compared them to last year's numbers. In a nutshell, there was about a 20% increase in registrants from non-US countries, and about a 6% increase with US registrants.
People hypothesized about these numbers and what they may signify. To relate those numbers with this sub forum (the increase in Yale applicants), in my opinion, we might see a larger increase in applicants to schools ranked 10-20 than the top 10 schools - for this year at least. The reason being is the following:
1) H/S/W caliber applicants do realize we're in a recession. Most of them would have looked at those GMAC charts. With the dollar so cheap, they also realize that internationals will find US MBAs pretty cheap. To play it safe, even though they may feel they have a solid shot at H/S/W, they may ALSO apply to Yale/Cornell caliber schools instead of MIT/Kellogg/Columbia.
2) The trend for younger applicants just took off this year (or maybe last year). This has caught many 28-30 year olds by surprise that were under the impression that they could hibernate for a few years after college before even thinking of taking the GMAT. So this pool of applicants is under pressure to get into anything THIS year. That is why they will find Cornell/Yale among their primary choices as opposed to the top 5-10 schools.
3) I see international applicants falling into three broad groups: a) emerging markets applicants, b) European applicants, and c) underdeveloped countries applicants.
a) In my opinion, the 20% increase in GMAC international registrants is probably composed mostly of applicants from emerging markets (India, China, Brazil, Russia, United Arab Emirates (Dubai/Abu Dhabi), and some African countries. In the past, the ideal scenario of those graduates was to find jobs in the US. Now that their countries are doing quite well, they don't mind going back and developing their nations further. They also can afford US MBAs (roughly $150K for the two years). This pool of applicants, in my opinion, would ideally like to get into H/S/W, but I don't think they see it as a necessity as for example, a Goldman Sachs analyst with a BA or BS from a top 10 US university. For this reason, they would be very happy with top 20 schools. Also, business schools might show some love this year to this pool of applicants because at least those graduates WILL find jobs at companies like GS but in Rio instead of Manhattan.
b) European schooling is quite different from American and Canadian schooling. Their programs are usually shorter. For example, their bachelor’s degrees are 3 years, masters 1 year, PhDs 3 years and MBAs 1 year, as opposed to 4 years for bachelors, 2 years for masters, 4+ years for PhDs and 2 years for MBAs in North America. Also, European applicants tend to be older. They can afford plenty with their Euro being so strong, but I see a decline in Western European applicants to top 10-20 schools, and instead they may concentrate on H/S/W or schools in cities like NYC, Boston, Philadelphia, Chicago – I just cannot see Londoners and Parisians living in Hanover, New Hampshire or New Haven, Connecticut (trust me, I know from experience from my college years). I do however, feel that there will be more new-to-the-EU applicants and they may target top 10-20 schools.
c) Underdeveloped applicants: this pool usually wishes to find jobs in the US after their MBAs. In other words, they see their MBA degree as their ticket to moving to the US. Those applicants, in my opinion, may not be too picky with the schools. They may target some regional powerhouses, for example, UT Austin if they wish to get recruited in the oil and gas industry.
4) The value of an MBA is no longer a subjective debate – it’s a fact. An MBA is truly worth the time and money across all fields and all industries. This all good news for schools in the top 10-20.
5) Yale SOM in specific seems to fill a niche that MIT has filled, but in the polar opposite of Yale. If MIT is the Mecca for scientists and engineers, and if those engineering MBA applicants can rub some MIT on themselves through Sloan, then so be it. The same is true for Yale but for applicants with backgrounds in the humanities and social sciences.
6) The financial sector of the US economy might be behind the 6% increase in US GMAC registrants (I’m even surprised the number isn’t higher!). Those applicants would ideally target H/S/W plus NY Stern and Columbia. But Yale and Cornell’s latest IB placements show some promise, and so applicants from the financial sector might be quite interested in these two schools to add to Stern and CBS.
All of those reasons might, in my opinion, translate to more applicants to Yale this year. Getting an MBA is like buying your first stock – you often overkill your research and end up buying into a company that demonstrates confidence. And likewise, Yale appears to be quite confident with their future outlook and that’s why I think they will see more applicants.
Again, take all I said with a grain of salt.